It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]
January 10th Biotech Update
We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]
January 9th Biotech Update
I think macro is officially in the background for now. It seems clear the US will not respond and most encouraging is that the US noted that they will not necessarily equate the Iranian proxies with Iran. In other words, everyone is de-escalating. This is not over as economic sanctions remain and that is part […]
Another Look at TPTX
With the entrance of RET inhibitor TPX-0046 into P1/2 last November, fast moving Turning Point Therapeutics now has a full slate of 3 clinical candidates. Soon, another ALK inhibitor is expected to join the fray. Pipeline: The pivotal repotrectinib studies in ROS1 and TRK are ongoing with interim results from some registrational cohorts expected during […]
January 8th Biotech Update
Iran responded and it went about as well as we could have hoped. The administration has a chance to de-escalate today and given the limited damage done with the attack last night, it should be a day of slowly decreasing tensions. Of course, what should happen and what actually happens can be different. I would […]
January 7 Biotech Update
We remain in the calm before the storm (perhaps both macro and in terms of JPM). I still think the market is underestimating possible Iranian responses and seems to be slightly exhaling in that nothing has happened yet. I too have felt that relaxation but I still cannot believe that Iran would allow the assassination […]
January 6 Biotech Update
I am glad to be back and will be in my usual daily update routine for the foreseeable future. I did not miss a ton of news but we certainly will have some soon enough with JPM next week. Before I left the sector was in a clear uptrend that was unbroken and I noted […]
All Eyes On SAGE Ahead of JPM
SAGE has been a very volatile stock even since its early days. Hopes have been dashed only to be renewed by another promising aspirant. Only weeks ago, the subject of this affection was SAGE-217. It traded as high as $198 in July before falling to $56 on December 5 when it was announced the drug […]
Is APLS a Buy Ahead of Data?
Apellis Pharmaceuticals is developing treatments through targeting the human complement cascade. Its most advanced product is C3 inhibitor APL-2. Pivotal trials are ongoing in PNH and geographic atrophy in age-related macular degeneration, or GA, where C3 is known to be a primary disease driver. Results from a highly anticipated head-to-head study of APL-2 vs eculizumab […]
December 18th Biotech Update
Another slow news day or at least slow trading day. I think the market continues to drift and perhaps we get a large small volume move but markets near yearly highs tend to make marginal new highs. Of course, the marginal new highs are occasionally followed by large moves lower. As such, it might make […]
December 17th Biotech Update
It seems like we are getting into the slow part of the holiday season. News is slowing down as is the trading volume. I suspect we get less and less news as it gets held for JPM (if possible). It would not necessarily be bad for the sector to churn at these levels to build […]
December 16 Biotech Update
We have a decent news morning but I want to focus on three and can do so with a Western theme: the good, the bad, and the ugly. 1. The good: Clearly this is AMRN. We got an early Christmas present with an expanded label. They did not get the primary prevention but also seemed […]
December 13 Biotech Update
There is some news today so I will do a quick Friday note. 1. ATNX had their data and it showed a statistically significant OS improvement. We are getting a little sell the news for a couple of reasons. First, the stock had a good run into these data. Second, the data are not perfect. […]
December 11 Biotech Update
Today will be interesting in whether or not we can break into new highs for the week. It looked like Monday was going to trigger a breakout and run but that sort of fizzled. Yesterday was a good day and so today will be interesting to see if we can push those highs seen on […]
The CNST Bull Case in a Single Slide
Constellation Pharmaceuticals presented some compelling data at ASH. In early results from 15 JAKi naive Myelofibrosis patients treated with a combination of BET inhibitor CPI-0610 and ruxolitinib, 12 (80%) achieved a Spleen Volume Response of at least 35% (SVR35). The numbers indicate 8/11 (73%) of the newly added patients had a response. This is a […]
December 10 Biotech Update
It seems like the sector might breakout and run yesterday morning but it came back to reality in the afternoon. While it would have been nice to see a run, the pullback does not change the trend. Perhaps we will now see a little weakness and pullback to higher lows (as had been the case) […]
December 9th Biotech Update
We have our answer as to the strength of the trend. Positive data are being rewarded (so far) and the perfect storm continues for the sector with not only good data but more M&A. So not only do we need to think about the trend but also whether this is a major breakout as the […]
December 4th Biotech Update
The sector struggled a little and the momentum seems to have paused but we remain squarely within the uptrend. Of course, yesterday saw a ton of secondaries (the most I have seen in a day in a long time) and these tend to occur near the top of a range and not the bottom. It […]
December 3rd Biotech Update
The broader market backdrop is not nearly as positive with some China fears creeping into the market but the sector remains strong. I still think the stock reactions to ASH data this weekend will go a long way in signaling expectations and whether they have become extended. So for me I will be watching not […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector remains strong and we have ASH coming so we could see a run in some names this week. Given the recent strength and the potential run-up (uptrends are prime run-up candidates), I would not be surprised to see a sell the news reaction on ASH data. Expectations are growing with the valuations and […]
