I think the sector is setting up well if we can break above the $138 level in the near term. Yes, we had a couple days of weakness earlier this week but the recent strength (modest as it has been) is setting up that weakness as a potential higher low. This become more likely if […]
October 18 Biotech Update
We finally have some M&A in the sector but I am not convinced it will have a very broad effect. While it is not a small deal, the $2B or so price tag is not game changing for anyone. In addition, the top holders were overwhelmingly biotech specialists and not generalists. Clearly it will be […]
September 10 Biotech Update
There is nothing going on in the sector. No real news. No new deals. You would have thought that September would bring about some news but it seems like we are stuck in the summer pattern. It looks like that breakout failed its test and the next key to watch is what happens at 120 […]
June 27 Biotech Update
We still might be able to salvage a bullish view but it is getting pretty difficult. Clearly the breakout did not occur but we are still in higher highs and higher lows position from the April lows but we cannot have another big sell off and maintain that view. On the positive side, we have […]
October 2 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of sector specific news to start the week, although there seems to be some minor news. In these situations the sector tends to follow the broader market with a slight positive bias given that it remains in a bull market. I am a little surprised that there was not a […]
June 6 Biotech Update
I am back from ASCO with a lot to cover and I will focus on broader themes today and spend the rest of the week with more company specific commentary. The reaction to ASCO so far has been bad but as I noted before that is not completely unexpected. The trading action before ASCO does […]
May 30 Biotech Update
It is ASCO week and the end of a long Memorial Day weekend and there is no news. Usually heading into long weekends there is the expectation/hope that a deal can be finished. Unsurprisingly there are no deals but perhaps a little surprising last week ended with no real excitement or talk of a deal. […]
May 18 Biotech Update
I do not want to spend time on macro given the ASCO abstract dump. As I noted before there is usually not much that comes out of these abstracts as they are early cuts of smaller amounts of data than we will see at ASCO. So for the vast majority of companies the conclusion will […]
May 12 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing OK. The market appears oddly bifurcated again with the large caps generally underperforming but there are some nice moves in the SMID. This is perhaps the M&A bid coming back into the sector or perhaps is just a reflection that the large caps have little growth and weak pipelines […]
May 11 Biotech Update
There are a couple of quick hits that I want to get today as we have some news but we are also getting closer to ASCO. I suspect ASCO will progressively take up more of the discussion, so I do want to place some ideas out there before ASCO gets dissected to death. 1. In […]
ECYT Fails to Meet OS Endpoint; Hope Rests on Tubulysin
Endocyte presented much anticipated results from its Phase II TARGET trial of vintafolide in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress. The study compared vintafolide to vintafolide plus docetaxel, to docetaxel alone as second line treatment in folate-receptor positive patients with NSCLC. As a reminder, Vintafolide is a […]
September 29 Biotech Update
A crappy start to the weak but perhaps we will get a wash out followed by a rally. Despite the selling, the sector is doing OK but clearly everything is being hit. There was a good amount of news this morning and I want to focus on two of them and follow up with additional […]
July 31 Biotech Update
The market has certainly been pretty poor since the spike on the GDP print, which is not a great near term signal. As would be expected biotechs are following the broader market lower but not really underperforming more than one would expect for a highly volatile sector. Of course the small caps are getting hit […]
June 18 Biotech Update
The sector (and market really) has been choppy since late yesterday morning. I would not read anything into these movements as it is a combination of low volume summer doldrums and the lack of any strong short term trend. As I have been saying for awhile, there will be a positive bias to trading for […]
May 20 Biotech Update
The market remains neutral in that stocks are reacting to news in predictable ways and there does not seem any real bid or selling to the sector in general. It seems like people have their positions established and are adjusting them when new information arises but other than that there does not seem to be […]
May 19 Biotech Update- The Merger Drama
It was certainly an interesting start to the week in terms of the PFE/AZN drama but the price action outside of those names was somewhat muted (I guess also outside the ITMN move). My point is that outside the names directly related to news, there was nothing significant and more of a trending day (with […]
May 2 Biotech Update- The Ups and Downs of the Sector
It was a generally good day in terms of news for the sector (with notable exceptions) but the price action was bad. I think this is going to be the probable going forward in that trading will be very choppy and volatile despite positive or negative news. I do not see this trading as changing […]
April 16 Biotech Update- An Early Continuation But Still a Fragile Sector
This is another slow day (in terms of news) and this time I promise to keep it short and actually keep it short as the sector is so volatile right now that it is almost impossible to explain why some stocks are going higher and others lower. For instance, I have no idea why ECYT […]
March 28 Biotech Update- Treading Water Can Be Dangerous
So today was another mixed day for biotechs but the large caps still are above the recent lows and even the “bad” news of the sovaldi new scripts being down for a week was not enough to push GILD to new lows or even really have much pin action across the sector. So all of […]
March 26- Biotechs are Not Dead Yet
This is a better day but sellers still seem there but buying seems more concerted today. It appears that yesterday was the buyers dipping their toes in the water to make sure the coast was clear and today they seemed much more willing to put cash to work. As we saw with yesterday, however, the […]
