October 21st Biotech Update

It continues to be a benign week of trading the sector.  I think the context matters in that given the underperformance even slow neutral weeks feels worse than it is.  We are waiting for that solid move to the upside given how long and far the sector has underperformed.  While it is tedious to have […]

October 20th Biotech Update

The sector feels like it is in a worse place than it actually is.  I think the underperformance compared to the broader market is aggravating especially because this have been happening for awhile.  All of that disappointment aside, the sector does not seem like it is going to breakdown but of course one worries what […]

October 18th Biotech Update

Not a great start to the week both in terms of news and trading.  I think they are linked in that we had a series of bad news and that is impacting the sector.  I do not think any of the news runs the risk of forcing a downside break but certainly it was not […]

October 15th Biotech Update

A muted start to the morning but hopefully we can build on some of the positive momentum from yesterday.  It seems to me that the sector wants to get to that $130 level where it should be some resistance.  I think that level is important in the near term but longer term it is that […]

October 14th Biotech Update

A good morning so far.  It is certainly nice to see and ideally this is where we start to build some momentum.  We seem to have had countless false starts but if you take a step back it almost looks as if this entire year (since about March) has been a range between $120 and […]

October 13th Biotech Update

Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive.  We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down.  We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad.  […]

October 11th Biotech Update

Still fall break with the kids, so I will try and keep this focused.  The sector is off to a good start this week and it is hard to know if this is simply following the broader market, a bounce from support, or a move from some positive news.  It is likely a little of […]

October 8th Biotech Update

The kids have their fall break so I am working from home but wanted to provide at least a couple of thoughts as there has been some news.  It will be very interesting to see if the sector keeps the positive momentum of yesterday after what seems to be significantly negative clinical news.  One might […]

October 7th Biotech Update

Shockingly the sector is rallying with the rest of the market.  It seems like it has been awhile and a little morning rally in a broader market rally is nothing really to write home about but it is a start.  I have been saying that we were at the bottom end of what seems like […]

October 6th Biotech (and Energy) Update

Sentiment around the sector is pretty negative even though I would say that we are not quite breaking down.  We certainly have not developed an uptrend but stepping back it looks like we are in a big range and are currently at the lower end of that range.  We are at support right now and […]

October 4th Biotech Update

The sector is at an odd sort of place.  It seemed to catch a break and had a reversal off of some support late last week and today we are back to the selling.  It does not help that the broader market is not doing well either but at some point the sector has to […]

October 1st Biotech Update

The sector cannot catch a break as we get great clinical news this morning and it will likely end up hurting the sector more than helping.  The question in my mind now is whether the support for the sector is $122 or $118 ranges as one cannot ignore the selling in response to positive news.  […]

September 30th Biotech Update

What seemed like long rumored has come to pass with a decently sized deal in the sector.  The reaction yesterday was quite negative and I think expectations on price got too high.  I firmly believe that if this deal was announced last Monday (before the runup in XLRN started) at this exact same price the […]

September 29th Biotech Update

The sector is hostage to the broader market at this point.  I think if there was at least a neutral broader market environment then the sector would look and feel a lot better.  Between the Evergrande issue and now what is probably fears over the debt ceiling (yet again we have to talk about this), […]

September 27th Biotech Update

We did not get our buyout but certainly have the buyout speculation in high gear.  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the rumor but no deal.  One would have normally thought the rumor and eventual deal would juice the sector but have we gotten to the point where the speculation […]

September 24th Biotech Update

It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it.  I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher.  I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]

September 22nd Biotech Update

With all the drama in the markets this week, I have to say that looking at the sector there does not seem to be a ton of damage done to the chart.  It looks like we have create a little downtrend in September but a breakout of that mini-downtrend could trigger a run to higher […]

September 20th Biotech Update

Not a good start to the week for the markets and it seems related to the Evergrande, which is China’s second largest real estate company that looks on the verge of going bankrupt.  The story is pretty typical with a property developer using too much leverage to grow too fast and get involve in unnecessary […]

September 17th Biotech Update

The sector sort of had that reversal yesterday but it honestly did not seem particularly strong.  We are red this morning so perhaps we can get a stronger reversal today to really put in that higher low but the sector seems a little weak.  I would have thought we would have at least gotten a […]

September 16th Biotech Update

A very sloppy start for the sector but this could end up being a good signal but that would require a red to green day.  We started yesterday lower as well but reversed to end higher.  If we get two days in a row of red to green reversals that seem to establish a higher […]