As I noted at the beginning of the week, I generally think that the initial reaction to ABVX’s maintenance data was that investors were missing the forest for the trees. The efficacy package looked exceptional, arguably among the strongest ever generated by a novel oral ulcerative colitis therapy, yet the market chose to focus almost […]
June 2nd, Biotech Update (Really It is Just ABVX)
ABVX entered its Phase III UC readout with clear risk/reward potential and ended with both positive data and new questions. The induction studies had already demonstrated that obefazimod was active, but investors would that efficacy ultimately be differentiated enough to compete in a market increasingly dominated by highly effective biologics and a handful of oral […]
May 28th, ASCO Update
The typical ASCO release excitement is a little tempered this year as much has already been top-lined or in some way disclosed in a small way. In terms of really novel results, I settled on SERENA-6 because it is not really just a drug study. It is a test of whether oncology should begin treating […]
May 27th Biotech Update
I have been posting fairly focused articles but I wanted to take a step back and look longer term and more theme related. The biotech market is beginning to look less defensive and more strategic again. For most of the last three years, the dominant themes were capital scarcity, refinancing risk, regulatory unpredictability, and […]
May 26 Biotech Update, Lily Buying Spree
LLY’s vaccine push is not one deal; it is a portfolio entry. The company announced three acquisitions worth up to roughly $3.8 billion combined: Curevo, LimmaTech Biologics, and Vaccine Company. The common thread is not “vaccines” in the old flu-shot sense. It is prevention of infections that create large downstream disease burdens, i.e. shingles, EBV-associated […]
May 21 Update
I wanted to update you all given the release of LLY Phase III TRIUMPH data, which seems to validate its core architecture. The most important point is not that retatrutide produced approximately 28% weight loss. It is that the model had already identified triple agonism, plateau resistance, and durability of response as the key variables […]
May 13th Obesity Market Update
I am going to continue to flesh out the obesity market and highlight different ways to analyze the data. If there are additional areas you want a deeper analysis please let me know. The obesity market is beginning to suffer from its own success. As more therapies achieve double-digit weight loss, investors are increasingly confronted […]
May 12th, Obesity Analysis
I want to end this set of analyses with a look at the earlier stage assets. So far we have looked at the current market and later stage assets, which leaves the earlier set of assets that can become the next best in class over the next decade. Obviously, these are by definition earlier and […]
May 8 Update, Obesity Trial Predictions
We have looked at the broader obesity landscape but what else can data tell us about the what is coming. This becomes even more difficult because the obesity field is now moving fast enough that static competitive landscapes become outdated almost immediately after publication. Topline datasets are increasingly disclosed through investor presentations, conference abstracts, earnings […]
May 7th Update- Obesity Market Part 2
I wanted to follow up on the obesity market analysis because it leads to a question as to what is next. I will focus on the early clinical stage and highlight two. I would not make a definitive claim that these are the best but they stand out and the more important part is how […]
May 6th, Obesity Market Analysis
This is a different post in that I am going to be focusing on proprietary data and analysis. Below is summary of the findings and then I will talk more generally about the data. This should be of value and if there are particular ways in which you would like to see the data or […]
May 5th Biotech Update
I am going to try and get back into a consistent rhythm in writing and want to jump right into the most important news of the day. The ACACIA-HCM study from CYTK was designed as a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial evaluating aficamten in patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The population largely […]
March 24th Biotech Update
The biopharma sector in early 2026 continues to be defined by a convergence of three forces: capital discipline, strategic M&A, and a renewed emphasis on translational proof. Large pharma is actively acquiring or partnering to backfill pipelines, particularly in oncology and obesity, while smaller biotechs are being forced to demonstrate clear clinical differentiation or face […]
March 20th Biotech Update
The biotech and pharma sector is moving in a more constructive direction in 2026, but it is a selective recovery rather than a broad risk-on melt-up. The backdrop is improving because investors are rewarding companies with mature pipelines, credible late-stage data, and realistic paths to commercialization, while M&A appetite has picked up after a long […]
March 11th Biotech Update
The FDA has been a little active recently and not only from changes but also from controversies. I think that some of the changes certainly could be seen as tailwinds but the increased variability of decisions and actions are perhaps more important. Even if announced changes are positive, when the industry has to make capital […]
February 11th Biotech Update
The still dominated by the metabolic franchise, with GLP-1s representing one of the largest value creation cycles in sector history. One has to think that the fate of this market plays a large part of generalist interest going forward. Shares of NOVO and LLY have been highly sensitive to competitive dynamics, supply constraints, and incremental […]
January 23rd Biotech Update
The sector continues to plod along. I think there is some interesting news with the oral GLP launch and while it certainly has import for the companies involved, I think the sector does best when there is a big launch that creates buzz outside the sector. It is the generalists that really push bull markets […]
January 20th Biotech Update
Heading into JPM, the sector was navigating a transition from volatility toward selective strength. After a challenging 2025 for venture funding and IPO activity, investors showed cautious optimism driven by increased M&A and improved clinical pipelines. Large pharmas continued to balance patent cliffs with new launches, while emerging biotech companies emphasized differentiated platforms in oncology, […]
January 9th Biotech Update- Pre-JPM
Biotech enters the JPM with constructive but selective risk appetite: public equity windows are open intermittently, valuation dispersion remains wide, and financing is available for differentiated clinical assets while earlier or “me-too” stories still struggle to clear diligence and pricing. The macro backdrop is supportive relative to the prior two years, where markets are rewarding […]
December 8th Biotech Update
Over the past two weeks, the biotech market has been shaped by a mix of both supportive macro forces and pockets of volatility tied to shifting risk sentiment. Cooling inflation data and growing expectations for rate cuts have provided a constructive backdrop, improving access to capital and lifting appetite for higher-beta sectors such as biotech. […]
