There is some news today so I will do a quick Friday note. 1. ATNX had their data and it showed a statistically significant OS improvement. We are getting a little sell the news for a couple of reasons. First, the stock had a good run into these data. Second, the data are not perfect. […]
November 13 Biotech Update
All three SMIDs this week had positive news although only AMRN really took off on it. Of course, AMRN had the smallest positive move into the week and probably had the highest amount of doubts over the catalyst, so it sort of makes sense. I want to spend today going back over the other two […]
November 11 Biotech Update
This is not necessarily a big week for the sector (the trend still seems in intact) but certainly some big SMID catalyst for stocks that I follow. In fact, there will be a trifecta of news (two of which already happened) that could be meaningful. So let us dive into what had happened. 1. PIRS […]
October 16 Biotech Update
Some good news today and most was unexpected. Some needs more discussion than other but I want to touch on all of them. Ideally this will be the catalysts needed to continue the move higher especially given the lack of a macro catalyst. ALXN is buying ACHN for just under $1B. This requires the least […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Today seems like a reversal day. The sector has been down for 11 straight trading sessions and is at a support level. I would have thought that $74 on the XBI would have been stronger support but it busted right through even after the brutal selling. I am not huge into short term trading but […]
August 7 Biotech Update
Are we in the process of bottoming? Perhaps. The sector still cannot get the moves it deserves based on the fundamental news that has come the past couple of weeks. What will be most telling is when the macro fades and market rallies, does the sector outperform? In other words, have people noticed the good […]
June 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the morning for the sector, although it seems mostly in line with the broader markets. Given the performance the past couple days, however, I am happy to see it up with the broader markets, especially given that lack of any real news (although we are still potentially in the glow of […]
May 6th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week for the market with the surprise tariff news hitting the market. I would not be stunned for the effect to be muted given how frequently Chine trade news changes. For all we know progress will be made this afternoon and all will be good again. As such, my […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
April 24th Biotech Update
Yesterday was good but not a good start to today. We were certainly due for a bounce and we should be looking for signs as to the next move. The upward trend has been broken but we have yet to clearly establish what the trend will be (higher or lower) or whether we will be […]
April 17 Biotech Update
The trend in the sector is moving onto more and more shaky ground. Breaking below $86.22 on the XBI (the most recent low) would end the streak of higher highs and higher lows. We still have some room but even at these levels (if we reverse) it looks like the trend is not quite as […]
April 16 Biotech Update
It was not the ideal start to the week but also not the worst. The selling from the morning opening was bad but we may have bottomed in the afternoon as there was a minor late day run. I would use yesterday’s intraday low as a key level and would get less constructive on the […]
April 15 Biotech Update
Certainly an interesting start to the week. In terms of the broader sector, I suspect that we have a positive week as we are in the area where a bounce would be expected with the current trend. If we continue to have underperformance and a negative week, then we need to start thinking more about […]
April 12 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly underperforming the broader markets and while that is frustrating, I do not see anything that is concerning. We did not get the breakout but if we bottom around $90, then we have set up another higher low. For me to really change my view, I would need to see the XBI […]
March 14 (Pi day) biotech update
A nice late day rally yesterday was a good sign. That was what I was waiting for after a morning of listless direction. It is looking more and more likely that the sector wants to test the recent high in the mid $93s in relative short order. Given the strength it would not stun me […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a good day for the sector and we are right back to what could be some resistance on the XBI at $90. There was some good news coming out that sort of stoked the move and it will be interesting to see if we pause today or extend. Clearly we are pausing in […]
January 17 Biotech Update
The grind in place or higher option remains possible with the market. It will be interesting to see how the approach of earning season pressures traders. Does the lack of a correction before earning season pressure traders to chase or does it lead traders to take some risk of the table to avoid losing their […]
January 11 Biotech Update
Everyone continues to expect a pullback and yesterday looked like it would be the day that starts the correction but we ended up green again. This has been on the of the strongest JPM weeks I remember (at least from a price action perspective). Yesterday is another brick in the wall of the idea that […]
November 13 Biotech Update
We are getting what I suspect is a dead cat bounce after the trouncing yesterday. The recent lows need to hold but there really seems to be nothing in terms of sentiment to indicate that those lows will hold. We seem back in the scenario where early green opens fade during the day and turn […]
November 12 Biotech Update
A rough start to the week. The market just feels heavy and looks like it wants to break through the recent lows. It looked for a little like it wanted break from the downtrend and form a new channel higher but the week is not starting off like that is in the cards. Another leg […]
