January 12th Biotech Update

I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped.  There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming.  Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]

March 17th Biotech Update

What is going on with the sector?  It seemed like everything was going well and then the bottom dropped out.  Given the recent history with what seemed like a month of pure selling I suspect that it feels like we are set for another big move down.   Obviously that is possible and we need to […]

December 28th Biotech Update

As expected the news is slowing down and there is not a ton of news to talk about today if there is really anything news worthy.  Given the lack of news I suspect that the sector and markets will continue the low volume seasonal trade, which means a bullish bias.  Perhaps there is an added […]

November 4th Biotech Update

The election is (sort of) over.  While it ended up being closer than the polls indicated, it appears that Biden will win barring some unprecedented court decision to invalidate large numbers of legally cast votes.  The closeness of the election, however, makes the Senate now lean Republican.  I suspect both Georgia contests will have to […]

August 20th Biotech Update

The sector seems to be hanging in there despite the CRLs yesterday but there remains some interesting fallout that I want to focus on today. I would not be surprised to see the sector ultimately move higher in the near term given how well it traded on pretty negative news but we will see. I […]

June 2 Biotech Update

The market held up well yesterday and so far this morning.  Perhaps I am alone in finding this an odd strength given all the issues and it leads to the question of who is buying the market at these level and fundamental context?  Long term value investors?  Unlikely as we know Buffet is not buying.  […]

May 13th Biotech Update

Are we heading to the pullback that confirms the breakout?  Perhaps but we could also be in the frustrating the bears phase of the move.  Remember that the most common outcome of a market that makes a new all time high is to have another day that makes a marginal new high.  In other words, […]

September 10 Biotech Update

Surprise.  The sector is weak.  I am a little surprised that we are not see a faster sell off as clearly there is no momentum and we have broken support.  This really seems like a nice and orderly sell off and this is not necessarily good.  The selling does not end when there is no […]

August 26 Biotech Update

Market starts the week higher but I do not trust it as there is the old saying that markets never bottom on Fridays. To be fair futures were down a lot and have rallied before the market opened but I remain suspicious of the green open. The ideal scenario for a robust turnaround would be […]

August 15 Biotech Update

While the macro has been major the past couple of days, the sector specific news has been pretty sparse. I was hoping something interesting would happen to write about but there really is nothing major. It does make it a little easier to trade in that we will be sucked up in the macro maelstrom […]

July 31 Biotech Update

Well, this would have been sooner but as soon as I got to my office I had a train of people “needing” to talk to me immediately. I did not even have a chance to get coffee. In any case, I have a break from the people and can look at the market. It finally […]

July 24 Biotech Update

I am a little surprised that there was not more movement from the Senate drug pricing plan (which was later supported by the president). We finally have the outlines of what drug pricing reform will look like over the next couple years and it is generally good for the sector but there was limited reaction. […]

June 25 Biotech Update

So that was unexpected. First, the market is down and sector is higher. Second, we got another large merger to digest. Obviously I will focus on the deal and its implications. 1. I need to go back and listen the conference call so there might be some additional insight later this week but this deal […]

June 24 Market Update

The sector is in an interesting spot. Tensions with Iran remain elevated but did not escalate, which should lead to a risk on move and while the market was tepidly higher the sector is clearly underperforming. Usually risk-on benefits the sector and while one could argue that the elevated macro tensions remain a drag, there […]

June 6 Biotech Update

Nothing has really changed. Oddly the sector is really underperforming the market today at the start, which is not good but at least we are seeing an end to the tight correlations. I still think everything is going to move with news on the Mexican tariffs. If they go into effect, then everything goes down. […]

April 2nd Biotech Update

The sector seems to be setting up for a breakout(down). Since the gap higher in late February, it looks like we are getting higher lows and lower highs. The range is narrowing and we should soon be breaking out of the narrowing range and that is going to generate the next significant move. I still […]

March 28 Biotech Update

Yesterday was not a great day for the sector but we seem to be bouncing back today. It appears that the next move will not be easy in that this churn and volatility is going to be difficult to play. I still think we go with the trend (which is higher) and ignore the near […]

March 27 Biotech Update

Yesterday was a nice little rally in the sector, which given the sharp pullback was not completely unexpected. The more interesting question is whether that rally can be built upon over the next couple days. The sentiment from Friday and Monday was so negative that many are likely expecting more selling. That is certainly possible […]

March 21 Biotech Update

This will certainly be a bad day for the large cap but I would not be surprised to see the XBI outperform if not eventually turn green as M&A fever hits the space. The BIIB failure is large and important for a number of reasons, which I will go through today. 1. While many did […]

March 12 Biotech Update

I am finally back and the sector appears to have pulled back a little. I do not see this a particularly bad pull back as it looks to have closed a gap and bounced off of it. In my mind, it appears to be setting up as a successful test of the recent breakout assuming […]