The market can always surprise and I was surprised yesterday with the sector strength. The broader market did better than I expected but the sector clearly outperformed. It is only a day but if we see continued strength today then one has to read these days as a strong signal in the near term. I […]
Opinion: No, The Antibiotics Market Is Not Broken
In light of slow drug launches and disappointing sales, there is a growing chorus of voices saying the antibiotics drug market is broken; that the government must step in to save one of our most important resources. With no profits to pursue, it is said, companies will abandon antibiotics, leaving society vulnerable to the spread […]
October 17 Biotech Update
Yesterday was obviously a great day for the sector with everything higher and by a lot. It is not stunning to see some pullback from that move but if there is truly a reinvigorated sector, then you would want to see this red opening reverse into a green day to turn yesterday from a one-off […]
August 20 Biotech Update
I understand that it is still the summer but this is an absolutely no news start to the week. We remain in a choppy market until proven otherwise and this lack of news makes it difficult to discern anything under the surface. Ideally, you would want to see how stocks react to news but we […]
Dave Trading July 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
Dave-Trading – June 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June 11 Biotech Update
I missed out on how the sector traded at the end of the week but it seems like the large caps had the slight edge over the SMID. We are entering a period of what should be some low news days but we do have EHA this week, which could provide some data but it […]
Dave-Trading – June 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
April 30 Biotech Update
I have a lot to catch up on this week but wanted to start this morning with a couple of points. We are going to be getting a lot of additional earnings this week and so far they have been a mixed bag. There are a couple of interesting points that have come out so […]
Dave Trading – May 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
April 20 Biotech Update
It is all about deal making it appears. We are getting closer to the earnings but deals are happening and might be happening or not happening as the case may be. The sector remains in an odd spot where large caps need deals but they also seem reluctant to make deals, although they do take […]
Dave Trading – April 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
February 9 Biotech Update
The broader market looks heavy and it appears that if we end the day red that the weekly losses will be accelerating. Markets do not bottom on a Friday, so if we cannot have a real move higher today, then we will likely be lower again to start next week. We are obviously higher to […]
February 6 Biotech Update
There is not a ton of sector specific news but the broader markets are taking everything down. The XIV is closing, which might have unknown consequences. It is only a relatively small ETF but who knows if it will cause short covering and forced liquidation of other positions. It is possible that the collateral damage […]
January 25 Biotech Update
We are getting some biotech earnings but nothing that is dramatically thesis changing. We had a little consolidation yesterday and I would not be surprised to see it continue but the trend remains higher and suspect that we break into new highs in the first quarter (assuming at least a benign general market environment). 1. […]
January 24 Biotech Update
The animal spirits are back. This is the third day of the move, which usually signals a time for consolidation or pause but we are also just starting some important biotech earnings. Assuming nothing surprising happens, a pause is most likely in the immediate term but the move could also be re-energized if more deals […]
Dave Trading – January 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
December 15 Biotech Update
The question I keep asking myself is whether or not JPM really will be the positive catalyst that everyone is expecting (or really hoping for). We know that companies tend to save good news for JPM and good news should push stocks higher especially if they have been lagging. While I understand that logic, I […]
December 12 Biotech Update
The sector sort of held in there for the ASH hangover but was sort of hit or miss. With ASH winding down, we are seeing the winners selling shares and the losers trying to cut losses. At this point, it is either a wait for JPM or hope for some news out of nowhere. 1. […]
December 5 Biotech Update
I was quite wrong about the sector setting up well and it is not immediately clear to me why the sector did so poorly. I want to go through a couple of ideas today and there is probably no clear answer but it is something that is useful to think through. There is not a […]
