April 7 Biotech Update

So the crisis is over!  Or at least that is the way the markets are behaving.  It is pretty clear that we are having a reversal of the COVID sell-offs.  The market is moving higher including and perhaps being led by regional banks and all those COVID related names (whether it be treatments, PPE, or […]

April 6th Biotech Update

A good start to the week for sure.  While it is a nice move higher, we remains at critical levels that could be resistance.  For instance $80 on the XBI will likely be important to break above.  It would be something to move above today given that we only reached it on the big spike […]

April 3rd Biotech Update

Guess what?  Job market sucks.  The market dipped a little on that news which I find a little surprising as nothing about it should have surprised.  What was interesting was that the US indicated that its oil producers were willing to cut production as a carrot to get Russia on board.  I do not remember […]

Watching The XBI For The Next Move

SPDR S&P Biotech, NYSEARCA: XBI   It is interesting to see the closing in the XBI today and tomorrow to get the final weekly candlestick. After the sharp decline along with all other sectors in the US markets, the XBI had reached the bottom of $62.94 on March 18, then the technical correction began, and […]

April 2nd Biotech Update

So it has been interesting the past couple days in the market.  There was a lot of buying to end March but I think most saw that as the 60/40 (stock/bond) funds rebalancing.  In other words, the move in the markets with stocks crashing and bonds flying meant that the 60/40 funds needed to sell […]

March 31st Biotech Update

A decent amount to talk about (some good some not so good).  Yesterday I talked a little about the potential for the bottom to be in and data from China is actually supportive of that thesis.  The PMI both bounced back in March and were better than expected.  To be fair, a positive PMI survey […]

March 30th Biotech Update

The market continues higher albeit at a slower pace.  Clearly the epidemic is not getting any better so why is the market holding up relative well?  First, it could simply be the dead cat bounce from oversold conditions.  I suspect that most think that is the likely scenario and that is not necessarily wrong.  Second, […]

March 27th Biotech Update

Today is going to be an interesting day.  The news has not been good this week but the market has had a nice recovery.  I would expect that the news does not get any better this week and Boris Johnson has actually tested positive for COVID.  We open lower and it seems setup well for […]

March 25th Biotech Update

I am still trying to get setup at home.  I order a new desktop because I cannot stand writing on a laptop (I know I am a grumpy old man already).  In any case, I will try and get more notes out on this laptop even though it drives me a little crazy typing on […]

March 17 Biotech Update

Do we get our turn around Tuesday?  Timing is about right in terms of the oversold conditions and that they are almost historically oversold.  A true dead cat bounce would be absolutely epic in the short squeeze.  I am not talk a couple of percent or even 5%.  When the bounce happens it should be […]

March 16th Biotech Update

It seems like the market and country is starting to come to terms with the scale of the epidemic and its economic impact but the trend remains until it is broken.  The trend is crash at this point.  I will be putting stink bids in trying to catch flash crashes as I still think those […]

March 12 Biotech Update

Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work.  Will perhaps try again tomorrow.  I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased.  In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate.  All of the negatives for the market remain.  The President had an […]

March 11 Biotech Update

We remain in a macro world but even that remains difficult to trade.  The large intra-day moves puts pressure on trades as it could hit stop-loss levels or convince you that the trade is moving too far away from you.  In addition, the administration is talking about stimulus and help but it cannot help everyone.  […]

March 10th Biotech Update

We open green, which I am not sure is the best to start a counter trend rally.  Keep in mind that with volatility this high, a 3% move is not actually that big or meaningful.  Usually one would see a 3% move in a day as a strong signal but at these levels of volatility, […]

March 9th Biotech Update

We remain in a macro world with the twin barrels of COVID and an oil price war hitting the market.  This is the first time this entire selloff that I sense there is real panic.  That being said I still think we entire a bear market which would be $271 on the SPY but keep […]

March 6th Biotech Update

We remain (obviously) in a macro market and that means correlations remain very high.  Interesting that today the sector seems to be a relative outperformer and seems to be the case this week.  The sector is probably one of the least exposed to the economic impacts (at least at first), so it is not surprising […]

March 4th Biotech Update

Who would have thought that a Joe Biden Super Tuesday victory would cure the corona virus?  The market is rallying on the election as it seems to put Biden back in as the democrat frontrunner.  I suspect that the market would strongly prefer Biden over Sanders as the economy and market actually did pretty well […]

March 3rd Biotech Update

I sure hope that yesterday was not the best that the bulls could do.  We need that bounce to continue for a couple of days and I suspect that will be the case.  There remains a window of opportunity to rally before we start seeing school and work closures in the US, which I believe […]

March 2nd Biotech Update

It seems like this week is setup for a nice counter trend rally.  We might actually get a face ripping rally.  Why?  While the virus continues to spread, a lot of spread is now priced into expectations.  The market is oversold.  We are likely to see continued spread but nothing to put the epidemic to […]

February 28th Biotech Update

We in a macro market.  COVID days up and COVID days down.  I think it is going to be difficult to find stocks that run counter to the macro moves, ie there will be days when the market moves higher and COIVD names lower and vice versa.  I think the only way to avoid that […]