January 18th Biotech Update

So it looked really bad last Friday and it was quite the comeback rally.  Unfortunately it seems like the broader market is not looking very good and I cannot imagine a scenario with a broader market/risk off move and the sector somehow moves higher.  I guess one can never say never but it seems exceptionally […]

January 14th Biotech Update

It is not going well for the sector.  There just seem to be no buyers at any levels.  I am not sure what will bring the buyers back.  Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN.  I have a hard time thinking through big risks.  Drug […]

January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update

The sector cannot help itself and stress investors.  We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside.  My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise).  Given the lack of really positive news or […]

January 12th Biotech Update

I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped.  There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming.  Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]

January 11th Biotech Update

I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday.  The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows.  The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging.  Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]

January 10th Biotech Update

Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022.  While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference.  I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]

January 7th Biotech Update

We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today.  If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week.  Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]

January 6th Biotech Update

The sector is not having a good start to the year.  I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM.  It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]

January 5th Biotech Update

Well, the New Year started off so well but it feels a lot like last year.  To be fair that is not completely surprising as simply changing the calendar does not alter the fundamentals of the sector.  Yesterday (and the early morning today) feels like rotation in the belief that Omicron will not crash the […]

January 4th Biotech Update

Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]

January 3rd Biotech Update

2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021.  JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data.  Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]

December 22nd Biotech Update

It seems to me that the sector is settling into a lull with the markets as we get to Christmas and then New Years.  We managed to get out a small rally yesterday and have the chance to do it again today as we start red.  While I would like to see more momentum to […]

December 21st Biotech Update

The sector is really trying to confuse me.  I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market.  It seemed to me that they […]

December 20th Biotech Update

We had a good end to last week but we are really just bouncing around at the recent lows.  I suspect we are going to be moving with the market in that if the market rallies the sector moves higher and perhaps outperforms but if the market breaks down we break the lows and likely […]

December 16th Biotech Update

Is it really as simple as interest rates?  All of the thinking through the sector and fundamental analysis and the sector rallied hard on a somewhat more dovish (or less aggressive) Fed.  It looks like the trading yesterday also sets up the potential for a double bottom assuming that we can continue this rally and […]

December 15th Biotech Update

It really seems like we are at the point of the bear market that nothing really matters.  Typically we talk about M&A or data or launches as being catalysts that could bring interest back into the sector.  Nothing seems to work at this point.  There is no big push for drug price reform.  We have […]

December 13th Biotech Update

We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector.  So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues.  There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]

December 10th Biotech Update

We did not get the three days of momentum, which is disappointing.  I understand we had two good days and perhaps in the immediate term we were overbought but one the way down it was relentless and so it is not crazy to think that if we are reversing there could be a long streak […]

December 9th Biotech Update

We had a day that built some momentum and we barely eked out a higher intraday high but we need more and we need to get to that $120-$121 range.  Given how much we have sold off and the relative underperformance that should be pretty easy to reach in a bounce back rally.  Assuming we […]

December 8th Biotech Update

We finally had our bounce start but yesterday has to be the start.  If we end up giving it back today that is not a good sign.  Starting the morning red is OK but we need to close green and build on the momentum that was started yesterday.  There is no reason that the bounce […]