June 1 Biotech Update

The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]

May 31 Biotech Update

No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]

May 30 Biotech Update

It is ASCO week and the end of a long Memorial Day weekend and there is no news. Usually heading into long weekends there is the expectation/hope that a deal can be finished. Unsurprisingly there are no deals but perhaps a little surprising last week ended with no real excitement or talk of a deal. […]

May 26 Biotech Update

There is no news to speak of so I want to end the week with some broader sector commentary. There are some broader undercurrents that seem to be continuing and it seems to be producing an odd effect on the sector. 1. The first point on the sector is that this is about as frustrated […]

May 25 Biotech Update

The sector continues to struggle, although yesterday was not the worst of days. Perhaps we get a bounce or even a run up into ASCO. Of course, run ups form because of the expectation of good news and at this point I am not convinced the market wants to assume anything positive for the sector […]

May 24 Biotech Update

The sector is having issues. If it is not in oversold conditions it certainly feels that way. Part of the issue is the traditional reasons to sell biotech but it is not as if these companies have been releasing stellar news recently. In any case, this seems to be creating decent opportunities. 1. First a […]

May 23 Biotech Update

So we have some news to discuss. I missed out yesterday as I was at an elementary school graduation ceremony that lasted longer than I expected. There is nothing thesis changing in any of the recent news but certainly some interesting information. The sector is trading awfully and could reasonably be attributed to the spate […]

May 18 Biotech Update

I do not want to spend time on macro given the ASCO abstract dump. As I noted before there is usually not much that comes out of these abstracts as they are early cuts of smaller amounts of data than we will see at ASCO. So for the vast majority of companies the conclusion will […]

May 17 Biotech Update

We have an interesting morning and likely next couple days of trading. The proximate cause of the selling is the continuing and escalating crisis with the Trump administration. While predicting what happens next is a fool’s errand with this administration, it really is starting the look like the endgame is either impeachment, war (started to […]

May 16 Biotech Update

While I do not want to say this with too high of a conviction but I am starting to believe sentiment has changed and is slowly improving. First, we are starting to see some notes talking about the discount healthcare is to the S&P, which is obviously true. I think healthcare is likely one of […]

May 15 Biotech Update

It is a pretty slow start to the week. We have ASCO abstract coming up on the 17th and I believe EHA abstracts on the 18th. Without any real thesis changing news I expect the current trends to continue on relatively low volume and that seems to be underperformance of large caps and outperformance of […]

May 12 Biotech Update

The sector seems to be doing OK. The market appears oddly bifurcated again with the large caps generally underperforming but there are some nice moves in the SMID. This is perhaps the M&A bid coming back into the sector or perhaps is just a reflection that the large caps have little growth and weak pipelines […]

May 11 Biotech Update

There are a couple of quick hits that I want to get today as we have some news but we are also getting closer to ASCO. I suspect ASCO will progressively take up more of the discussion, so I do want to place some ideas out there before ASCO gets dissected to death. 1. In […]

May 10 Biotech Update

The news keeps coming in this week as the sector and market looks for a direction. I do not see anything happening that is fundamentally changing the story for the sector, where best case scenario is it performs in-line with market and good catalysts are rewarded. The problem at this point is we do not […]

May 9 Biotech Update

Yesterday was a bad day for a number of reasons. It is interesting to see the sector hit so hard on the news and will be even more interesting to see if we get a real bounce or a dead cat bounce. As troubling as the selling was yesterday, the sector appears range bound more […]

May 8 Biotech Update

With the earning seasons continuing it is becoming clear that the sector is going to bifurcate. Growth is becoming increasingly difficult to find as the ability to grow through price is all but gone. As such, I expect continued low growth quarters with a selective few biotechs with real growth. This is going to put […]

May 4 Biotech Update

It looks like a vote is set for TrumpCare in the House and while it will be close I lean towards it passing. Congress is heading towards a recess so I suspect many republicans are going to vote to give Trump a win. It is a low cost vote as it will not pass the […]

May 3 Biotech Update

I missed yesterday at home with a sick child. I need to catch up a little on what I missed but I wanted to follow up on the GILD quarter as it is an interesting case for a number of reasons. 1. The revenues were awful. Just about every part of the GILD business is […]

May 1 Biotech Update

This week has another batch of earnings that will likely drive sentiment and price action. So far it seems like the sector is more or less trading in line with the market but perhaps slightly better. There is still some follow up from last week to talk about and one big earning tomorrow. 1. When […]

April 28 Biotech Update

A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]