A short note today as there is not much going on. We have earnings starting next week so the pace of news should pick up but at this point, I suspect the sector more or less trades in line with the broader markets until we get more company and sector specific news. 1. JNJ hurt […]
January 22 Biotech Update
Certainly not the best start to the week but it remains early. As long as the XBI remains above $80 I would not worry too much about this being the long awaited correction but this is certainly price action that one needs to watch. I think today offers the strongest test of the recent move […]
Celgene Update
Real quick post on CELG. I sold my position for $86.28. I wanted to lock in profits and while there is still a nice gap between current price and deal price, I do not want to risk the profits. BMY call options have been hot to end the week and there is a risk that […]
January 17 Biotech Update
The grind in place or higher option remains possible with the market. It will be interesting to see how the approach of earning season pressures traders. Does the lack of a correction before earning season pressure traders to chase or does it lead traders to take some risk of the table to avoid losing their […]
January 15 Biotech Update
We are clearly not out of the woods for a correction but we should also remember that corrections can occur through price or time. In other words, most think of a correction as a retracement of a move higher and while that is most common, it can also occur through time where prices grind in […]
January 11 Biotech Update
Everyone continues to expect a pullback and yesterday looked like it would be the day that starts the correction but we ended up green again. This has been on the of the strongest JPM weeks I remember (at least from a price action perspective). Yesterday is another brick in the wall of the idea that […]
January 9 Biotech Update
The sector move seems to be losing some steam. This is not unexpected nor bad as these overbought conditions need to be reset. The real key going forward is not how much further this move can stretch higher but whether or not we can form a lower high. That will be absolutely key as a […]
January 8 Biotech Update
The sector is ripping higher the past couple days, which makes sense given the news flow. I thought the XBI could hit $80 and it did. This is an area of some resistance and the question is whether or not this momentum could actually carry it to the $85 area. Over the near term I […]
January 7 Biotech Update
This is one hell of a start for biotechs this year. M&A and good data are back. Of course, there is a bias in JPM week to present good news early, so I would be surprised to see this rate of positive news to continue all week but this is certainly a great start and […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]
January 3 Biotech Update
Holy crap, BMY is buying CELG. This is one hell of a way to start the XLRN is aNew Year and JPM week. It is unfortunate for the sector that the broader markets are so weak otherwise this would likely have had a bigger positive impact. Hopefully the AAPL related weakness is fleeting and we […]
December 31 Biotech Update
The selling has been relentless but we are now seeing a nice rally/dead cat bounce. While one has to be very careful with any rally as countertrend rallies in bear markets can be face ripping, there are some nice signs for the biotech sector. While there is some reason for optimism one still has to […]
December 18 Biotech Update
It is brutal out there for bears and bulls alike. While the trend seems to be lower the market continues to have little rips higher. I still lean towards another leg lower and the XBI is sitting right above the recent lows and a break below those levels starts the waterfall down to another low. […]
December 17 Biotech Update
It really is looking like we are entering a bear market and those sharp rallies that we have seen are simply the sharp counter trend rallies one sees in bear markets. I am not completely convinced that a bear market is coming but I think we are close. As long as the economy remains out […]
December 13 Biotech Update
Not a ton of news as the year closes down. It seems like the market wants to whiplash investors as we bounce around with no clear trends. It does not matter how strong or weak a day is as it seems to have no impact on trading the next day. We should be approaching a […]
December 11 Biotech Update
The market did a lot better to start the week than I would have thought and that strength continues today. At this point, I think everyone does not really trust the market (I fall in that camp) but does that mean then that the sellers on this pop get burned? Everyone expects the move higher […]
December 7 Biotech Update
The market can always surprise and I was surprised yesterday with the sector strength. The broader market did better than I expected but the sector clearly outperformed. It is only a day but if we see continued strength today then one has to read these days as a strong signal in the near term. I […]
December 6 Biotech Update
China is back in the news and for good or ill, the sector fundamentals do not matter. Right now it is all about China and the broader market will pull the sector higher or lower. At this point with no trade deal and with the arrest of the Huawei CFO (the daughter of the CEO […]
December 4 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day but not as broad based as one would have hoped. Today will be telling in that the confusion over the China “trade deal” has only amplified leading to early pressure. Ideally, the sector would shrug off early weakness and build on yesterday’s strength to end the day green once again. […]
December 3 Biotech Update
It is certainly a great start to the week with generally good news from ASH, merger Monday, and easing trade tensions. If we do not get a gap and run with this news, then we are in trouble. I suspect this will be a multi-day move (or at least it should be on this news). […]
