The sector seems to be doing OK. The market appears oddly bifurcated again with the large caps generally underperforming but there are some nice moves in the SMID. This is perhaps the M&A bid coming back into the sector or perhaps is just a reflection that the large caps have little growth and weak pipelines […]
May 11 Biotech Update
There are a couple of quick hits that I want to get today as we have some news but we are also getting closer to ASCO. I suspect ASCO will progressively take up more of the discussion, so I do want to place some ideas out there before ASCO gets dissected to death. 1. In […]
May 10 Biotech Update
The news keeps coming in this week as the sector and market looks for a direction. I do not see anything happening that is fundamentally changing the story for the sector, where best case scenario is it performs in-line with market and good catalysts are rewarded. The problem at this point is we do not […]
May 9 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a bad day for a number of reasons. It is interesting to see the sector hit so hard on the news and will be even more interesting to see if we get a real bounce or a dead cat bounce. As troubling as the selling was yesterday, the sector appears range bound more […]
May 8 Biotech Update
With the earning seasons continuing it is becoming clear that the sector is going to bifurcate. Growth is becoming increasingly difficult to find as the ability to grow through price is all but gone. As such, I expect continued low growth quarters with a selective few biotechs with real growth. This is going to put […]
May 4 Biotech Update
It looks like a vote is set for TrumpCare in the House and while it will be close I lean towards it passing. Congress is heading towards a recess so I suspect many republicans are going to vote to give Trump a win. It is a low cost vote as it will not pass the […]
May 3 Biotech Update
I missed yesterday at home with a sick child. I need to catch up a little on what I missed but I wanted to follow up on the GILD quarter as it is an interesting case for a number of reasons. 1. The revenues were awful. Just about every part of the GILD business is […]
May 1 Biotech Update
This week has another batch of earnings that will likely drive sentiment and price action. So far it seems like the sector is more or less trading in line with the market but perhaps slightly better. There is still some follow up from last week to talk about and one big earning tomorrow. 1. When […]
April 28 Biotech Update
A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]
April 26 Biotech Update
Today is the eye in the center of the storm with a number of earnings tomorrow. It might also be the eye in the center of the North Korean crisis as Trump is meeting with all of the Senate and House to discuss the situation. If we can get through the next couple days without […]
April 25 Biotech Update
The market continues to have a tail wind as France and North Korean risks are being removed (although not sure we are quite out of the woods on North Korea but could be relatively soon). The sector seems to be participating a little more today, which is a positive sign but as I noted yesterday […]
April 24 Biotech Update
The market is surging and is dragging the sector higher with it. It seems to me that the sector is not doing particularly well given the new risk on environment but it is also not doing exceptionally poor. We had a large M&A announcement but it was med tech so we are still waiting for […]
April 19 Biotech Update
The sector is not doing well. The broader market is getting stronger and biotech cannot seem to catch a bid or hold any sort of gain. Volume is anemic. All that is telling me that generalists have no interest in buying and see value elsewhere. On the positive side, it does not look like there […]
April 18 Biotech Update
Nothing dramatically new happening in the sector. There are a couple of interesting tidbits that are worth talking about but certainly no thesis changing or confirming news. 1. JNJ started off the earnings season with a mixed quarter. It is tough to read from JNJ to the sector writ large given the diverse base and […]
April 17 Biotech Update
Another long weekend and another lack of M&A. I do not know when this will start to weigh on the sector or the reason behind the lack of M&A but it will matter at some point. Perhaps it is valuation, perhaps it is waiting on tax reform but at some point companies need pipeline as […]
April 13 Biotech Update
More of the same as we move into Easter weekend. Tensions are building in Korea and there is almost a pathological disinterest in biotech with anemic volumes. If this were a bull market the underlying bid would lead to a drift higher but for the sector it is leading to a drift lower. It is […]
April 12 Biotech Update
Nothing has changed really in terms of politics. There is still talk coming out of Washington about health care reform not being dead and I do think they are still trying. The problem facing Trump is that without the savings from health care reform, the tax cuts in tax reform explode the deficit. In other […]
April 11 Biotech Update
We are inching closer to a major black swan as I noted earlier. This is keeping me very cautious about initiating new positions in size. Keep in mind that April 15th is the Day of the Sun (celebration of birthday of Kim il-sung), which is a period of tension with the North Korean government usually […]
April 10 Biotech Update
The weekend is over and we have another Monday with a noticeable lack of M&A. This is not an issue for the market (yet) but outside of the ALIOY deal this has been a bad year for M&A. These years happen but remember the role that a pick up in M&A played in sector calls […]
April 5 Biotech Update
I promised to talk about more stocks that are on my radar but I am going to change it up a little. I do not like to stray too far from biotech or political issues that touch on biotech but I want to highlight one black swan to watch. In addition, there was a big […]
