*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
June Dave- Quick Trade Update – ESPR
I tweeted earlier that ESPR was crushed because of what seemed like an innocuous employee benefit (I made the tweet Friday, it published today). That was all I had on my newsfeed. It turns out HC Wainwright released a bear statement that was addressed by ESPR in a later blog post. The HC Wainwright note […]
Dave-Trading June 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
GILD Earnings Trade Idea
Let me preface this by saying that trading earnings is a scary proposition. Earnings tend to move stocks a lot, particularly when catalysts for the stock tend to be earnings based. It is also a fool’s game to try to use option pricing as a gauge for how much the stock will move for earnings. […]
Dave-Trading – May 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
Dave Trading – March 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 6
Proposed solution and conclusion Finally, I’d like to draw some conclusions and offer a different solution. First of all, it is clear that the corporate tax structure is way too complicated. Its provisions seem to be more focused on assuring tax revenue instead of focusing on economic efficiency and keeping America competitive in the international […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 5
Proposed Policy Actions to curtail inversions All policy actions taken so far have been attempts at adjusting the tax code to greatly discourage inversion, but falls short of eliminating the incentive to invert. The Congressional Budget Office points to three policy options that are being considered for passage: Move significantly toward a purely worldwide system […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 4
The incentives to invert Now that we have determined that inversions are not in America’s best interest and that multinational corporations are now actively seeking to invert, we must critically consider how to stop inversions. However, it is prudent to first understand the full scope of the incentives to invert. Results have shown that inversion […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 3
A brief history of corporate tax inversion In 1982, McDermott Inc., an industrial company making nuclear reactor parts for the US Navy as well as deepsea oil and gas production facilities, decided to expatriate to Panama where one of their subsidiaries were located and renamed themselves McDermott International (Hines, 1991). This was done by having […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 2
Corporate Tax impact on the Economy It is well documented through economic circles that taxes skew relative prices by shifting the supply curve to the left in a standard supply-demand model to create a deadweight loss. The deadweight loss is the area of the subsequent triangle with the endpoints at the pre-tax equilibrium, the supply […]
Tax Inversions: Regulation Chasing Corporate Tax Loopholes Part 1
The following was a research project completed for my Economics of Regulation class about tax inversions, the implications, and proposed solutions. Since this is a large paper, it will be split into 6 parts and published daily. Abstract – Corporate inversions have grown in popularity in recent years, and has drawn quite a bit of […]
December 20 Biotech Update
Well, this has been a strangely interesting day for the week before Christmas. I thought the bulk of news was done but I clearly spoke too soon. There is some good news for the sector as well as some good-well-maybe-bad-let-us-argue news. I am going to go through these as sort of quick hits as none […]
AGIO- Pivot to PKD
Agios Pharmaceuticals came to market in 2013 as a promising cancer metabolism company. Three years later, it has pivoted to rare disease. AG-120, an IDH1 mutant inhibitor being developed for oncology indications, remains the most advanced pipeline compound, but is no longer the main value driver. For that we look to AG-348 and AG-519, mid […]
ASH Update: TGTX
ASH 2016 has turned out to be an important convention for many small biotechs, and will likely be remembered as a break-out event for CAR-T therapies. Results from the Phase 1 TGR-1202/Ibrutinib combination study may prove crucial for the future of TG Therapeutics. Escalating doses of TGR-1202 ranged from 400mg to 800mg with a corresponding 420mg of […]
ASH Update 2: BLCM
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals’ leading clinical candidate is BPX-501, individualized T-cells transduced with a controllable suicide gene. They are being studied for use as an add-back following T-cell depletion during Haploidentical Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT). For individuals with certain hematological disorders, whether malignant or not, stem cell transplants represent the only hope for a cure. Siblings make […]
ASH Update: TRIL
Trillium Therapeutics presented interim data from its ongoing Phase 1 trial of the SIRPaFc TTI-621 at ASH this past weekend. These highly anticipated results gave a deeper look into the molecule’s safety and efficacy profile as well as potential mechanism of action. Trillium is at the forefront of a scramble to target the SIRPa-CD47 checkpoint […]
Dave Trading – Where is the value?
Dave gave me one line when I asked him about value… “not much value. Maybe write about how to make profit in a momo market while not risking too much.” Sure thing Dave! IBB is still well off its highs, but in the large cap space it may not be worth selling puts with such […]
Catatonic Economics – Unpacking a Trump win
On October 9, 2016, I made a prediction about this election that has come true. Hillary would lead the polls by 5 points throughout the election, and Trump would win. Trump’s campaign expressed the anger of the Americans who have been disenfranchised for 20 or so years. It is the opposite pendulum swing of Obama’s […]
Catatonic Economics – No one is talking about the greatest risk to America
Financial markets talk about a lot of headwinds to the economy. China devaluation, negative S&P earnings, presidential race, central bank actions, European banking problems, Japan, oil, etc. One that should be frontline news… more than the Trump tape, more than Kim Kardashian being (fake?) mugged, more than a backup QB kneeling for the national anthem. […]
