Biotech is clearly back. We appear to be breaking out of the range with perhaps broadening participation and increasing volume. I am not a technician but this is looking good. There is not a lot of news but I wanted to touch on a couple of quick points and make this a relatively short note. […]
June 20 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be breaking out of its range with another early show of strength. While it is still early and we have been here before, the background seems better for a breakout. We have yet to have a real negative catalyst (has been the pattern) and political overhang is leaving. As a side […]
June 19 Biotech Update
The sector finally does not have bad news this morning to undercut any momentum. We are still waiting on the M&A cycle to start but at this point I do not think anyone is investing in the sector on the expectation of M&A (that is good to see). We are still in the same old […]
Dave Trading – July 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June 15 Biotech Update
The market is certainly continuing its recent weakness (especially NASDAQ) but today biotech is down with it. Is this the start of another move to the lower end of its range or is this the pause for the breakout of the range? If history is any guide this is the start of a move to […]
June 14 Biotech Update
The trading seems to be more of the same in that the sector is modestly outperforming the market but more or less simply trading flat. There are certainly some moves under the surface but the sector writ large has more or less flatlined for about 18 months now and that has become even more obvious […]
June 13 Biotech Update
It is days like this that show why the sector cannot have nice things (as the saying goes). We seemed to be getting some traction and were approaching what has been strong resistance and we get hit with bad news. I said it before and I will say it again, I think people are attributing […]
June 12 Biotech Update
Another slow start to the week with little news and no M&A. The sector did end last week outperforming a falling market and that is continuing today (weak market with relative strength in biotech). That is a good sign but there is very little chance that the sector could hold up in a more severe […]
June 9 Biotech Update
I want to end this week with an ASCO follow up and talking about something new. I must say that the sector is doing modestly better than I had feared and seems to have gotten its legs. This obviously does not mean that it is going to run but at least it does not seem […]
June 7 Biotech Update
I want to focus on a couple of specific companies in more detail over the next couple of days. There seems to have been a couple of irrational reactions to ASCO news and it is important to understand why they are irrational. Of course, it could be that I am wrong but I will try […]
June 6 Biotech Update
I am back from ASCO with a lot to cover and I will focus on broader themes today and spend the rest of the week with more company specific commentary. The reaction to ASCO so far has been bad but as I noted before that is not completely unexpected. The trading action before ASCO does […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]
May 31 Biotech Update
No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]
May 30 Biotech Update
It is ASCO week and the end of a long Memorial Day weekend and there is no news. Usually heading into long weekends there is the expectation/hope that a deal can be finished. Unsurprisingly there are no deals but perhaps a little surprising last week ended with no real excitement or talk of a deal. […]
May 26 Biotech Update
There is no news to speak of so I want to end the week with some broader sector commentary. There are some broader undercurrents that seem to be continuing and it seems to be producing an odd effect on the sector. 1. The first point on the sector is that this is about as frustrated […]
May 25 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle, although yesterday was not the worst of days. Perhaps we get a bounce or even a run up into ASCO. Of course, run ups form because of the expectation of good news and at this point I am not convinced the market wants to assume anything positive for the sector […]
May 24 Biotech Update
The sector is having issues. If it is not in oversold conditions it certainly feels that way. Part of the issue is the traditional reasons to sell biotech but it is not as if these companies have been releasing stellar news recently. In any case, this seems to be creating decent opportunities. 1. First a […]
May 23 Biotech Update
So we have some news to discuss. I missed out yesterday as I was at an elementary school graduation ceremony that lasted longer than I expected. There is nothing thesis changing in any of the recent news but certainly some interesting information. The sector is trading awfully and could reasonably be attributed to the spate […]
June Dave- Quick Trade Update – ESPR
I tweeted earlier that ESPR was crushed because of what seemed like an innocuous employee benefit (I made the tweet Friday, it published today). That was all I had on my newsfeed. It turns out HC Wainwright released a bear statement that was addressed by ESPR in a later blog post. The HC Wainwright note […]
May 18 Biotech Update
I do not want to spend time on macro given the ASCO abstract dump. As I noted before there is usually not much that comes out of these abstracts as they are early cuts of smaller amounts of data than we will see at ASCO. So for the vast majority of companies the conclusion will […]
