We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
November 8th Biotech Update
We remain range bound with some weakness to end last week and some indecision to start this week. I still think we make a move to the upper end of this range at some point and I do not think the first attempt to breakout will be successful. It is possible but my running assumption […]
April 13th Biotech Update
A mixed start to the week, which seems fitting given the technical analysis that Joe published last night. I highly recommend that you read it as it lays out the next move in the market and I agree that we seem to be at a decision point. Perhaps we do not get the decision this […]
May 6th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week for the market with the surprise tariff news hitting the market. I would not be stunned for the effect to be muted given how frequently Chine trade news changes. For all we know progress will be made this afternoon and all will be good again. As such, my […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
April 9 Biotech Update
A pretty slow start to the week. The sector underperformed yesterday and is red today but doing a little better than the broader market. We are at an interesting spot. It is not clear whether we broke through the upper end of a range last week or whether we have hit resistance and will reverse […]
October23 Biotech Update
It is unfortunate that the earnings weeks comes as the market seems to want to collapse. Industrial earnings are finally seeing the impact of the trade policies and now apparently it is a biotech issue. It is hard to see how the sector would avoid being pulled into a larger market sell-off regardless of the […]
September 27th Biotech Update
We continue to see the disconnect between the IBB and XBI, where the large caps are outperforming the SMID. Given that the previous range break on the IBB did not hold, I suspect we will need greater SMID participation but it is not crazy to see investors first put money to work in large caps […]
September 13th Biotech Update
We are finally getting a broad snap back rally but it needs to be more than a simple morning rally that is faded as the day goes along. If this rally is not built upon during the day, then odds are it simply reset the RSI and opened up a path to retest the bottom […]
August 30th Biotech Update
The range finally seems broken and pretty decisively to the upside. The sector is not just moving higher but it is outperforming the broader market on a relative basis. Given the strength of the move and the overbought conditions across the market, I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the near term. […]
August 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the week both in having news to talk about and the price action. While it is easy to get excited about good price action, we remain in the range. Just as many felt that the sector would break down when we were at the low end, it is easy to get […]
August 24th biotech update
The snoozer of a week continues with the sector still chopping in its range. Perhaps next week we wake up a little but odds are we are stuck in this pattern until the fall conference season begins in September. 1. We will have some news this weekend with the PFE tafamidis data and while odds […]
August 13 Biotech Update
The chop continues and I suspect this week will be no different. There is not any news to start the week that would excite or disappoint, which means the previous trend (of no trend) is the path of least resistance. It is interesting that no one even talks about M&A anymore as that was supposed […]
May 8 Biotech Update
It continues to be a slow news week, which is not completely unexpected given the series of large cap earnings. Today might very well be a macro day with Trump scheduled to release his decision on the Iran deal. That could fall any numbers of ways, so I suspect the market to tread water until […]
April 5 Biotech Update
The sector finally got its bounce and took some of the beaten down large caps with it. The sector (and market more generally) needs to follow through on this move and I do not mean a couple more hours but days of consolidation. A little back filling is fine but we cannot have another one […]
September 20 Biotech Update
We are starting to get some meaningful data this week and while I suspect it will have some broader upside today, I will be curious to see if the sector moves and maintains a move. It seems to me that everyone is really wanting to see the AXON data and if any data is going […]
October 7 Biotech Update
There have been some interesting moves and news since Wednesday but even looking at the sector today, the volumes seem a little weak in most names. As such, there are some moves that seem meaningful in individual names with high volume but I am not reading any of those moves (or the other low volume […]
August 20 Biotech Update
Another gap lower but the market remains in a rut refusing to breakdown or breakout. As I have said before, 2015 has been a year of churn and that is going to end up being really robust support for a breakout or really strong resistance for a breakdown. At this point, there is not a […]
December 15 Biotech Update
A slow news start to the week and perhaps we are getting into the holiday doldrums a little early. In addition, the Santa Claus rally has been missing and that seems driven by the collapse in oil prices. This is obviously a boon to consumers around the globe and should be a tailwind for global […]
March 31 Biotech Update- Is this the Bounce We are Looking For?
So this seems to be the rally we were looking for but that is assuming it does not fade in the afternoon like every other recent rally attempt. So far the rally is a little more broad based and stronger but we have seen this story before. That being said even if this is the […]
