Did we dodge the Middle East risk? We did to a certain extent, but I do not think we are completely out of the woods yet. If Israel decided not to response, then I would be quite confident that the risks are significantly lower but it seems like Israel is going to respond and they […]
March 6th Biotech Update
Despite the good start to the week, it has not been as positive of a continuation. We are at the lower end of a range but one that I do not have confidence can hold. I like the $94-$95 level a lot more given that it had acted as resistance for awhile. I do think […]
January 24th Biotech Update
The sector has been dragging for a little. Not really bouncing from the recent selling but also not accelerating to the downside. I still have no real conviction whether or not the next move is another leg lower or a bounce from here. I do have the conviction that even another leg lower does not […]
January 11th Biotech Update
JPM has been a little slow on the news front. There were a couple of small deals and some rumors of others, but it really looks like December was the real flood of M&A as opposed to JPM. If we look at the past month or so, then the deals have been quite robust, just […]
November 20th Biotech Update
It was a good end to the week and let us see how we start. I do not know how to really read the moves this week as I suspect it is going to be pretty slow on the news and the volume front. This morning is probably pretty indicative as to what we would […]
September 29th Biotech Update
We ended down yesterday but I actually find the trading encouraging. There was a big move down early in the day and we spent the rest of the trading day grinding higher. We still ended lower but we had one hour of selling and the rest of the day was buying. If we can continue […]
September 11th Biotech Update
Not a ton has changed. We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them. As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]
July 11th Biotech Update
It was a very nice start to the week, but I sort of feel like we are in a strange spot. I am not convinced that the sector is now clear of breaking down. I can easily see a couple days of weakness that puts us under the lows of yesterday. I can also see […]
September 29th Biotech Update
As much as we had a good day early this week, the market looks really tenuous. I have seen some statistics about position that look quite bullish (i.e. investors are extremely under-invested) but I have also seen some statistics that show the interest rates have move very fast and the market needs to catch up […]
May 10th Biotech Update
This should be it. The sector has been oversold and very stretched to the downside and was due for a bounce. Today we finally see some significant M&A and this should trigger a nice multi-day rally. If this deal cannot move the sector in a meaningful way when it is oversold then I do not […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
The sector and market continue to do poorly. We are getting close to at least a short term bottom as the move lower has been pretty quick and relentless. Obviously the pattern is for these to be pauses before another move lower but the first thing we need is to at least stop the bleeding. […]
April 6th Biotech Update
We had a good day and then a bad day and hopefully we have another good day. The sector is doing well (or at least better than it has been for a long time). It has been awhile since the sector looked to be setting up an uptrend and while we have been disappointed before, […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
January 6th Biotech Update
The sector is not having a good start to the year. I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM. It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]
December 6th Biotech Update
We started lower this morning which is not that bad. I think if we rallied off the start then we likely give it up but a dip to flush out the frustrated traders (and let us be honest that is all of us at this point) might clear the deck for a really rally later […]
November 10th Biotech Update
Guess what, the sector remains range bound. We approached the upper end of the range and it was a pretty quick move to the upper end of the range but now we are pulling back. I thought there was a chance that the sector would get closer to the upper end of the range before […]
November 8th Biotech Update
We remain range bound with some weakness to end last week and some indecision to start this week. I still think we make a move to the upper end of this range at some point and I do not think the first attempt to breakout will be successful. It is possible but my running assumption […]
July 7th Biotech Update
The broader market did not help yesterday but we certainly did not ruin the potential uptrend but we did nothing to confirm it either. I think another decent sized down day today would be a problem but we have almost been straight down the past week so a snap back rally would not be a […]
June 19th Biotech Update
I think the sector is setting up well if we can break above the $138 level in the near term. Yes, we had a couple days of weakness earlier this week but the recent strength (modest as it has been) is setting up that weakness as a potential higher low. This become more likely if […]
