It seems clear to me that we have broken out of the range and have a nice little uptrend going on. We still have to have a pullback that resets the short term stochastics and allows us to put in a higher low (and then followed by a higher high). When that happens it will […]
September 1st Biotech Update
I am back, although I am lucky to have power as most of Baton Rouge is still without power (which means without AC when the heat index is over 100 degrees). I have not been able to follow the sector too closely but it looks like we are having a nice little breakout with some […]
August 27th Biotech Update
Still not a lot of news in the sector. The XBI basically pushed up to the upper end of the range and is now pausing/retracing. The question is what happens after the pause? Is it a pause that refreshes and allows for a breakout or is it the start of the retracement to the lower […]
August 25th Biotech Update
We lost a little bit of the momentum yesterday but we have had a short strong move and so a little pause is not crazy. Of course a little pause to refresh is different than a move back towards the lower end of the range. Yes, my assumption will remain that we are in that […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
What is happening? Do we actually have M&A that could be more broadly meaningful for the sector? I think we might actually have had one. Obviously we need to see how the sector ultimately reacts to the deal but it is setup as being really good for the sector and not just for one day […]
August 19th Biotech Update
Yesterday did not end well but hopefully the recent lows hold and we get a bounce. I still think as long as the lows hold we could work under the assumption that we are range bound, although I would certainly prefer if we were hanging out near the upper bound of the range as opposed […]
August 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of more that is going on in the sector. It was certainly nice to see the green but we really need that momentum to continue. I still think the sector is best described as either range bound or potentially starting a new downtrend. I lean towards the range bound but it also […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news and the sector is in a precarious spot. It had a chance to breakout and start to form a new bull trend but it failed. That failure does not mean a new bear trend but it did mean a test of the recent lows, which is where we are today. […]
August 13th Biotech Update
Today could be a day of decision in terms of the sector (and some stocks). The XBI seems to have a little pennant forming and it would be nice to see a breakout over the $130 level where that should lead to a continuation next week. Of course, there is still some room for indecision […]
August 12th Biotech Update
I painted such a nice story yesterday with a setup that was going to move us higher into a long awaited uptrend and then the sector did what the sector has been doing all year. I still think we are setup to get a bull market going but nothing is going to be easy for […]
August 11th Biotech Update
Low key, I think the sector might be turning the corner. I am not convinced and there is work to be done but the XBI looks like it could be setting up higher lows and, if we get above $130, higher highs. I think at the very least the clear downtrend has become a lot […]
August 9th Biotech Update
A sort of flat opening for the week, which is not ideal but it certainly could be worse. We have earnings this week but there is not anything this week that should be thesis changing for the sector. Obviously earnings can be important for individual stocks but I do not foresee anything coming out of […]
August 6th Biotech Update
The sector has a real chance to change the narrative and sentiment. Yesterday we broke above the recent lower high (just barely but we were above it for a little). That breaks the clear downtrend but obviously does not mean that it is over. If we can reverse higher today and build off of that […]
August 4th Biotech Update
I have to say yesterday was pretty disappointing. We finally get some M&A and while it is not massive it is in a hot therapeutic modality and the sector trades lower. One would have thought that would have been enough to at least get a little rally if not something more meaningful. Perhaps it is […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
July 30th Biotech Update
Unfortunately we were unable to string together some momentum for the sector. It could have be worse but ideally we would have built on some of our earlier strength this week as opposed to bounce around with some weakness mixed with the strength. It is not surprising given the downtrend we have established but there […]
July 29th Biotech Update
The sector got the bounce yesterday and we really need it to continue for at least a couple of days. It is not clear if this was simply a technical bounce or related to the generally positive earnings but it is certainly nice to see and will be better if it is not a single […]
July 28th Biotech Update
I think we should at the point where we can start to expect at least a dead cat bounce (and perhaps if we are lucky an actual reversal but I would not hold my breadth for that). I would have thought a turnaround Tuesday would have been in order but not quite. We are entering […]
July 26th Biotech Update
It should be a busy week with some earnings and the Fed meeting. Of course there is nothing to start the week so we are back to the negative bias in the sector, which is not surprising. I still think the path of least resistance at this point is lower but with the potential of […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
