March 17th Biotech Update

What is going on with the sector?  It seemed like everything was going well and then the bottom dropped out.  Given the recent history with what seemed like a month of pure selling I suspect that it feels like we are set for another big move down.   Obviously that is possible and we need to […]

March 15 Biotech Update

Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in.  I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher.  There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]

March 12 Biotech (and Energy) Update

I think the only thing we can say with confidence is that we are in the middle of process as there is not clear uptrend, downtrend or bottom.  This makes for frustrating moves for both bears and bulls as what looks good for your view on day is not another day (in fact it seems […]

March 8th Biotech Update

I am not sure if the sector is trading on fundamentals anymore.  I do not mean that it is over- or under- valued but that the trading has been so extreme that I am not sure news matters.  Of course, as we attempt to rather this week starts with no M&A and a negative trial […]

March 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update

So I think it was a week ago or so that I said that $140 was very likely and then these bounces made it perhaps a little less clear, yesterday made it clear.  The question now is whether or not that level will hold.  Everything is setting up for a bounce.  We had a large […]

March 1 Biotech Update

A good start to the week on relatively little news.  I thought the sector had a clear shot down to the $140 or so level on the XBI but it is possible that the intraday move on Friday marked the bottom.  We need more than simply a good start to the week but need it […]

February 26th Biotech Update

We did not get the follow through yesterday and as I feared it simply reset the chart to allow more downside.  Clearly $140 on the XBI is in the cards and that would be a 20% or so decline in about three weeks.  That is a fast move into bear market territory.  I find it […]

February 25th Biotech Update

We got what we needed to start a bounce in the sector but it has to be followed through today otherwise it is simply a bounce that reset oversold conditions, which allows for more downside.  We are at support levels that should be good enough to generate a little bounce (at least), so I lean […]

February 24th Biotech Update

So it has been a difficult start to the week for sure but we did get a little bit of reversal yesterday.  It was more true for the market in general than for the sector but we did not close on the lows which I think is pretty important.  Obviously we want to see green […]

February 22nd Biotech Update

We had a good end to last week and we need to see if this will follow through.  I sort of thought that the best case scenario was continued selling Friday, Monday and into Tuesday so we could get a reversal Tuesday morning but we got a decent little bounce Friday.  That reset the chart […]

February 19th Biotech Update

The sector really seems unable to bounce which seems to open up a move to $150.  That being said I really think we are oversold in the near term and so it would really be a signal of disinterest in the sector if we continue to $150.  In some ways, it sets up a pretty […]

February 18th Biotech Update

Not a ton of news so a short note today.  The sector tried to bounce yesterday and did a decent job but today there is no clear follow through.  We are certainly at a level where there should be some support but it does not seem like very many people are exciting about biotech at […]

February 17th Biotech Update

There is not a ton to talk about as we are a little slow on the news front but we are setting up for continued downside in the market.  We have the trifecta of limited M&A, continued capital raising at these levels, and bad news as being the most dominate news at this point.  I […]

February 12th Biotech Update

The sector certainly seems in pullpack mode.  There is nothing to think that the broader trend higher is broken but obviously that is something we want to keep an eye on.  There will be a broader and more significant move lower but global equities saw the largest inflow of funds ever last week.  There is […]

February 11th Biotech Update

I guess it is escalator up and elevator down sort of market.  It was a little strange to see the drop midday on what I could not see as any news.  Obviously most see the market as extended and overvalued and do not want to be the last one holding when the correction occurs.  I […]

February 10th Biotech Update

Right now the market seems to be the epitome of a market at highs tends to make marginal new highs.  The sector has been doing really well and in some ways was leading the moves higher.  There was a little pause yesterday which is normal but at this point I still think the trend is […]

February 5th Biotech Update

The market seems like the prototypical market at highs tends to make marginal new highs.  If that is the case, then the assumption would be a continued slow grind higher until the elevator down correction.  In some ways, it also means that we are unlikely to get those price dislocations that make for the really […]

February 4th Biotech Update

The market seems to have calmed down and now we are entering the grind higher phase (so it seems).  I would not argue with you if you were to tell me that the market is overvalued and we are in the late stages of the bull market.  I would note, however, that these late stages […]

February 3rd Biotech Update

It seems like the reddit traders and the GME short squeeze neither broke the market or revolutionized it.  They were unable to keep the price high and avoid the crash (I suspect the Robinhood restriction only hastened the crash) and the were unable to replicate it in their next target of SLV.  So odds are […]