Yesterday was the opposite of my market thesis but perhaps that was related to the new talk about healthcare reform not being dead. I would slightly increase the odds that a new bill is introduced and perhaps passed in the House but it would have to be significantly different to pass the Senate and that […]
March 28 Biotech Update
So an interesting day yesterday in that the sector outperformed the broader market (as I expected) but the broader market was not as weak. Obviously my market headwind/bio tailwind call is longer term so what happens day to day is not that meaningful (and it is not really an exceptionally high conviction call but simply […]
March 27 Biotech Update
We are back in a macro driven world (at least for the near term). The failure of TrumpCare will have two impacts on the sector. First, the odds of drug pricing reform in the near, short, or medium terms are now significantly lower. Trump wants (needs) a win and he is not going back to […]
March 24 Biotech Update
Do we have AHCA fatigue yet? It could end today if the House votes no but a yes vote likely means another couple months of debate as it moves to the Senate where it is a non-starter. What is interesting for the broader market is the claim by Trump that he would move on to […]
March 22 Biotech Update
We finally had a 1%+ down day in the market, so we can finally stop seeing on the tweets about how long it has been since a 1% sell off. This broader market weakness led to sector weakness- not surprisingly. Of course, this is right after Trump made another comment on drug pricing, so this […]
March 21 Biotech Update
While we are still seeing the residual impact of the PCSK9 news and events, I want to step back from that news and focus on some other companies/areas. Clearly it will take time for the news to settle into stocks but there has been some additional news. First, Trump talked about drug pricing (again) and […]
March 20 ESPR Update
A quick note on ESPR as I somehow missed the FDA news this morning that a couple of you kindly pointed out. This makes the move much more reasonable than I first thought. So what does this mean? First, the odds of the drugs approval are likely higher given the LDL lowering endpoint is easier […]
March 20 Biotech Update
Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Well, this is not going to be a good day for the sector and that wall at 300 in the IBB is likely safe for now. The key culprit is going to be the AMGN outcomes data, which is a massive disappointment (for anyone outside of AMGN who apparently think it is great). While one […]
March 15 Biotech Update
The PARP wars have ramped up with the AZN data. This was important data for the PARP wars but sort of important for the sector more broadly as this is a new class of drugs that seemingly has an impressive impact on the lives of patients. I think the PCSK9 data later this week are […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The sector is on the edge of either breaking down or breaking out. While it is hard to have very strong conviction, I would lean towards a breakout especially given the potential news this week. Obviously the data can change where we move but I do think it will send a sign as to the […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Certainly getting some more news and events that could be driving the sector but nothing really thesis changing, we need to wait for the end of the week with the PCSK9 data. As we wait for that data, there are some interesting notes and company specific information that we can talk about. 1. KPTI was […]
March 10 Biotech Update
The sector has been interesting. Given the past 18 months, it feels easy to be bearish on every pullback consolidation but I am incrementally more positive. It is starting to feel more like a pause at an important level of resistance as opposed to the start of a large retracement. Obviously we likely need some […]
March 8 Biotech Update
I was not too busy to write yesterday but there was really nothing that I could find that was interesting enough to write about. I looked for something and there was a big lack of company specific news and that is the case today as well. We are a little too early to talk about […]
March 6 Biotech Update
There is a little bit of news to start the week but nothing that likely seems thesis changing or will have a dramatic impact on sentiment/trends. We are in the tail end of earnings with a drum beat of small caps that might have some impact on the individuals companies but little on the sector. […]
March 3 Biotech Update
I think the sector has been rational the past couple of days in that good news is generally moving stocks higher and bad news lower. If there was a broader trend I would say weak but it almost seems out of sync with the broader market. When the broader market rallied the sector lagged and […]
March 1 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news the past couple of days but certainly some interesting events to talk about. I will focus on two but more generally the sector is doing well. There seems to be some more interest in the sector and the move in CELG might be that early warning signal of generalist interest […]
February 27 Biotech Update
I have snuck into work during this Mardi Gras break but not much to write on so this will be a quick update and will likely be back later in the week. 1. ONCS held up better than I thought it would and with the fast track news today and KOL talk tomorrow, I will […]
February 24 Biotech Update
Weakness (sort of) continuing in the sector but perhaps that is simply drifting or consolidation after its recent performance. In either case, it still seems like people are unwilling to fully commit to the sector and my early warning signal of generalist entrance (and likely sustained outperformance) will be outperformance of CELG. That is a […]
February 22 Biotech Update
A little bit of news since yesterday and I will focus on them but more broadly the sector seemed to struggle yesterday. It had been outperforming so a day of relative weakness is not unexpected but was certainly a sell biotech and buy everything else sort of day. Let us see if that pattern continues […]
