May 17th Biotech Update

It has been a pretty good week for the sector with a nice steady move higher.  It has not be an absolute straight line nor has it been dramatic one but a slow build higher is not too bad.  In some ways, this is better than an accelerating move as this provides more volume at […]

May 15th Biotech Update

This week has not been too bad for the sector. Perhaps my original thought about steady rates being good for the sector will actually pan out.  Of course, that all can change with the next CPI number of Fed talk and so we are still very tied to the broader rate environment (at least that […]

May 13th Biotech Update

While my idea that steady rates would provide some room for the sector to recover and potentially move higher is not quite working out.  Steady rates are not bad for the sector but I still think there are worries about the rate environment and perhaps we need to see a little more confidence that inflation […]

May 10th Biotech Update

Not the best of weeks but also not the worst of weeks.  It would have been ideal to get some momentum to the upside but grinding volume at this level is not awful for the longer term.  Of course, if the next move is significantly lower then this ends up being a level of resistance […]

May 8th Biotech Update

It has been a grinding sort of week.  I do not necessarily see hanging around these levels as necessary bad.  Putting in some time to generate some support is good but that assumes that we eventually continue higher.  I am sort of getting my wish of stable rates.  There seems to be a growing view […]

May 6th Biotech Update

It would have been nice to build on the momentum of last week, but we did not.  Perhaps this is the pause that refreshes or perhaps we get strength later in the day, but it is not the ideal start to the week with the broader markets showing some strength.  To be fair, it was […]

May 3rd Biotech Update

Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day).  This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]

May 1st Biotech Update

I would not say that we got momentum but trading in line with the market (if not a little better in parts) is not the worst scenario.  I will continue to be a broken record with my call on rates and that once they stabilize they sector will finally start to trade more on fundamentals […]

April 30th Biotech Update

A reasonable start to the week but like we were for a long time last year, it is going to take more than a good day to repair the damage.  That being said, it is also going to take rates to stop moving higher.  Ideally, they would start to decline but I also think even […]

April 26th Biotech Update

Well, I sort of do not want to be a broken record on the macro and its effect on the sector. It is what it is and we all know it.  We are at the start of large cap earning season and so I would prefer to focus on the fundamentals and the broader market […]

April 24th Biotech Update

I do not want to be a broken record but we remain in a market driven by macro and not individual stock fundamentals. The one change so far this week (for the better) is that it is driving a broad bounce back in the sector.  Whether this ends up marking a bottom or is simply […]

April 22nd Biotech Update

A fun fact, the 13% decline in the XBI was the 12th worst 30 performance in the 18 year history of the index.  I guess that is not really a “fun” fact but it highlights just how difficult the past month has been.  It is very difficult to be trader or investor in the sector […]

April 19th Biotech Update

Well, I wish something would change but we are back in the rut that was most of later year.  To be fair, we did eventually break out of that rut but I will continue to be a repeating record.  We need rates to break lower.  I think things are getting stretched to the downside (in […]

April 17th Biotech Update

We still wait on the Middle East to see if we need to add another layer of macro worry to the markets.  The longer we go on the more likely tension settle but it still seems to rest on the scale of the Israeli response and whether it compels Iran to respond.  A tit-for-tat spiral […]

April 15th Biotech Update

Did we dodge the Middle East risk?  We did to a certain extent, but I do not think we are completely out of the woods yet.  If Israel decided not to response, then I would be quite confident that the risks are significantly lower but it seems like Israel is going to respond and they […]

April 12th Biotech Update

I sort of figured that even the news of some M&A was not going to drastically change the character of the market.  I am progressively become more pessimistic about the market and sector.  It has little to do with the fundamentals of the sector and a lot to do with the macro structure in which […]

April 11th Biotech Update

Unfortunately, not much has changed since I noted that the sector is back in the interest rate slump.  We were negative for the year and that was completely predicable once the interest rate specter raised its head once again.  There is no chance that we get a sustained rally as long as we are in […]

April 8th Biotech Update

And we are once again dependent on rates and inflation.  Rates are moving higher regardless of what the Fed has been saying as the economy remains stronger than expected.  I think we started the year with the thought that we could see upwards of seven rate cuts, but it has generally been around three to […]

April 3rd Biotech Update

I head out of town, and I come back to a precarious market.  It seems that interest rates are once against front and center for the sector.  The Fed is not talking about raising interest rates and they still have been very clear that the next move will be to cut but the rates themselves […]

March 27th Biotech Update

Well, yesterday was a start that ended in a whimper.  We have had these little starts to a recovery before, but they barely lasted more than a couple of days.  I sort of wonder if we are now in a new range with $98 as the upper boundary.  That would not be the worst scenario […]