It is a strong start to the week (broader market) with the sector trudging along higher. There are some very strong moves under the surface but those are both higher and lower, so the net impact is a more modest move in the indices. A small move higher after a medical conference is a win […]
AXON Trade Update – Follow-Up
Congrats! We are currently up $100 per calendar spread on our trade! This will lower the price of a bullish play considerably! A run-up has begun however, so the return to risk is no longer in our favor as the short call premium dwindles. Therefore, I have chosen to execute the second part of the […]
September 8 Biotech Update
The sector has been doing well but it seems to have been a bifurcated market with big winners and losers. The broader market seems to be listless which is not helping. My low conviction view is that the sector looks ready to lead another leg higher but we need broader market participation for it to […]
September 6 Biotech Update
We have some more news this morning in the sector that I will focus on today. In terms of generalities, it is nice to see positive news being rewarded and while this seems like a natural state of affairs, there was a time where good news was not rewarded. The ability of positive fundamentals to […]
September 5 Biotech Update
A relatively quiet start to the week (at least for the sector). North Korea remains a concern but despite the nuclear test the response of the US and South Korea remains blowing up dirt with their own missiles. At this point the risk that the US has a military response is minimal. Remember that it […]
September 1 Biotech Update
They say that the market never bottoms on a Friday and I wonder if the same is true of topping? The sector has clearly had a strong near term move and is due for a pause but would strength today be the near term top or is there more to go? Over the longer term […]
August 31 Biotech Update
The good news and move for the sector continues. In isolation the move higher seems a stretch in terms of the fundamental news that we have seen the past week. The news has been good but we have had weeks with better news and did not have this reaction. Clearly sentiment has changed in the […]
August 30 Biotech Update
The sector and perhaps even broader market look good. One of my fears about the risk of a government shut down and/or debt ceiling might be resolving to a certain extent. There seems to be a growing consensus to do a three month funding, debt ceiling hike, and hurricane Harvey relief in a single bill. […]
August 28 Biotech Update
The long sector nightmare is over and we have a merger Monday and GILD did a deal. There was also some interesting BIIB data that has been loss in the shuffle but let us focus on the deal and what it tells us going forward. 1. Once again let me note that I am a […]
August 25 Biotech Update
The news flow has picked up marginally but nothing that is thesis changing for the sector. Volume is generally low and I suspect that the sector will be hostage to the broader market in that its moves will follow it. There is really nothing until the AXON data that could generate a strong independent move […]
August 23 Biotech Update
The sector had a good day yesterday with an early retracement this morning. I am a little surprised that there is not more weakness in the broader market. Last night Trump threatened a shutdown over the border wall funding, which is one of the risks I have been talking about. Does the market think that […]
August 22 Biotech Update
Another day with not a lot of news but we at least have some news to talk about in the doldrums of summer. 1. While we were expect the BPMC data at ESMO, they PRed the data early and to be honest it is not that exciting. In patients with FGFR4 activited the ORR was […]
August 21 Biotech Update
Happy eclipse day. There is little news both in the sector and in the market. This is not necessarily a bad thing as it might give us a sense as to whether there is an underlying bid or offer in the market. Barring any news hitting during the day, I suspect we drift on low […]
Wizard of Ops – AXON trading idea
Everyone in the world knows that there’s a huge Alzheimer’s catalyst coming up for AXON. As such, the options are priced pretty crazy. October options are priced as if $50 is the current price, not $20. Crazy bullish skew. To the Wizard of Ops, this means there is excellent opportunity to not only make some […]
August 18 Biotech Update
The whole market is looking heavy and the IWM broke below key support. The sector is not going to be able to hold up if this continues but luckily there is still the rising 200 day just below $300 on the IBB that could be additional support. So would the IBB breaking below $300 surprise […]
August 17 Biotech Update
There is nothing to dissuade me that risk on is creeping back into the market as North Korea is fading into the background (for how long who knows but that is the current trend). As such, this will generally be good for the sector but we are approaching some seasonally weak periods for the market […]
Dave-Trading – September 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
August 16 Biotech Update
The recovery continues as risk-on seems to be heading back into the market. Part of me sees this as what I expected in terms of a sell off to test the break out, the previous resistance holding as support, and now we continue higher. The other part of me sees a wall of worry that […]
August 14 Biotech Update
We survived the weekend without a nuclear holocaust so I guess that is good for a relief rally. That seems a little misplaced in that the weather has been bad all weekend over the Korean peninsula, so the odds of a test firing was low. The real risk of escalation is a little over a […]
August 11 Biotech Update
The macro risks are helping to bring down the sector and we are just about at those breakout levels that I have been talking about. Of course, I also noted that when we test it no one is going to want to buy and that includes me. While nuclear war would obviously send us lower […]
