Another week and another noticeable lack of M&A. At this point, we are so use to nothing happening that it seems like a normal week (which it is). Even though I enter every week with the expectation that nothing will be done, it still surprises me that the large caps that are getting destroyed because […]
October 27 Biotech Update
It has been an absolutely brutal earing season for the sector and for pretty good reason but you have also seen some babies being thrown out with the bathwater. Given the selling that has occurred, it is a natural reaction to assume these are buys or a bounce is coming but I prefer to sit […]
October 24 Biotech Update
This is the start of the wave of earnings and the sector is right at a critical support level. These earnings will determine (or most likely will determine) whether or not we bounce higher from this support for the next leg higher or break lower. So in some ways the reaction to the earnings is […]
October 11 Biotech Update
More of the same. The sector seems to be content to drift on low volume, which is pretty consistent with the broader market and the lack of fundamental news. Odds are this is the calm before the storm with the most likely set of news coming from earnings but even that should not be completely […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I was in my office yesterday to write but there is really nothing happening in the sector that is exceptionally newsworthy. I was hoping we would have some news today but it looks like we are in a bit of a lull. The good news is that it will not last too much longer as […]
September 29 Biotech Update
The sector is off to a good start but it is a relatively slow news day but the news was certainly good. It will be interesting to see how the sector closes as given the recent strength we have not seen M&A buzz and rumors take off. That is an old bull market staple with […]
September 15 Biotech Update
It still looks to me that the sector is acting less like a sector and more like an aggregation of individual stocks. That is always true (it is not a stock market but a market of stocks) but usually there is a rising (or lowering) tide that raises (or lowers) all boats effect. I find […]
August 31 Biotech Update
The good news and move for the sector continues. In isolation the move higher seems a stretch in terms of the fundamental news that we have seen the past week. The news has been good but we have had weeks with better news and did not have this reaction. Clearly sentiment has changed in the […]
August 30 Biotech Update
The sector and perhaps even broader market look good. One of my fears about the risk of a government shut down and/or debt ceiling might be resolving to a certain extent. There seems to be a growing consensus to do a three month funding, debt ceiling hike, and hurricane Harvey relief in a single bill. […]
August 28 Biotech Update
The long sector nightmare is over and we have a merger Monday and GILD did a deal. There was also some interesting BIIB data that has been loss in the shuffle but let us focus on the deal and what it tells us going forward. 1. Once again let me note that I am a […]
August 23 Biotech Update
The sector had a good day yesterday with an early retracement this morning. I am a little surprised that there is not more weakness in the broader market. Last night Trump threatened a shutdown over the border wall funding, which is one of the risks I have been talking about. Does the market think that […]
July 27 Biotech Update
There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
July 24 Biotech Update
It should be a big week for news but it is starting a little slow, which is not unexpected as the earnings are clustered Tuesday through Thursday. There is some minor news to start the week but it is simply a small appetizer as to what should be a week of news. That being said […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]
July 14 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to end the week, so I will touch on a couple of quick longer term themes. The sector was a little stronger than I would have expected yesterday on the back of the news that medicare will not run out of money until 2029 meaning that IPAB will not be […]
July 12 Biotech Update
Another day with little news (at least early as the NVS ad com is today). This is really the calm before the storm as we are inching closer to the end of the summer and the start of the fall brokerage conferences and we are actually only a couple weeks away from the start of […]
June 23 Biotech Update
We are finally getting a break in the move higher but it has been quiet impressive. There was less excitement in the move than I would have thought, which I see as a sign that a lot were caught flat footed and felt under-invested (although gauging sentiment from twitter might not be the best idea). […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
June 13 Biotech Update
It is days like this that show why the sector cannot have nice things (as the saying goes). We seemed to be getting some traction and were approaching what has been strong resistance and we get hit with bad news. I said it before and I will say it again, I think people are attributing […]
