December 2nd Biotech Update

We remain in a range, although there certainly seems to be a pattern with the larger caps outperforming.  As I have noted many times, I suspect that if generalists are going to enter the sector they will first do it through the large caps and then down the capital structure to SMID.  We need generalists […]

December 1st Biotech Update

Not surprised by the positive day given the news.  Positive clinical data.  M&A interests.  Add in seasonality and it was a nice constellation of events.   I wonder what happens later in the month as we get closer to tax loss selling.  This is a sector that certainly has its share of tax loss selling potential […]

November 30th Biotech Update

Are we setting up for the Santa rally?  It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM.  I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]

November 22nd Biotech Update

Not the greatest start to the week but I have a hard time reading too much into this week’s trading.  I did notice that large caps outperformed SMID and that has been my theme for a little bit.  I still think investors come back into biotech first through large caps and in some ways the […]

November 21st Biotech Update

This should be a week of lower volume as people get ready for the Holiday.  These can be a little more volatile, especially when volume dries up later in the week.  Of course, it could end up simply being a boring set of relatively flat days.  If we do get a bigger move, I would […]

November 14th Biotech Update

We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related.  It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]

November 7th Biotech Update

The data seem to indicate that inflation has not clearly broken and the Fed continues to talk about rising rates and keeping them high until it breaks.  I think I saw that expectations are now that rates peak in June 2023, which is longer than the previous expectation of March 2023.  As long as the […]

November 3rd Biotech Update

Guess what?  The Fed speaks and the market declines (along with the sector).  As I said the earnings season has been quite good for the sector but as I have also said one should not try and fight the Fed.  As long as the perception is higher rates for longer, then I do not see […]

November 2nd Biotech Update

The sector has done pretty well this week considering the broader market and the concerns over the Fed.  I still think we should remember not to fight the Fed but the fundamentals for the sector in terms of the earnings have been generally positive.  There were some outliers like ABBV but for the most part […]

October 31st Biotech Update

A slow start to the week.  It is not a bad start but a little weakness after a nice little run last week is a little disappointing.  That being said we ran right up to the upper end of the range that seems to have developed and so it is not crazy that we struggle […]

October 28th Biotech Update

We were hitting the upper end of the range and so it is not completely surprising that we were a little weak.  The tech earnings have not been great and that could hit the broader market, which would not great for the sector.  That being said, The sector has been holding its own and the […]

October 27th Biotech Update

A strong start yesterday but it weakened in the afternoon.  We are near the top of the range that seems to have developed.  It would not be surprising to see that upper end act as resistance.  I am not sure there is anything that can happen today that could be definitive.  Even if we break […]

October 25 Biotech Update

Not an awful start to the week.  Yesterday could have been better but it is a solid day today (at least at the start).  We have been in a pretty tight range and I would not be surprised this week if we do not get to the $83.50 level on the XBI.  When we have […]

October 19th Biotech Update

The market has not done too bad this week.  If I take a step back I would almost be tempted to say that the sector is holding support around these levels.  Obviously we can still break down if the market restarts its move lower but given at least a benign broader market, I think the […]

October 17th Biotech Update

Another week and another set of worries but the macro environment is about the same.  We have the Fed and interest rates (and tied into that are the inflation numbers and potential recession caused by the rising rates).  We also have the international political risks and this includes the war in Ukraine and do not […]

October 14th Biotech Update

I had a sneaking suspicion that we would reverse on that gap lower but in no way shape or form are we out of the woods.  The Fed still will increase rates and risks to the financial markets remain high.  It seemed that the doom and gloom had reached extreme levels and so a short […]

October 13th Biotech Update

We firmly remain in do not fight the Fed mode.  They have been quite clear and consistent that they will be focused on bringing down inflation through rate increases and that the job is not done.  I remain convinced that inflation has peaked and is rolling over in real time.  The problem is that in […]

October 10th Biotech Update

Last week was an odd one of sorts.  It started off quite strong but ended a weak.  Overall it ended up being a slightly positive week but the way it ended did not feel great.  The Fed speakers continue to push the narrative of rate hikes and I do not see that ended anytime in […]

October 5th Biotech Update

Apparently all I need to do is put out a cautious note and the market takes off.  I am going to goose the market even more as I am still not convinced we are out of the woods.  I do not see us at the end of the interest rate hikes and the Fed wants […]

October 3rd Biotech Update

I am really torn on the market right now.  There is not a lot going on in biotech to make it really capable of swimming against the current (if the broader market weakens) and so I think macro really matters.  I want to focus on two macro issues that I think are weighing on the […]