March 4 Biotech Update

I am more confident in my recent speculation that we have been seeing short covering in the SMID and cash raising through the selling of large caps. ISI had a note this morning that noted something similar about the large caps where 4 of the 10 largest laggards in the S&P yesterday were biotech. He […]

January 22 Biotech Update

The market seems to be catching its footing but again if we are bottoming we are in the early stages and confirmation still needs to happen but I am cautiously optimistic that the selling pressure has eased (not really a brave statement to make this morning but given the start to the year you never […]

January 15 Biotech Update

I hope everyone enjoyed the move yesterday as it looks like it was only a quick respite to the relentless decline in 2016. Sentiment will eventually change but the hopes of a V shaped recovery are fading fast. If we can avoid making new lows, then there might be some positive to come out of […]

January 14 Biotech Update

So the sector has been struggling a little during JPM. I think many hoped (including me) that good news out of JPM would be a nice catalyst to flip sector sentiment but we essentially saw the opposite with all news (good and bad) being sold. At this point, it is clear that the selling has […]

January 7 Biotech Update

The year is off to an even worst start as all the secondaries are getting bad prices (to varying degrees of bad) and all are breaking those prices. China continues to collapse taking commodities with it as well as strengthening the dollar taking the markets with it. On the encouraging side, the technical analyst at […]

January 6 Biotech Update

The year is really off to a bad start and I am not sure what will reverse it. You have continued bad news with China, which is continuing the rout in commodities and strengthening the dollar killing emerging markets and it seems like the US market. Outside of some bright spots in the service sector, […]

December 11 Biotech Update

The sector remains mixed although there does not seem to be anything in the market to inspire a lot of confidence. We have macro coming with the likely first rate hike (I have no confidence in judging how the market would react to a rate hike or no hike event) and even within the sector […]

December 4 Biotech Update

It has been a bad week for the sector as we head into ASH. Perhaps this is setting up good run ups on positive data but usually weak tapes do not generate significant upside on positive catalysts. It seems that these moves are macro related (perhaps worry about interest rate hike), although we have had […]

November 11 Biotech Update

The market seems mixed and searching for direction. It seems hard to see a clear trend in the sector or within the sector. Some large caps are strong and others weak. Some SMID are strong and others weak. Perhaps this is the start of my “stock picking” thesis playing out but it could also simply […]

November 9 Biotech Update

My daughter made it through surgery with flying colors, so I have time for a quick note. I do not want to focus on individual companies but a broader theme that could be developing. Are we seeing the end of biotech leadership, why, and what does it mean? 1. Broadly speaking, I would argue that […]

November 4 Biotech Update

The sector certainly seems to be getting it legs back. The SMID are finally starting to get a bid (even if it is partly driven by short covering but it has to start somewhere). In addition, earnings have been good and now we are entering a period of both data catalysts and a seasonally positive […]

August 13 Biotech Update

We had our reversal yesterday that I talked about, although I had my doubts for a little while. That is probably enough to get some buying interest barring additional negative macro issues. China did a third round of devaluations but I suspect it will have less of an effect on the market given it is […]

August 11 Biotech Update

Not a lot of biotech news again but macro is creeping back into the discussion with China devaluing their currency. Who knows the pin action this will have on the sector as it could mean global growth is too slow and biotechs are then the best growers. It could mean that it will trigger more […]

December 5 Biotech Update

Another day and another morning with an opening spike in large cap biotechs that was immediately sold. This is a disturbing pattern and one that needs to break if the sector is going to continue to move higher. Until we can get follow through on these opening moves, we are going to at best treat […]