The sector is being the sector. It really seems to be coiling for a big move as the range has been pretty tight. I think the concern is that the broader market might be due for a pullback and given how poor the sector has been what is going to happen if the broader market […]
September 3rd Biotech Update
It seems clear to me that we have broken out of the range and have a nice little uptrend going on. We still have to have a pullback that resets the short term stochastics and allows us to put in a higher low (and then followed by a higher high). When that happens it will […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news and the sector is in a precarious spot. It had a chance to breakout and start to form a new bull trend but it failed. That failure does not mean a new bear trend but it did mean a test of the recent lows, which is where we are today. […]
June 24th Biotech Update
The sector is hot today and it is not precisely clear as to why. There has been some news that seems to be read as positive but this still looks to me like a sector that lacks a clear conviction. Usually you could see a day like this and then expect some positive momentum for […]
April 28th Biotech Update
It has been a rough start to earnings season. The sector has done pretty well considering, although it might highlight the need for large caps to do more deals as clearly they are not generating enough growth with their current pipelines and approved products. It is still early in earning seasons and it can still […]
April 7th Biotech Update
We remain mired in the middle with nothing really to signal the ultimate resolution of this situation. I would simply remain focused on the fundamentals of companies and simply be aware that the broader sector will at some point clarify the next move. I would be ready for a move higher or lower as I […]
March 15 Biotech Update
Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in. I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher. There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]
January 11th Biotech Update
Yikes, what a boring start to JPM. I thought last year was sort of slow news and no big events sort of JPM but this is even worse. There is nothing bad that has been announced but if we thought that JPM would spark some life into the sector with big news, then we are […]
November 5th Biotech Update
While we clearly do not have a clear winner from the election, it at least looks like the market has decided where the election is going. If there was uncertainty over the outcome, then the market would not have rallied and volatility would not have dropped. Given the pace of vote counting, it looks like […]
October 28th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week (or continuation of the week) as the market and sector continue to struggle. Given all of the potential news makers in the next couple weeks it is difficult to completely attribute the move solely to one factor. My mantra has been that the trend is your friend and […]
October 8th Biotech Update
We are setting a trend higher in the sector with higher highs and higher lows. What is actually interesting is that we are getting this new trend higher and have not had back to back green days since the middle of September. We have alternated red and green since mid-September and despite that back and […]
September 16 Biotech Update
The early week deals have set a nice rally in the sector which was expected. The positive is that we not only broke above the last lower high but also closed above it. As such, I think it is clear that we have broken the down trend and so the question now is whether we […]
July 30th Biotech Update
The sector certainly fells heavy. Nothing seems to take individual stocks higher and everything seems like a reason to sell. The whole market was basically higher yesterday outside the sector. In addition, we did not make a higher low breaking what was a positive trend higher. Despite all these issues, the $110 area on the […]
June 16th Biotech Update
Interesting market. It seemed clear that the sell off was COVID related as we saw the vaccine names as well as the PPE names outperform (and remain green) during the recent selling. In my mind that added some support to the idea that the support levels in the market might not hold. Yesterday we saw […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
May 11th Biotech Update
We were able to break above resistance last Friday but could not quite close above it and did not get the run on the breakout. This morning the sector is slightly weak as is the general market. It will be a real test of the sector as there is little news to drive it higher […]
April 23 Biotech (and MLP) Update
Good news for investors. Stocks have never been red when weekly jobless claims were over 3 million and with the 4+ million claims this week, we should be fine. Clearly we are in abnormal times but simply looking the at the price action and ignoring the broader economic fundamentals, the market is strong. That seems […]
February 10 Biotech Update
Last Monday we were following a weak end to the previous week and I expected that to continue early in the week but instead we had a pretty strong rally. Last Friday was another weak day and so one would expect follow through but given last Monday, perhaps not. I am still convinced that the […]
January 17 Biotech Update
I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]
January 16 Biotech Video Update
So today I did a chat on Twitch. If you go to the page there should be a video recording that you can watch. https://www.twitch.tv/chimeraresearch Rest assured quality will improve over time but I sort of like the ability to talk through the issues. Let me know if you have any questions or comments. I […]
