Not much has changed in the Ukraine. This is probably a positive for the market but this stalemate cannot last indefinitely. If the Ukrainians are successfully hitting the Russian supply lines (as it appears) then the Russian forces will soon (another week or so) have very little supplies left that they will be unable to […]
Feb9th Biotech Update
The sector is doing well this week and hopefully we can keep it up. Not a lot of sector changing news but there is enough news that if one was looking for a reason to buy there are reasons. I still think it is less about the fundamentals at this point and more about the […]
February 4th Biotech Update
So we have not broken down which leaves the messy bottoming process still the potential pattern. Today will be sort of interesting from a market and sector perspective with the strong jobs report. The jobs report was unexpectedly strong and I assume that will increase rates and rate hike expectations. We know that the sector […]
January 28th Biotech Update
So it seems like the sector will not be building off of the reversals earlier in the week. We can point to a number of potential factors like the fed and interest rates, the correction in the broader markets, the risk of conflict in Europe, or the spate of clinical holds this week. I am […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
January 11th Biotech Update
I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday. The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows. The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging. Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]
January 10th Biotech Update
Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022. While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference. I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]
January 7th Biotech Update
We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today. If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week. Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]
December 13th Biotech Update
We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector. So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues. There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector is good at one thing and that is creating despair and frustration. The selloff has just been relentless and this is very much sentiment related. You can have relentless selling when fundamentals change, i.e. the energy sector at the start of the pandemic when the economy was shut down. There is nothing happening […]
November 19th Biotech Update
Guess what? We are stuck in a range and no one cares really about anything that happens in the sector. I grant that the news coming out of the sector this year has been pretty bad. The regulatory setbacks and clinical setbacks have been pretty non-stop. Add in the lack of a compelling drug launch […]
November 8th Biotech Update
We remain range bound with some weakness to end last week and some indecision to start this week. I still think we make a move to the upper end of this range at some point and I do not think the first attempt to breakout will be successful. It is possible but my running assumption […]
October 29th Biotech Update
It was a good day for the sector yesterday and with generally positive earnings there is a chance we could build some momentum. Add to that the removal of the drug pricing reform threat (it came out yesterday that was removed as a source of funding) and you have the potential to develop momentum. Of […]
October 28th Biotech Update
The sector is being the sector. It really seems to be coiling for a big move as the range has been pretty tight. I think the concern is that the broader market might be due for a pullback and given how poor the sector has been what is going to happen if the broader market […]
October 27th Biotech Update
Would you be surprised to hear that we are basically trudging along in a sentiment mire where everyone hates the sector but its not making new lows? This really feels like a sector that has had everyone who wanted to sell sell-out their positions. We know that the sector is very underweighted but if we […]
October 25th Biotech Update
The sector continues its muddle. We are approaching earnings seasons but there are not any real launches that are exciting and M&A has picked up a little but clearly has not really sparked interest. It is a broken record to talk about the sentiment and how poor it has been. It is at the point […]
October 14th Biotech Update
A good morning so far. It is certainly nice to see and ideally this is where we start to build some momentum. We seem to have had countless false starts but if you take a step back it almost looks as if this entire year (since about March) has been a range between $120 and […]
October 13th Biotech Update
Well, this week is not a disaster and that is positive. We have not built any momentum to the upside but we also do not seem on the verge of breaking down. We are inching closer to a seasonally positive period for the sector and so treading water and forming a base is not bad. […]
September 30th Biotech Update
What seemed like long rumored has come to pass with a decently sized deal in the sector. The reaction yesterday was quite negative and I think expectations on price got too high. I firmly believe that if this deal was announced last Monday (before the runup in XLRN started) at this exact same price the […]
September 29th Biotech Update
The sector is hostage to the broader market at this point. I think if there was at least a neutral broader market environment then the sector would look and feel a lot better. Between the Evergrande issue and now what is probably fears over the debt ceiling (yet again we have to talk about this), […]
