Back in August I published my deep dive report “Bellus – David vs. Goliath, Can BLU Deliver A Better Chronic Cough Drug Than Merck?” (Link) with a bull thesis stating that Bellus Health (TSX: BLU.TO) (OTC: BLUSF) have a good chance to pass the first true hurdle and achieve positive results from their clinical trial […]
Dave-Trading November 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
November 20 Biotech Update
I guess we did not get the turn around that could have been a positive sign. There is still a chance for a turnaround Tuesday as we gap lower at the open but the market feels pretty heavy at this point. There just seems to be no interest in buying and/or holding anything. On the […]
November 19 Biotech Update
This should be a relatively slow week but with ASH late breaking abstracts coming out later, it might not be completely devoid of news. There is a little more hope for the sector than the middle of last week. We have had a couple of strong days, although one could argue this has just brought […]
Bria-IMT Combination Study with KEYTRUDA®: What to Know and Why
In a previous interview, BriaCell (TSX:BCT.V) (OTCQB:BCTXF) (or the Company)’s President and CEO, Dr. Bill Williams cited as a near-term catalyst data from the Company’s ongoing Phase IIa combination clinical trial of Bria-IMT™ with Merck’s (NYSE: MRK) KEYTRUDA® [(pembrolizumab) ], as listed in ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT03328026, in advanced breast cancer. Initiated in October, the study […]
November 15 Biotech Update
Today is an important day for the sector. We are at very long term support (the 200 week MA) that has rarely been breached (occasionally but never in a sustained manner). At levels that should provide some support we get some partnership news that is positive for SMID (it seems like partnerships are the new […]
November 13 Biotech Update
We are getting what I suspect is a dead cat bounce after the trouncing yesterday. The recent lows need to hold but there really seems to be nothing in terms of sentiment to indicate that those lows will hold. We seem back in the scenario where early green opens fade during the day and turn […]
November 12 Biotech Update
A rough start to the week. The market just feels heavy and looks like it wants to break through the recent lows. It looked for a little like it wanted break from the downtrend and form a new channel higher but the week is not starting off like that is in the cards. Another leg […]
Opinion: No, The Antibiotics Market Is Not Broken
In light of slow drug launches and disappointing sales, there is a growing chorus of voices saying the antibiotics drug market is broken; that the government must step in to save one of our most important resources. With no profits to pursue, it is said, companies will abandon antibiotics, leaving society vulnerable to the spread […]
November 8 Biotech Update
Not a lot going on but there are a couple of quick points I want to make today. 1. AKAO is having the completely predictable slow antibiotic launch. You will never see these launch like anti-virals or oncology drugs. Simply being approved does not mean they will be used as hospitals have to review it […]
November 7 Biotech Update
The midterm elections are over and now we have a couple hour break before the 2020 presidential campaigning begins. The split congress is likely positive for the markets as they tend to favor gridlock over one party rule but I think any bounce or sell-off is not going to be lasting or meaningful as the […]
November 6 Biotech Update
While there are certainly other things happening in the market, I want to focus today on ONCS as I think there are important take aways not only about the data but also more broadly. 1. Looking at the data and presentation, it looks in-line with my expectations. I noted going in that they were likely […]
November 5 Biotech Update
We are entering the heart of the SMID earning season and while it could have an impact on the individual stock, it usually does not have major impacts more broadly. It is once again a quite start to the week and even macro it seems pretty staid. This is nice in that it will provide […]
Bellus – David vs. Goliath Round 2 – Can BLU Expand the Pipeline Following Merck Lead?
Back in August I published my first deep dive report “Bellus – David vs. Goliath Can BLU Deliver A Better Chronic Cough Drug Than Merck?” (Link) about Bellus Health (BLU.TO) (BLUSF) a biopharmaceutical development company based in Montreal, Canada. Its lead drug candidate is BLU-5937 which is a highly selective P2X3 antagonist that has the […]
November 1 Biotech Update
Yesterday I wondered if the sector was bottoming and evidence is building that we are bottoming. We still need to string some green days together and see stocks react positively to good news (and hold those gains). I certainly would not bet the farm that the bottom is in but it is more encouraging and […]
APTO – We Came for A Trade and Back for The Long-Term Potential
The First time I met Aptose Biosciences (APTO) was at the Bloom-Burton conference in Toronto back in May 2018 following the request of several Chimera Research Group (CRG) subscribers. They asked me to check out the company’s presentation and try to get more info about the status of the clinical hold and when we might […]
October 31 Biotech Update
Is the sector starting to bottom? It certainly does not feel like it as every gain is followed by more selling. No move higher seems to have any staying power. Positive starts to the day are sold by the end of the day. All that being said bottom and tops looks so clear in hindsight […]
October 29 Biotech Update
Surprisingly not any M&A (I say sarcastically). It is interesting, however, that there are some partnership deals and this makes me wonder if that is the new M&A. It is a relatively cheap way to get access to a particular asset with relatively lower risk especially if most of the biobucks are commercial. It is […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Yesterday was brutal and there is really little to say about it as we are clearly in the middle of a massive correction if not outright bear market. I suspect that we are closer to the end than the beginning but that does not mean we could not see another 10% lower from these levels […]
October23 Biotech Update
It is unfortunate that the earnings weeks comes as the market seems to want to collapse. Industrial earnings are finally seeing the impact of the trade policies and now apparently it is a biotech issue. It is hard to see how the sector would avoid being pulled into a larger market sell-off regardless of the […]
