April 22 Biotech Update

So the sector did not dump into new lows, which is good but we are still a really bad day or a couple of regular bad days away from breaking new lows.  This $126 level on the XBI has acted as support a number of times (in that we have bounced off of it) but […]

April 21st Biotech Update

It is really starting to look like we have set another lower high and are on our way to set another lower low.  I had some hope that we were getting some upside momentum but this just reinforces my view that you need to respect the trend until it is broken and while we have […]

April 19th Biotech Update

We remain in the same spot with the sector.  It has not really given us the clear signal but we really need to break above that $140 level to ensure that we have not made a clear lower high.  There is also another potential higher low being setup around $135.66 or so.  I am not […]

April 16th Biotech Update

Today is modestly important not that we are going to break above an important range or below one but continued momentum higher is sort of key.  We have had a good week so do far but if we stall at these levels it really looks like a clear trend line lower where yesterday has the […]

April 15th Biotech Update

I want to be optimistic and speak to the new upside momentum in the sector and in the immediate term that is accurate.  The issue is that even with all the positive price action we have only been able to get to the middle of the $125 to $140 range that is key for the […]

April 14th Biotech Update

I will try and make this quick today as we have strong storms and who knows if power will hold out.  Luckily there is not a ton of news but that does not mean we are not at an important point.  I am a little torn in how to see the sector.  We bounced and […]

April 12th Biotech Update

Is this the week of decision?  Given that we are much closer to the downside break than upside, if we do get a decision this week it is likely negative.  As such, I think the two most likely scenarios this week are either a downside breakdown or a bounce from these lower levels and move […]

April 9th Biotech Update

Nothing is changing for the sector are we started the week in the middle of two key levels and are basically ending the week within the range and really with no more clarity on where the sector may go than when we started.  We have AACR starting today but I doubt that will have any […]

April 8th Biotech Update

I spent some time this morning looking for something interesting to talk about and there really is not much.  The sector remains in a sort of zone of indecision and that has not changed.  We were a little closer to the downside level with some negative sentiment but we are higher today and I am […]

April 7th Biotech Update

We remain mired in the middle with nothing really to signal the ultimate resolution of this situation. I would simply remain focused on the fundamentals of companies and simply be aware that the broader sector will at some point clarify the next move.  I would be ready for a move higher or lower as I […]

April 5th Biotech Update

While it is possible that this week is decision week for the sector, I am not convinced that it has to be.  There is room above and below for it to tread water and not signal its next big move.  I see the $150 and $125 levels as the key ones to watch and the […]

April 1st Biotech (and MLP) Update

The market certainly feels like it is in a better place and perhaps that is true for the broader market but I still do not see us out of the woods for the sector.  Despite a good bounce the past couple of days we are still in what could be a downtrend and until we […]

March 31st Biotech Update

We are in an interesting spot.  Yesterday started bad but we reversed higher and that continued today.  It feels better with this bounce having a nice follow through.  What is interesting is that we made a lower low despite the reversal., so in reality we seem to have established a downtrend even though we had […]

March 29th Biotech Update

It seems like there is a lot of talk about a major Asian hedge fund blowing up causing forced liquidation and market dislocations.  While it does not seem to be the case that this involves a lot of biotech companies, it does appear tech related and anything this massive will have ripples throughout the market.  […]

March 26th Biotech (and MLP) Update

Yesterday turned out better than I expected.  It was a nice reversal but we have seen this story before and the sector simply has not been able to build off of these moves.  So I had been looking to see if the sector set a higher low and higher high to signal a new bullish […]

March 25th Biotech Update

It is never easy, I guess.  It is always darkest before the dawn.  I am sure there are other phrases that could apply to the market at this point but the fact is that the sector is clearly struggling.  We had the chance to set a higher high and perhaps get some momentum but that […]

March 24th Biotech Update

You probably got the sense that I was leaning towards the sector eventually signaling a new trend higher at some point.  Yesterday did not provide any comfort of confirmation of that lean.  I would not argue that yesterday indicates that we are going to break into new lows but it definitely raises that possibility.  It […]

March 22nd Biotech Update

A more rigorous FDA.  Rising interest rates.  Rising COVID cases in the EU.  Lack of M&A.  A lot of clinical trial failures.  These are the list (probably not comprehensive) of the risks that have been used to explain the selloff in the sector.  None of these have gone away and yet we still have the […]

March 19th Biotech (and Energy) Update

Yesterday clearly did not instill a ton of confidence.  That being said we did not break any lows so the path of setting a higher low and establishing a new move higher is still possible.  The difference is that we are now closer to taking out the lows, which is not a comfortable position (especially […]

March 18th Biotech Update

Is the recent price action in the sector bullish or bearish?  It is really difficult to call it at this point.  It is completely consistent with a bull market for a sector to pullback and consolidate a move higher.  That being said the sector has conditioned us over the past month or so that pullbacks […]