The chop continues and I suspect this week will be no different. There is not any news to start the week that would excite or disappoint, which means the previous trend (of no trend) is the path of least resistance. It is interesting that no one even talks about M&A anymore as that was supposed […]
August 10th Biotech Update
While yesterday ended up being quite positive for the sector (in general), I am still not going to read too much into it and would not be surprised to see those gains disappear in the next couple days. My view remains a low volume chop to the sector until we get out of the summer […]
August 9th Biotech Update
The chop continues. I just do not see anything definitive in either direction and am coming around to the belief that we are not going to see anything definitive soon. I suspect we bounce between 113 and 120 on the IBB for a bit and then come the fall we see a break with volume […]
XENE – Quick note, Q2 Earnings and Epilepsy Long Term Value Creation
Follow up to my previous report “XENE – Epilepsy and Advocacy Under the New FDA” (Link) XENE released their Q2 earning report and hosted a conference call and webcast to discuss the 2Q 2018 financial results and provide corporate update. Xenon pharmaceutical (XENE) story keep evolving, with plenty of cash runway through at least mid-2020, as of […]
August 8th Biotech Update
We are not quite getting the clarity to the upside but there is nothing to indicate that the sector is about to break to the downside. It seems like the path of least resistance is going to be chop perhaps until more investors get back from their summer vacations. The fall tends to see more […]
XENE – Epilepsy and Advocacy Under the New FDA
Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focusing on discovering and developing innovative therapeutics for neurological disorders. XENE has an extensive knowledge of human genetics and diseases caused by mutations in ion channels, known as channelopathies, focusing their efforts on novel product pipeline of CNS-central nervous system therapies, to address areas of high […]
August 6 Biotech Update
A slow start to the week in which there are a lot of earnings calls but likely nothing to change the course of the sector. That has already been set by the large caps and we still need them to stay within striking distance of news highs if not break through them this week. It […]
August 3 Biotech Update
I will quickly finish up the week as there are a couple of interesting tidbits and the broader trading is more or less the same. There are some areas of strength but its relatively isolated but there is also not a ton of broad weakness either. Barring an awful day today the sector should end […]
August 2 Biotech Update
The sector continues to hold up in terms of price action relative to the broader market. If the market can at least stabilize, the sector has a good chance to eventually regain and perhaps break through recent highs. Obviously, all bets are off if the broader market collapses. My inclination is that the tech and […]
August 1 Biotech Update
The sector recovered a little yesterday from last week’s sell-off but ideally we would need to see the sector break into new highs. It seems highly likely that the sector tests the recent highs and the price action at that point is likely to be a strong signal of underlying strength. Given the fundamentals and […]
July 31 Biotech Update
I am still trying to catch up on all the earnings and happenings last week but I wanted to talk about two broad observations. In some ways, I benefited from not being able to watch the price action last week and only really looked at the news. In general, the price action does not reflect […]
Dave Trading July 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
July 20 Biotech Update
Not a ton of news to end the week as the sector continues to drift around. This is not completely surprising given the earnings coming next week. I will be out of town on vacation all of next week, so there will be no updates. I will catch up the week after next but on […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector has hit a rough patch as we get into earnings season. The market itself has not been stellar, so I would not read this as some early take on the big set of earnings next week. In fact, large biotech has tended to do relatively well on these sell offs so despite the […]
BIIB Option Trade – A Response to Dave
Dave made a good case to play the BIIB data next week. He is leaning bullish, which could make price explode past $400. his downside expectation is between $300 and $320. Whenever I see elevated IV going into a catalyst, especially a biotech data catalyst, I like to see if there is a way to […]
July 17 Biotech Update
The lack of news continues as well as a generally weak market. While it certainly was not strong yesterday (and to start today), it feels more like indifference than a strong push by the bears. This does not mean it could not morph into something more meaningful but at this point it seems more like […]
July 16 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news this morning so I will keep it quick. We will have some earnings but large pharma tends to not be a leading indicator for biotech earnings but we will certainly watch to see if there is anything meaningful in the earnings or how the respective stocks react to the earnings. […]
July 13 Biotech Update
While we are talking about small numbers and small difference, I would argue that it looks like large caps are finally starting to show some relative strength to SMID. I would argue that this is a better case to build a new breakout than one led by SMID as those moves are likely more driven […]
July 12 Biotech Update
I think we are entering a lull in the sector as we are approaching earnings seasons. In general, this tends to be a better season than the first but that also means expectations are a little higher. A good earning season would see no major misses and at least a couple beat and raises from […]
FDA GT Draft Guidance is Bullish for Sarepta's DMD Pivotal Trial
Yesterday July 11, 2018 the FDA FDA issues 6 new draft guidance documents for gene therapy, clinical development and manufacturing guidance. Human Gene Therapy for Rare Diseases – FDA Draft Guidance for Industry https://www.fda.gov/downloads/BiologicsBloodVaccines/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/CellularandGeneTherapy/UCM610802.pdf The FDA guidance noting the pre-existing antibody to GT, this is the strongest SRPT’s & Dr. Mendell point, choosing the AAVrh74 which […]
