We remain mired in the middle with nothing really to signal the ultimate resolution of this situation. I would simply remain focused on the fundamentals of companies and simply be aware that the broader sector will at some point clarify the next move. I would be ready for a move higher or lower as I […]
April 5th Biotech Update
While it is possible that this week is decision week for the sector, I am not convinced that it has to be. There is room above and below for it to tread water and not signal its next big move. I see the $150 and $125 levels as the key ones to watch and the […]
April 1st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The market certainly feels like it is in a better place and perhaps that is true for the broader market but I still do not see us out of the woods for the sector. Despite a good bounce the past couple of days we are still in what could be a downtrend and until we […]
March 31st Biotech Update
We are in an interesting spot. Yesterday started bad but we reversed higher and that continued today. It feels better with this bounce having a nice follow through. What is interesting is that we made a lower low despite the reversal., so in reality we seem to have established a downtrend even though we had […]
March 29th Biotech Update
It seems like there is a lot of talk about a major Asian hedge fund blowing up causing forced liquidation and market dislocations. While it does not seem to be the case that this involves a lot of biotech companies, it does appear tech related and anything this massive will have ripples throughout the market. […]
March 26th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Yesterday turned out better than I expected. It was a nice reversal but we have seen this story before and the sector simply has not been able to build off of these moves. So I had been looking to see if the sector set a higher low and higher high to signal a new bullish […]
March 25th Biotech Update
It is never easy, I guess. It is always darkest before the dawn. I am sure there are other phrases that could apply to the market at this point but the fact is that the sector is clearly struggling. We had the chance to set a higher high and perhaps get some momentum but that […]
March 24th Biotech Update
You probably got the sense that I was leaning towards the sector eventually signaling a new trend higher at some point. Yesterday did not provide any comfort of confirmation of that lean. I would not argue that yesterday indicates that we are going to break into new lows but it definitely raises that possibility. It […]
March 22nd Biotech Update
A more rigorous FDA. Rising interest rates. Rising COVID cases in the EU. Lack of M&A. A lot of clinical trial failures. These are the list (probably not comprehensive) of the risks that have been used to explain the selloff in the sector. None of these have gone away and yet we still have the […]
March 19th Biotech (and Energy) Update
Yesterday clearly did not instill a ton of confidence. That being said we did not break any lows so the path of setting a higher low and establishing a new move higher is still possible. The difference is that we are now closer to taking out the lows, which is not a comfortable position (especially […]
March 18th Biotech Update
Is the recent price action in the sector bullish or bearish? It is really difficult to call it at this point. It is completely consistent with a bull market for a sector to pullback and consolidate a move higher. That being said the sector has conditioned us over the past month or so that pullbacks […]
March 17th Biotech Update
What is going on with the sector? It seemed like everything was going well and then the bottom dropped out. Given the recent history with what seemed like a month of pure selling I suspect that it feels like we are set for another big move down. Obviously that is possible and we need to […]
March 15 Biotech Update
Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in. I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher. There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]
March 12 Biotech (and Energy) Update
I think the only thing we can say with confidence is that we are in the middle of process as there is not clear uptrend, downtrend or bottom. This makes for frustrating moves for both bears and bulls as what looks good for your view on day is not another day (in fact it seems […]
March 8th Biotech Update
I am not sure if the sector is trading on fundamentals anymore. I do not mean that it is over- or under- valued but that the trading has been so extreme that I am not sure news matters. Of course, as we attempt to rather this week starts with no M&A and a negative trial […]
March 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So I think it was a week ago or so that I said that $140 was very likely and then these bounces made it perhaps a little less clear, yesterday made it clear. The question now is whether or not that level will hold. Everything is setting up for a bounce. We had a large […]
March 3rd Biotech (and Energy) Update
The market has been rough. Not in that we have seen a ton of downside but more in terms of the whiplash we have seen. One day looks like a breakdown and the next looks like a breakout. I do not see any clear trend right now and until the market signals by moving out […]
March 1 Biotech Update
A good start to the week on relatively little news. I thought the sector had a clear shot down to the $140 or so level on the XBI but it is possible that the intraday move on Friday marked the bottom. We need more than simply a good start to the week but need it […]
February 26th Biotech Update
We did not get the follow through yesterday and as I feared it simply reset the chart to allow more downside. Clearly $140 on the XBI is in the cards and that would be a 20% or so decline in about three weeks. That is a fast move into bear market territory. I find it […]
February 25th Biotech Update
We got what we needed to start a bounce in the sector but it has to be followed through today otherwise it is simply a bounce that reset oversold conditions, which allows for more downside. We are at support levels that should be good enough to generate a little bounce (at least), so I lean […]
