I want to get out a quick note this morning as I am not sure I will have time for my usual Wednesday note and there has been some interesting news. The biggest issue remains the macro and the selloff in the sector. This is beyond weak hands and this is the liquidation of large […]
September 28 Biotech Update
The market has been ugly and rough and at times like this you simply want to throw up your hands and walk away but this is where values develop, so it is worth staying engaged even if we are not at the bottom. I think it is a legitimate question as to whether we are […]
September 25 Biotech Update
The sector continues to get hit with the broader market. It feels like the sector is still facing the headwinds from the pricing discussions but as it fades into the background, the headwind will lift. Of course, it has to fade into the background and that remains an open question. My base case remains that […]
September 23 Biotech Update
The sector and market have been hit hard in recent days and, at least for the sector, it comes down to drug pricing discussions. Drug pricing occasionally comes up as an issue and you have to expect that as long as it is part of the narrative it is going to be a headwind for […]
September 21 Biotech Update
Another slow news start to the week. The market background seems better but with a lack of real news/catalysts, the sector is likely we trade in line with market. It will be interesting to see how the sector trades with a lack of news as it may give us at least some sense as to […]
September 18 Biotech Update
The market supposedly got what it wanted (no hike) but looks like it wants to sell that news. As I said before the meeting, I have no confidence in terms of the next move of the market and if I were to explain the less than enthusiastic reaction, then I would lean towards a disappoint […]
September 16 Biotech Update
The market has done well recently but it is all meaningless for the most part until we get the Fed decision. To be honest, I do not know whether to root for a hike or no-hike. I can come up with what I think are reasonable cases for why the market would rally on either […]
September 14 Biotech Update
Talk about a slow start to the week. Nothing really new, which probably means all eyes will remain on the Fed. I have no idea whether the Fed is going to raise rates or not or whether the market moves higher or lower if the rates are raised or not. In some ways, the best […]
September 11 Biotech Update
Macro seems to be slowly fading into the background but note that I said slowly as it will likely take more time and it should remain meaningful in the short term. Of course, fading into the background does not mean all is clear for the next move higher as I read the market as simply […]
September 9 Biotech Update
Well, there was certainly some additional news last night and I want to focus on that but it still seems like we are in a macro driven market with the current bias higher. It does feel, however, that macro is starting to move into the background but it remains to be seen if it will […]
September 8 Biotech Update
I expected a more active Tuesday but perhaps all of the deals are taking a little longer to finalize. In fact, we have a pretty quiet morning which is going to once again push macro into the forefront (which at least appears to be good this morning but we usually see these opening moves fade). […]
September 2 Biotech Update
The market looks bad again. Even though we are having a mini rally this morning, the sellers appear to be in control so far this week. I still think China is a red herring and the market is pricing in a Fed rate hike and the potential the risk that it starts a deflationary spiral. […]
August 31 Biotech Update
Looks like a slightly lower start to the week. Macro still obviously matters but the size of the moves seems to be decreasing. I find it interesting that the weakness comes after Fisher had a relatively hawkish Fed talk at Jackson Hole, where he noted that the Fed could raise rates before they saw inflation. […]
August 28 Biotech Update
I was busy for a day and the market does great but I come back and we have a gap lower. Sorry. In all seriousness, however, the snap back rally needs to pause but given the sell-off, I think we need to see the market shake off the gap lower and end higher today. We […]
August 26 Biotech Update
The market had a rough day yesterday where the rally from the “lows” earlier in the week faded at the end of the day. That is never a good sign and at this point we need to ignore the gaps higher until they strengthen into the end of the day as opposed to fade. I […]
August 25 Biotech Update
Despite ending the day down significantly, it actually felt like a good day. I wanted to post a real quick and short note as from now on Tuesday and Thursday are going to be quite busy. So I will try to post on those days if possible but do not be surprised if nothing comes […]
August 24 Biotech Update
Wow. What a start to the week. In terms of news there was not much but we had an incredible flash crash in the large caps at the open. From a technical perspective, I do not know if this signals an end or what but there were some great long term bargains that I missed […]
August 21 Biotech Update
So it is obviously getting rough and we got our first peeks of panic yesterday. Most everyone seems to think that the worst is yet to come and I would not be surprised to see even more downside but obviously the contrarian in me wants to move to the other side of the boat when […]
August 20 Biotech Update
Another gap lower but the market remains in a rut refusing to breakdown or breakout. As I have said before, 2015 has been a year of churn and that is going to end up being really robust support for a breakout or really strong resistance for a breakdown. At this point, there is not a […]
August 19 Biotech Update
Not much has changed sector wide since I last wrote but we did have a trade play out, although not quite the way I expected. I want to talk about it today both because there have been some questions around it but also because it goes to the larger theme I think is at work […]
