*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
BLCM: Staying on the Sidelines
Bellicum is a small biotech developing drugs in the hot field of adoptive cell therapeutics. Their lead candidate is a personalized T-cell product for use after stem cell transplants to prevent early infections. These cells are designed with a safety switch as a safeguard. The early stage pipeline consists of CAR-T and TCR based immunotherapies. BPX-501: To prepare […]
Achillion’s Pivot To Orphan Diseases
Through many years, Achillion focused on HCV, among the biggest prizes in drug discovery. The problem is they entered the field late while working on a very popular target. A nearly one year clinical hold on their protease inhibitor sovaprevir added to their woes. As work continued on HCV, by 2014, Achillion began a parallel development […]
Catatonic Economics – Brexit!
In response to Dave, “someone will nail the impact”… I figured I’d give my shot at it. My prediction last article was that sovereign debt along with other headwinds would cause a correction in the markets before year’s end. It took a lot shorter than I thought it would, and admittedly not for the reasons […]
Dave-Trading – June Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
Cup O' Joe – SRPT followup
***Joe Gantoss relies on knowing more, either through technical analysis & charts or DD & research.*** Last article, I spoke about the decision tree, and how to play the coming SRPT decision. This is a follow-up, since some important information was disclosed since that trade. The first piece of information is that SRPT received a […]
Catatonic Economics – The Four Letter Word
*** “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” – John Maynard Keynes *** Economics is called the dismal science for a reason. The real reason is because Thomas Malthus predicted that the population will grow exponentially while food can only grow additively, and therefore the world will be overpopulated in short […]
Catatonic Economics – Nippon!
*** “I’m turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so.” – Janet Yellen *** All right, so maybe Janet Yellen didn’t say that outside a karaoke bar… but she is turning Japanese monetary policy! (Song by “The Vapors”, have to give credit where it is due) On April 28th, the […]
TRIL – A quick update from BloomBurton 2016 conference
Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL) – Nasdaq Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) presented at BloomBurton-2016 Healthcare Investor Conference in Toronto on May 3rd, the same as last year the speaker was TRIL’s Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) Dr. Bob Uger, he took the stand in Hall A (the largest room at the conference) that was full with investors, press […]
Eteplirsen: Reasonable Evidence of Efficacy
The Adcom is over and Eteplirsen was voted down. A final decision still remains for approval. Much was discussed in the Adcom, the key arguments were over the following: 1. Adequacy of dystrophin creation. 2. Efficacy of 201/202 Trial vs Historical Controls Both are intertwined. Adequacy of dystrophin creation: FDA had little faith in […]
Catatonic Economics
***”Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions. *** One contribution I make to the CRG team is my background in economics. I have a pervasive interest in macroeconomics and am close to getting my Masters in Economics. I have worked for an economic indicator at the US Census Bureau, and work as […]
SRPT – YEAR 4 DATA ANALYSIS
YEAR 4 DATA ANALYSIS Review of Eteplirsen to treat DMD By: @boscaptn, et al. Compiled From SAREPTA Public Data For Week 216 (Year 4) of Study 201/202 for Exon 51 Disclaimer: NO FINANCIAL ADVICE – The Information in this report is provided for education and informational purposes only, without any express or […]
Dave-Trading – GILD
Gilead – GILD *** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** Dave LOVES writing about GILD. Their combined Hep C franchise is by all metrics the most successful launch ever, so it is […]
Biotech Inflection Point – Watch List-1
Following my last technical analysis “XBI – A Look At The Near and Long Term In The Biotech Sector” I will start adding names to our watch list with some beaten down tickers, we can find many deep value biotech stocks in the recent pullback, some are trading at or very close to their cash […]
GWPH: Is Epidiolex Nothing But Placebo?
GW Pharmaceuticals made the mistake of allowing expectations to exceed its abilities, forcing the company to announce a delay in the read-out of its pivotal Dravet study. Data originally anticipated for release at the end of 2015 has been pushed back a full quarter, leaving investors on their toes. This Dravet trial is the first of 2 studies […]
Sarepta: Is Eteplirsen Dead?
This was originally going to be titled “Ahead of the AdCom” but that no longers seems fitting. The highly anticipated Advisory Committee meeting originally scheduled for Friday January 22 was canceled due to blizzard conditions. Extremely negative reviews in Briefing documents [link] from the FDA are leading many to expect a denial for Eteplirsen’s drug […]
XBI – A Look At The Near and Long Term In The Biotech Sector
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)–NYSE We will maintain our focus on the XBI as the biotech barometer, many are waiting for the XBI to outperform the IBB again and lead the way to a real recovery, to give us the sign that the technical correction is done and we are back to a […]
BLCM: Limited Opportunities In a Changing Environment
The driving interest in Bellicum revolves around its safety switch for use in hematologic stem cell transplants. It’s product, BPX-501, is a T-cell therapy containing a caspase-9 gene that can be activated by the compound rimiducid, leading to cell apoptosis. BPX-501 is initially being positioned as an adjunct T-cell therapy for allogeneic HSCT. Stem […]
LOXO: Staying On TRK
Loxo Oncology presented highly anticipated results from its ongoing Phase 1 study of TRK inhibitor LOXO-101 yesterday November 8, in a latebreaker at AACR-NCI-EORTC; they did not disappoint. Disclosure of a response from just one patient with diagnosed TRK fusion mutation in a July publication of Cancer Discovery set much of this excitement in motion. […]
SRPT: Better The Devil You Know
The Bull/Bear tussle in Sarepta has been ongoing for years now. Long term investors have ridden a rollercoaster as excitement has inevitably been followed by disappointment. Its Exon 51 skipping drug eteplirsen is set for an Advisory Committee meeting January 22, 2016 with the PDUFA date tentatively set for February 26. A war of words […]
