We have an interesting morning and likely next couple days of trading. The proximate cause of the selling is the continuing and escalating crisis with the Trump administration. While predicting what happens next is a fool’s errand with this administration, it really is starting the look like the endgame is either impeachment, war (started to […]
Dave-Trading June 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
May 16 Biotech Update
While I do not want to say this with too high of a conviction but I am starting to believe sentiment has changed and is slowly improving. First, we are starting to see some notes talking about the discount healthcare is to the S&P, which is obviously true. I think healthcare is likely one of […]
May 15 Biotech Update
It is a pretty slow start to the week. We have ASCO abstract coming up on the 17th and I believe EHA abstracts on the 18th. Without any real thesis changing news I expect the current trends to continue on relatively low volume and that seems to be underperformance of large caps and outperformance of […]
May 12 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing OK. The market appears oddly bifurcated again with the large caps generally underperforming but there are some nice moves in the SMID. This is perhaps the M&A bid coming back into the sector or perhaps is just a reflection that the large caps have little growth and weak pipelines […]
May 11 Biotech Update
There are a couple of quick hits that I want to get today as we have some news but we are also getting closer to ASCO. I suspect ASCO will progressively take up more of the discussion, so I do want to place some ideas out there before ASCO gets dissected to death. 1. In […]
May 10 Biotech Update
The news keeps coming in this week as the sector and market looks for a direction. I do not see anything happening that is fundamentally changing the story for the sector, where best case scenario is it performs in-line with market and good catalysts are rewarded. The problem at this point is we do not […]
May 9 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a bad day for a number of reasons. It is interesting to see the sector hit so hard on the news and will be even more interesting to see if we get a real bounce or a dead cat bounce. As troubling as the selling was yesterday, the sector appears range bound more […]
May 8 Biotech Update
With the earning seasons continuing it is becoming clear that the sector is going to bifurcate. Growth is becoming increasingly difficult to find as the ability to grow through price is all but gone. As such, I expect continued low growth quarters with a selective few biotechs with real growth. This is going to put […]
May 4 Biotech Update
It looks like a vote is set for TrumpCare in the House and while it will be close I lean towards it passing. Congress is heading towards a recess so I suspect many republicans are going to vote to give Trump a win. It is a low cost vote as it will not pass the […]
May 3 Biotech Update
I missed yesterday at home with a sick child. I need to catch up a little on what I missed but I wanted to follow up on the GILD quarter as it is an interesting case for a number of reasons. 1. The revenues were awful. Just about every part of the GILD business is […]
GILD Earnings Trade Idea
Let me preface this by saying that trading earnings is a scary proposition. Earnings tend to move stocks a lot, particularly when catalysts for the stock tend to be earnings based. It is also a fool’s game to try to use option pricing as a gauge for how much the stock will move for earnings. […]
May 1 Biotech Update
This week has another batch of earnings that will likely drive sentiment and price action. So far it seems like the sector is more or less trading in line with the market but perhaps slightly better. There is still some follow up from last week to talk about and one big earning tomorrow. 1. When […]
April 28 Biotech Update
A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]
April 26 Biotech Update
Today is the eye in the center of the storm with a number of earnings tomorrow. It might also be the eye in the center of the North Korean crisis as Trump is meeting with all of the Senate and House to discuss the situation. If we can get through the next couple days without […]
April 25 Biotech Update
The market continues to have a tail wind as France and North Korean risks are being removed (although not sure we are quite out of the woods on North Korea but could be relatively soon). The sector seems to be participating a little more today, which is a positive sign but as I noted yesterday […]
April 24 Biotech Update
The market is surging and is dragging the sector higher with it. It seems to me that the sector is not doing particularly well given the new risk on environment but it is also not doing exceptionally poor. We had a large M&A announcement but it was med tech so we are still waiting for […]
April 19 Biotech Update
The sector is not doing well. The broader market is getting stronger and biotech cannot seem to catch a bid or hold any sort of gain. Volume is anemic. All that is telling me that generalists have no interest in buying and see value elsewhere. On the positive side, it does not look like there […]
April 18 Biotech Update
Nothing dramatically new happening in the sector. There are a couple of interesting tidbits that are worth talking about but certainly no thesis changing or confirming news. 1. JNJ started off the earnings season with a mixed quarter. It is tough to read from JNJ to the sector writ large given the diverse base and […]
Dave-Trading – May 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
