It seems like every day I write this week is a weak start to the morning. It is not surprising that the sector is pulling back after the run yesterday and the renewed bubble chatter. Every run in the sector the past two years has brought out the bubble chatter and every time it was […]
March 4 Biotech Update
Another weak start to the sector, which seems to be a developing theme but the whole market is down so I would not read too much into it. It still looks a lot like a consolidation of the recent move higher both for biotechs and the broader markets. It might not be a bad time […]
March 3 Biotech Update
The market is weaker today and it is bringing down the sector, although it appears that biotechs are underperforming the broader market. It does not appear that this underperformance is concentrated in any market cap group or therapeutic area and simply looks like broadly hitting the sell button. Not exactly sure why the selling was […]
March 2 Biotech Update
A relatively good start to the week with only one slight worry. While the sector is generally green with the market, large cap biotechs are noticeably weaker. While it might not be a major issue if they were less green than some of the small caps, it is odd to see them red with the […]
February 27 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be a little weaker than the market although the moves are relatively small, so there is probably not a lot one can read into it. That being said the momentum higher has clear paused and perhaps reversed a little but given the volume and small moves the market appears to have […]
February 25 Biotech Update
I am back but have not really followed the market the past couple of days. My sense is that it has been relatively weak and could be setting up for a near term pullback. That is likely healthy in that the sector has had a good run and is getting a little stretched. Outside of […]
February 20 Biotech Update
As much as I have disliked this recent move higher in terms of not trusting it, you have to respect how well the sector is climbing the wall of worry. My hunch is that we are going to start to see another round of bubble trouble pronouncements. Clearly the sector is not a cheap as […]
February 18 Biotech Update
I am back after a small break and I hope that nobody missed me. The market certainly did not miss me as not much has really happened on the news front or from a trading perspective. So at least my general sector thoughts are similar. There are a couple of current trades I want to […]
February 13 Biotech Update
Market seems pretty benign but the sector appears a little heavy. As I have been saying the only thing we can have confidence in about the market is the lack of confidence. Yesterday it looked like the sector really wanted to move higher but this morning appears to be sending the opposite signal (perhaps we […]
February 11 Biotech Update
Another slow day in the market in terms of news, so I want to round out a couple of ideas today. Nothing has really changed in relation to my views in that the next move will be higher (remember that is a very low conviction view) with continued chop regardless of the ultimate direction of […]
February 10
Who order gains and losses with a large side of chop? This is a market clearly looking for direction and positive signs one day turn into negative signs the next. A stock that you expect to be an early tell of market sentiment ends up just being another victim of the chop. Markets like this […]
February 9 Biotech Update
A good start to the week with the markets a little week but the sector outperforming. This is not totally surprising given the underperformance last week in that there should be some sort of bounce back. It is certainly positive to see but I wonder about of the staying power and whether this is simply […]
February 6 Biotech Update
Well, I can honestly say that on Wednesday I did not think the sector would be looking this good on Friday. The economy seems to be improving, the macro (outside of the Greek noise) seems benign, and the sector seems to be shrugging off the hep-C discounts. I am a little surprised but you also […]
February 4 Biotech Update
So it looks like the sector wants to go lower. While there can be any number of explanations the proximate cause is the GILD report, so I want to go over that in detail and trace out what it means and does not mean. 1. Why is GILD down? I think this is the simplest […]
February 3 Biotech Update
It has been a bad start to the week for sure. The macro is getting better and biotechs are significantly worse. We are treading into very dangerous waters. Catalysts are going to slow dramatically. The market has to digest a lot of secondaries. And headlines out of Washington are putting pricing once again into the […]
January 30 Biotech Update
I want to write this quick to get it out as I spent the morning taking the children to the dentist, so I have a late start. The market is bad (again) but this is really nothing new. This churning is really giving gristle to the bulls and bears. Bears are going to argue it […]
January 28 Biotech Update
Another day with no clear leadership in the space but with a general bid to the sector (until the entire market sold off). I am a little surprised at how long this has lasted but to be fair the sector continues to move higher without clear leadership. What do I mean by the lack of […]
January 27 Biotech Update
A bad start for the market in terms of earnings, economic data, and price action. It appears that FX and the capital spending decline coming from oil prices is creating a significant headwind. Despite the gap down, biotechs were basically unchanged if not higher. That is quite the odd scenario as risk off should hit […]
January 26 Biotech Update
It has been a mixed start to the week both in terms of the macro background and also stocks within the sector. It seems like both are looking for new leadership (to the upside or downside) and I still lean towards the next move being higher but it remains a low conviction view. On the […]
January 23 Biotech Update
It has been sort of a mixed bag with the sector despite some decent macro tailwinds with the European QE program. I am not saying the sector has been bad but I would have expected it to take more of a leadership position in the move higher whereas it seemed more to have been dragged […]
