A decent start to the week, which was to be expected with the large deal. AMGN held up better than I would have expected, and the sector did well but remains in the range. We are getting to the holiday season and so I would not read too much into the moves but we still […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
October 28th Biotech Update
We were hitting the upper end of the range and so it is not completely surprising that we were a little weak. The tech earnings have not been great and that could hit the broader market, which would not great for the sector. That being said, The sector has been holding its own and the […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The market did well yesterday and hopefully we can build on that into the weekend. The ideal scenario is that old level that we broke out of ends up being the support that we use to move higher. Yesterday was a good start for that process but we need continuation. GILD announced some more detailed […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 4th Biotech Update
Are we finally starting to see the wheels of M&A loosen? Perhaps. We got some this morning as well as a new rumor. It is enough to move the sector (at least a little). We are definitely in a different spot as the news is actually moving the sector higher. It was not that long […]
June 7th Biotech Update
I am back from my little vacation and have some catching up to do. The sector seems to be looking for direction as it bounced around from my perspective. I did not follow its movements closely but from the distance of the beach it looks as if the sector has not made a decision to […]
May 10th Biotech Update
This should be it. The sector has been oversold and very stretched to the downside and was due for a bounce. Today we finally see some significant M&A and this should trigger a nice multi-day rally. If this deal cannot move the sector in a meaningful way when it is oversold then I do not […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
So we had a late day rally yesterday and I am not sure what to think about it. I sort of prefer the weak Monday and gap down Tuesday morning to reverse green sort of setups. It was nice to see the sector rally on what was a group of bad news but with […]
April 29th Biotech Update
We remain stuck in that I think the sector is gong to move with the broader market and the broader market is not good at this point. I would think both the sector and broader market were oversold in the short term and due for at least a dead cat bounce and yesterday looked to […]
March 24th Biotech Update
The sector started weak and then had a nice recovery but then reverse back to the downside. I would not read too much into it as we basically remain in the range formed from the last move higher. As long as we do not make a move back towards the recent lows, we could see […]
March 11th Biotech (and Ukraine and Energy) Update
The market and conflict in the Ukraine tough to read right now. Things have more or less settled into a stalemate in the Ukraine and the market is probably OK with that but this stalemate is not sustainable. The Ukrainians have been degrading the Russia supplies and this degrades Russian capabilities and increases the chance […]
March 7th Biotech (and Ukraine and Energy) Update
The situation in the Ukraine seems to have ground to a halt but this is a lull before another storm. The market is adjusting to the new reality but is still going to react to the ebbs and flows of the conflict. Risks are still tremendous and I am not sure how it all turns […]
February 16th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
The whiplash continues. A good day yesterday and weakness today. On the positive, it could be the case that we are continuing to build that messy bottom in the sector and so while I would like to see a nice clear uptrend, a long base building where we bounce around but do not make lower […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
January 26th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We did not end completely green the other day but we had two really impressive drops and reversals in a row. It will be awhile before the market can top Monday and even though Tuesday still ended red it was a signal that the bottom may be in at least in the short term. Those […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
