Another start to the week and another week without the M&A that many think is needed to move the sector higher. I worry a little about that argument as one would like to see the sector move higher off of fundamentals and not adding more and more takeover premiums into stocks. That being said I […]
October 9 Biotech Update
I would say after yesterday that the sector looks a little better but I think more to the point it seems that volatility is the best word that describes the trading action. The biased bull in me sees this volatility as slowly healing the charts and putting in a bottom. The bear in me sees […]
October 7 Biotech Update
So I think the sector told us what direction it wanted to move. We are getting to dangerous territory for another large leg downward. It does not help in the short term that oil seems to have bottom, which is likely making the energy sector a more attractive near term place to put money given […]
October 5 Biotech Update
Today is going to be a nice tell for the sector. We essentially have a positive market backdrop but more importantly competing headlines. There is the continued pricing discussion highlighted by high profile VRX articles in the New York Times and then the positive data from ONCE. If the sector can shrug off the pricing […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Just when it seemed like the market could have been getting its footing we have the weak jobs report and we are back to a macro driven sell off. I think down continues to be the near term trend until proven otherwise. I am looking at both the VIX and put/call ratios and think they […]
September 29 Biotech Update
I want to get out a quick note this morning as I am not sure I will have time for my usual Wednesday note and there has been some interesting news. The biggest issue remains the macro and the selloff in the sector. This is beyond weak hands and this is the liquidation of large […]
September 28 Biotech Update
The market has been ugly and rough and at times like this you simply want to throw up your hands and walk away but this is where values develop, so it is worth staying engaged even if we are not at the bottom. I think it is a legitimate question as to whether we are […]
September 25 Biotech Update
The sector continues to get hit with the broader market. It feels like the sector is still facing the headwinds from the pricing discussions but as it fades into the background, the headwind will lift. Of course, it has to fade into the background and that remains an open question. My base case remains that […]
September 23 Biotech Update
The sector and market have been hit hard in recent days and, at least for the sector, it comes down to drug pricing discussions. Drug pricing occasionally comes up as an issue and you have to expect that as long as it is part of the narrative it is going to be a headwind for […]
September 21 Biotech Update
Another slow news start to the week. The market background seems better but with a lack of real news/catalysts, the sector is likely we trade in line with market. It will be interesting to see how the sector trades with a lack of news as it may give us at least some sense as to […]
September 18 Biotech Update
The market supposedly got what it wanted (no hike) but looks like it wants to sell that news. As I said before the meeting, I have no confidence in terms of the next move of the market and if I were to explain the less than enthusiastic reaction, then I would lean towards a disappoint […]
September 16 Biotech Update
The market has done well recently but it is all meaningless for the most part until we get the Fed decision. To be honest, I do not know whether to root for a hike or no-hike. I can come up with what I think are reasonable cases for why the market would rally on either […]
September 14 Biotech Update
Talk about a slow start to the week. Nothing really new, which probably means all eyes will remain on the Fed. I have no idea whether the Fed is going to raise rates or not or whether the market moves higher or lower if the rates are raised or not. In some ways, the best […]
September 11 Biotech Update
Macro seems to be slowly fading into the background but note that I said slowly as it will likely take more time and it should remain meaningful in the short term. Of course, fading into the background does not mean all is clear for the next move higher as I read the market as simply […]
September 9 Biotech Update
Well, there was certainly some additional news last night and I want to focus on that but it still seems like we are in a macro driven market with the current bias higher. It does feel, however, that macro is starting to move into the background but it remains to be seen if it will […]
September 8 Biotech Update
I expected a more active Tuesday but perhaps all of the deals are taking a little longer to finalize. In fact, we have a pretty quiet morning which is going to once again push macro into the forefront (which at least appears to be good this morning but we usually see these opening moves fade). […]
September 2 Biotech Update
The market looks bad again. Even though we are having a mini rally this morning, the sellers appear to be in control so far this week. I still think China is a red herring and the market is pricing in a Fed rate hike and the potential the risk that it starts a deflationary spiral. […]
August 31 Biotech Update
Looks like a slightly lower start to the week. Macro still obviously matters but the size of the moves seems to be decreasing. I find it interesting that the weakness comes after Fisher had a relatively hawkish Fed talk at Jackson Hole, where he noted that the Fed could raise rates before they saw inflation. […]
August 28 Biotech Update
I was busy for a day and the market does great but I come back and we have a gap lower. Sorry. In all seriousness, however, the snap back rally needs to pause but given the sell-off, I think we need to see the market shake off the gap lower and end higher today. We […]
August 26 Biotech Update
The market had a rough day yesterday where the rally from the “lows” earlier in the week faded at the end of the day. That is never a good sign and at this point we need to ignore the gaps higher until they strengthen into the end of the day as opposed to fade. I […]
