So we stopped the clear downtrend when we made the move to $81 but all that did was stop us from having a lower high (we basically made it to the previous high of the downtrend). I think it is pretty clear that we are not able to start an uptrend and we are going […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Not exactly the day that we wanted to build confidence. We had a chance but it sort of looks more like a range bound bottoming process is more likely than a clear move into an uptrend. Of course, we still have the potential to break lower but I still think a range is more likely […]
September 12th Biotech Update
We could be setting up a higher low but I would be very cautious. If we can remain above these levels and not get down to recent lows it would be a positive sign. It also means that we need to get above $81.50 to set a higher high (at least in terms of starting […]
September 11th Biotech Update
Not a ton has changed. We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them. As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]
September 7th Biotech Update
I do not think things are as dire as they may feel in the sector. Obviously, if the broader markets weaken (and this is traditionally a weak month), then the sector will not be able to withstand it. If you squint your eyes just right, we have actually moved higher than the previous lower high […]
September 5th Biotech Update
I think we are finally out of the riskiest area and are setting up a potential to break the downtrend. I think trading on Friday broke the clear downtrend, but we probably want to see more before declaring it over. Of course, not having the downtrend is different than having an established uptrend. It would […]
August 30th Biotech Update
Teetering? Is that the best way to describe the sector at this point. I thought we had a chance with the FTC news to start the week to try and break out of the downtrend. It is starting to look like all it has done is get us to a point that looks like a […]
August 28th Biotech Update
Is my belief that we make our way to the 52-week lows before finding support to start a trend higher in threat? Possibly. Is it strange that I would think that on what looks like one good start to a week? A little but I do think we have the potential to shift to a […]
August 24th Biotech Update
We got up to $80 on the XBI and it looks more and more like it was resistance and setting up as a lower high. The question is now whether we end up setting a lower low and if so (as I think is likely) will it take us down to that 52-week low level? […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
Nothing is going to change my overall view on the market and the sector, where I think we need to touch that 52-week low to find significant longer-term support. We keep seeing rates going higher and while the cause of that does not matter, the increasing costs of capital always end up being a drag […]
August 21st Biotech Update
Last week could have ended worse for the sector but I do not think anything is saved. I still think we end up testing the lower $70s on the XBI before all is said and done. It looks like the 52-week low is the lower $72s and below that level we would be looking at […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Well, the lower low seems to have been put into place as the sector is acting pretty heavy, which is no surprising given that the broader market appears weak as well. I think we end up get to the 52-week low area for the sector (around 72 on the XBI) before we likely get real […]
August 16th Biotech Update
On a broader market perspective nothing much has changed. We really have no real momentum in either direction but I still think we have a couple of weeks of vacations before people start getting back and volume returns and we get a clearer picture of the sector sentiment or how it is going to developed […]
August 15th Biotech Update
The sector is not doing great nor is it really breaking down. We are perhaps in the post earnings, late summer malaise that drifts. Of course, that does not mean that we cannot have significant movements or price action in particular names but I suspect that we are going to be slow on the trading […]
August 11th Biotech Update
Have we hit a bottom? There seems to have been a clear bounce from a level that looks like it could be support but there also seems to be a clear downtrend with lower lows and lower highs. So this little bounce is good but it needs to get above $85 before we can relax […]
August 10th Biotech Update
I am back but my luggage is still on vacation. Hopefully, I will soon learn of its fate and it will find its way home. I need to catch up on the sector trading and will have more remarks on that later but there is more than enough news to keep me busy with reading […]
July 31st Biotech Update
Momentum. We need to build momentum. We had a good end to the week on the backs of the RETA buyout but a strong day and then back to the struggle is not really that great. It brought us out of the danger zone but we need to get over $87 on the XBI on […]
July 28th Biotech Update
Finally a little bit of traction in the sector and it could be a little relief rally or it could be news related. It is absolutely critical that this is more than an early morning rally that loses steam and we end up red. We are at an area where a lower low is possible […]
July 26th Biotech Update
Not really an inspiring week for the sector so far. The broader sector continues to muddle where we really need some excitement and momentum. I still think we in potential trouble when the broader market corrects. Perhaps we somehow get money when the broader market corrects but we generally go down even more when the […]
July 25th Biotech Update
The sector has me worried a little as it is holding up but cannot follow the market higher. There has been real strength in the broader market but the sector has barely been able to eke out anything. What happens when we get a broader market correction? In some ways, the sector is perhaps next […]
