A rough start to the week. I suspect it was a combination of a little bit of underwhelming JPM news and worries about the Fed and Macro. Yes, there were deals and data and generally the news out of JPM was good but there was nothing that was ground breaking or thesis changing (in a […]
March 4th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Sorry I have missed a lot this week but it has been a difficult week but I should be back to the regular flow. There is a lot I kind of missed and it will take me a bit to catch up. While there will be some company specific information and moves, we are going […]
February 24th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
So Russia invaded and the market is going down. It seems like a lot of the broader market anticipated this and so it is not down as much as it could have been. I think investors are still trying to work through the economic and political impacts and so there could be some parts of […]
February 18th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We have more of the same today. The crisis in Ukraine is only escalating as we head into a long weekend and there are no indications that this escalation will decrease. I have the feeling that as we get closer to the end of trading that investors will think less and less favorably about being […]
February 16th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
The whiplash continues. A good day yesterday and weakness today. On the positive, it could be the case that we are continuing to build that messy bottom in the sector and so while I would like to see a nice clear uptrend, a long base building where we bounce around but do not make lower […]
February 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
I think the market and sector is in a holding pattern until we see what happens with Russia and the Ukraine. US intelligence indicates an attack this week (with some details indicating a false flag on Tuesday and attack on Wednesday). If we can get through this week without an attack then perhaps some of […]
Feb9th Biotech Update
The sector is doing well this week and hopefully we can keep it up. Not a lot of sector changing news but there is enough news that if one was looking for a reason to buy there are reasons. I still think it is less about the fundamentals at this point and more about the […]
February 7th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and we are still in the middle of earnings. Obviously the sector has been oversold and it is at least due for a dead cat bounce. It is also possible that last week was the start of the messy bottoming process. I am not sure even the market knows. […]
February 4th Biotech Update
So we have not broken down which leaves the messy bottoming process still the potential pattern. Today will be sort of interesting from a market and sector perspective with the strong jobs report. The jobs report was unexpectedly strong and I assume that will increase rates and rate hike expectations. We know that the sector […]
January 24th Biotech Update
Well, we have seen this show way too many times. The sector is absolutely bidless and while there does not seem to be panic per se there is an absolute indifference to the selling. To me it just looks like no interest whatsoever to buy the sector and no one remains in size that can […]
January 21st Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Not a lot to write at this point as we are past JPM and coming up to earnings season. The market is just relentless at this point and while we bounced off the opening low, the rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday. There have been so many strange aspects of […]
January 20th Biotech Update
Not much new is going on at this point. The sector does not look good and one should think there is more downside but it is already stretched to the downside. The selling just seems relentless so far and at some point one has to ask where the marginal sellers are coming from. The generalists […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 10th Biotech Update
Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022. While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference. I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]
January 7th Biotech Update
We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today. If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week. Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]
January 5th Biotech Update
Well, the New Year started off so well but it feels a lot like last year. To be fair that is not completely surprising as simply changing the calendar does not alter the fundamentals of the sector. Yesterday (and the early morning today) feels like rotation in the belief that Omicron will not crash the […]
December 21st Biotech Update
The sector is really trying to confuse me. I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market. It seemed to me that they […]
Nov 18th Biotech Update
Today should be a good day. We were near the bottom end of the range where support should exist and the sector was oversold. As such, we were probably likely to bounce and today we got some M&A. While the deal was itself not a massive deal the timing works out for the sector to […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The sector has certainly strung a couple of good days together and it is probably in overbought territory as we approach the upper end of this long term range. The top of the range has been around the $137-$142 level and that seems like a pretty large ran for a top. Ideally we would want […]
November 3nd Biotech Update
The sector seems to be building some momentum (dare I say) but I guess it shows how low expectations were that two strong days in a row seems like such an accomplishment. We did get a drug price proposal in the bills in congress but it is a win for the sector. It allows […]
