November 14th Biotech Update

Yesterday did not start the way we wanted but it certainly ended much better.  A red to green move down at the lower levels is a good sign that support is building.  The next part of the process (if we can start to build a bull case) would be a continuation of that momentum, which […]

November 13th Biotech Update

We had a nice little reversal on Friday and that could set us up well into this week.  We certainly need to build off of that move and have a solid week of green.  We had some nice solid news this weekend on the data front that could stimulate some more fundamental interest in the […]

November 10th Biotech Update

Kind of a bad way to end the week but is it?  The sector got hit with a double whammy of bad news plus Fed talk that was pretty hawkish on rates.  So the two biggest issues for the sector were brought to the forefront and it pummeled the sector once again.  I still think […]

November 9th Biotech Update

Is this a week of consolidation or the new high to be followed by a lower low?  We have broken the clear trend lower that had been operating for the past 6 months but only marginally so.  One could look at the chart and still see a basic downtrend as we made our way to […]

November 7th Biotech Update

It was not the best of Mondays but given the strength of last week, we were bound for a pullback.  That being said, we are at a precarious point in that we hit resistance and pulled back.  So in some ways this looks quite natural to pullback at this area but it also does leave […]

November 6th Biotech Update

Well, that was quite the week and end to the week.  Why the sudden strong end to the week on top of a good week?  The economy was weaker than expected.  We are not close to a recession, but the data came in weaker than expected, which means rates could have peaked and the rising […]

November 2nd Biotech Update

The bounce continues but it still is not good enough to break the downtrend.  This certainly feels good to be rallying but my base case remains that the trend continues until broken.  The trend is down and while I intuitively think we are close to a bottom, I still think we need to be exceptionally […]

November 1st Biotech Update

The best sign for the overall market was the reversal on a day in which the SMID space could have been hammered by the SRPT news.  The sector started lower but then recovered to end solidly green.  That is a strong signal as to the overall health of the sector.  That is not to say […]

October 30th Biotech Update

It was not a great end to last week and it looks like we are going to be getting to that $62 level sooner rather than later.  I still sort of worry that we have not had a panic move but perhaps we are setting ourselves up that move this week.  In any case, $62 […]

October 27th Biotech Update

It has been a mixed week.  I could certainly have seen it play out better but I have certainly seen worse.  As they say bottoming is a process and as long as we have not broken to lower lows, we could be in that process.  Of course, resetting oversold conditions for another leg lower is […]

October 25th Biotech Update

A bounce feels good but as had been the case it really means nothing unless we can break above the lower high (which in this case is around $72).  Every one of these bounces has the chance to do so but as you know my mantra has been that we are likely to see $62 […]

October 23rd Biotech Update

The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector.  It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher.  I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]

October 20th Biotech Update

When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal.  That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green.  Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]

October 19th Biotech Update

And just like that the potential relief rally is over.  We are breaking new lows and the little rally looks like another lower high.  I had at least one day of potential hope for the sector but my long-standing view that we are heading to the $62 area seems unfortunately accurate.  Of course, there is […]

October 18th Biotech Update

I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad.  There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce.  I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]

October 11th Biotech Update

It should surprise no one but we remain linked to interest rates and while the Fed is not raising short term rates, long term rates continue to rise.  As long as it appears that the Fed cycle and long term rate moves higher are not ending, then the sector is going to struggle.  Given the […]

October 10th Biotech Update

Not an awful start to the week all things considered.  I still worry that this is simply reset the chart for the next move lower but I still definitely prefer being wrong on that ultimate move and that we find a way put in a bottom at this level.  In order to have any confidence […]

October 9th Biotech Update

We had a decent end to the week in that we rallied a little but I still think as long as we stay under $75 it is nothing more than a rally that resets the oversold conditions.  With a new war in the Middle East and one that has uncertainty as to the potential to […]

October 5th Biotech Update

Are we getting to a near term bottom in the sector?  Perhaps, the selling is getting to pretty extreme levels and we did not end yesterday on the lows.  We did not really do a massive reversal either, but I do not think we have a near-term chance of getting to the multi-year lows of […]