It has been a grinding sort of week. I do not necessarily see hanging around these levels as necessary bad. Putting in some time to generate some support is good but that assumes that we eventually continue higher. I am sort of getting my wish of stable rates. There seems to be a growing view […]
March 21st Biotech Update
Nothing really that news worthy this week so far. That being said the sector might be getting some momentum. We definitely needed to some bouncing after the hanging around what should be support and so far we seem to be seeing that bounce. The chart itself is showing a nice two day move and ideally […]
March 8th Biotech Update
We are hanging out at these higher levels, and it makes me a little more bullish that we might be able to stay in this range. My ongoing concern was that there was not a lot of volume at these levels and so the support might not be that strong. While I would not be […]
December 21st Biotech Update
Not the best day for the sector as trading slows down closer to the holidays. I had been thinking we pullback further but even a 1% decline basically keeps us in this sideways range and then the afternoon happened. It was not clear why the market suddenly decided to correct through price, but I was […]
December 11th Biotech Update
The sector has had a great run. Positive news and increasing confidence that rates have topped were a nice combination. I do think there is likely going to be a short-term pause to the move higher as the sector looks a bit overbought. I would not be stunned to see a pullback to the $73-$75 […]
September 12th Biotech Update
We could be setting up a higher low but I would be very cautious. If we can remain above these levels and not get down to recent lows it would be a positive sign. It also means that we need to get above $81.50 to set a higher high (at least in terms of starting […]
September 7th Biotech Update
I do not think things are as dire as they may feel in the sector. Obviously, if the broader markets weaken (and this is traditionally a weak month), then the sector will not be able to withstand it. If you squint your eyes just right, we have actually moved higher than the previous lower high […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
Incremental. That would be the word I use to describe the action in the sector outside of the big down day earlier in the week. I do not read this as necessarily bad as there has been ample opportunity to accelerate the move lower given we are hanging out at these levels but that follow […]
April 24th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week after a couple of bust Mondays with deals. We are getting into earnings seasons and so it is not surprising that we slow as companies get ready to report. I do not think there is anything that will be very compelling or thesis changing in earning and I suspect […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
A nice little continuation and it is nice to see the XBI above $75 but there is a lot of work to do. To put it in perspective, the 50 day MA is $82.43 and the 200 day MA is $82.22. On the positive, even after the nice little run the RSI is still under […]
March 30th Biotech Update
We have so far avoiding the worst case scenario by having a nice little rally this week. The next big test is going to be whether or not we can get above $78. That looks like some significant resistance and a place where a lower high can be established that would start to paint a […]
March 29th Biotech Update
I sort of expected a stronger start to the week but perhaps there was more caution than relief buying. We might now be building some momentum assuming investors become less concerned about a pending banking collapse. In other words, rather than the early week strong relief rally, we simply needed a couple days of calm […]
March 9th Biotech Update
I feel like we are in déjà vu all over again. This year feels like last year where the sector underperforms when the market is weak and underperforms when it is strong. Good news provides only a momentary boost only to be given back and bad news is punished severely. All that being said we […]
September 19th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but unfortunately not a good start to the sector. We are at a critical area as I think the $80 level needs to hold on the XBI to limit the potential for a clear breakdown. This has been support and resistance and a break below would not be a […]
March 16th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Monday afternoon felt a little like the market was really setting up for another big leg down but since then it seems to have settled a little. This is the market we are going to be stuck with as Monday it looked almost as if China was going to start providing more aid to Russia […]
December 20th Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week but we are really just bouncing around at the recent lows. I suspect we are going to be moving with the market in that if the market rallies the sector moves higher and perhaps outperforms but if the market breaks down we break the lows and likely […]
November 5th Biotech Update
We have an interesting setup for the sector. It looked for a bit like the momentum was going to take it to the upper end of the end where it would stall. It stalled yesterday fairly short of the upper end of the range. The selloff yesterday and this morning are sort of resetting the […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The sector has certainly strung a couple of good days together and it is probably in overbought territory as we approach the upper end of this long term range. The top of the range has been around the $137-$142 level and that seems like a pretty large ran for a top. Ideally we would want […]
October 27th Biotech Update
Would you be surprised to hear that we are basically trudging along in a sentiment mire where everyone hates the sector but its not making new lows? This really feels like a sector that has had everyone who wanted to sell sell-out their positions. We know that the sector is very underweighted but if we […]
October 21st Biotech Update
It continues to be a benign week of trading the sector. I think the context matters in that given the underperformance even slow neutral weeks feels worse than it is. We are waiting for that solid move to the upside given how long and far the sector has underperformed. While it is tedious to have […]
