There is not a lot of news to start the week but this will be a bust week of news, so I will keep this short as we wait for the real news flow. 1. The biggest news so far is that the PRGO CEO is being replaced with the implication that old CEO is […]
April 14 Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being modestly better than it started but the sector still remains in a difficult spot. It was certainly positive to see some recovery and movements higher but I also think it would be hard to classify it as an outperformance. There is not a lot of news today, so I expect sentiment […]
March 28 Biotech Update
We start the week with some biotech news although not the M&A that many expect. I will be interested to see how MDVN trades given its takeover speculation at the end of last week. In any case, we got real news and for the most part it is positive, so the key now is for […]
March 16 Biotech Update
We are again at a decision point in the sector where it seems we are close to making another leg lower. My base case has been that there is not another major leg lower but VRX combined with the proposed Medicare part B changes have really hit the sector. We still may stave off another […]
January 28 Biotech Update
The market and sector did not like the FOMC decision or perhaps the wording of the decision. The sector remains in a precarious position. It has already fallen a lot but it remains at critical long term trend lines and if they break we could only be halfway through the decline. There was some talk […]
October 14 Biotech Update
I am not sure if the sector sold off yesterday as simply a normal short term move or whether there were real concerns about the democratic debate. I suspect a portion of the selling was likely related to the debate, which is silly as I have noted before politicians have moved on from the pricing […]
October 12 Biotech Update
Another start to the week and another week without the M&A that many think is needed to move the sector higher. I worry a little about that argument as one would like to see the sector move higher off of fundamentals and not adding more and more takeover premiums into stocks. That being said I […]
September 29 Biotech Update
I want to get out a quick note this morning as I am not sure I will have time for my usual Wednesday note and there has been some interesting news. The biggest issue remains the macro and the selloff in the sector. This is beyond weak hands and this is the liquidation of large […]
September 18 Biotech Update
The market supposedly got what it wanted (no hike) but looks like it wants to sell that news. As I said before the meeting, I have no confidence in terms of the next move of the market and if I were to explain the less than enthusiastic reaction, then I would lean towards a disappoint […]
September 16 Biotech Update
The market has done well recently but it is all meaningless for the most part until we get the Fed decision. To be honest, I do not know whether to root for a hike or no-hike. I can come up with what I think are reasonable cases for why the market would rally on either […]
August 20 Biotech Update
Another gap lower but the market remains in a rut refusing to breakdown or breakout. As I have said before, 2015 has been a year of churn and that is going to end up being really robust support for a breakout or really strong resistance for a breakdown. At this point, there is not a […]
August 19 Biotech Update
Not much has changed sector wide since I last wrote but we did have a trade play out, although not quite the way I expected. I want to talk about it today both because there have been some questions around it but also because it goes to the larger theme I think is at work […]
August 7 Biotech Update
I am not able to write for a couple of days and the market goes to crap, I figured you all would be able to keep down the fort better than that. As much as it seems like a beating (it is) I do not think we are seeing the bubble burst (of course, I […]
July 27 Biotech Update
The market looks bad and it is bringing down the sector although I think BIIB has done a pretty good job at reversing some bullish biotech sentiment. That being said the sector might be outperforming the broader market a little as there was a nice big deal announced this morning. When all is said and […]
July 23 Biotech Update
A good start to the day with earnings almost universally beats and raises. Given the strength the sector showed yesterday, this should move the group higher and increase expectations for those companies that have not yet reported but perhaps we are in an opposite mode and will sell good news and buy bad. 1. BMY […]
July 22 Biotech Update
The sector is a little weak this morning, which is to be expected but not nearly as weak as I thought it would be going into the open. There has been some negative news (or mixed depending on your view) and I figured this would weigh more heavily on the group. It is obviously still […]
July 7 Biotech Update
There is a little more news today but still relatively quiet. The market seems to be looking for a direction but the sector seems to be outperforming to the upside. Yesterday was certainly better than expected but it also did not end in an exceptionally bullish manner. That is why I still think the market […]
July 6 Biotech Update
A pretty quiet start to the week (at least in terms of bio news). Obviously we have all the Greek drama but despite fears of the worst, the opening was not too bad and stocks seem to be rallying with bios taking the lead. While it is way too early to read into the price […]
July 3 Biotech Update
This is the last note before the fourth and I wanted to spend time going into a new therapeutic space and highlight a new company (well, it is new to me but has already had a good run this year). I also wanted to wrap up the discussion from yesterday as the trading action is […]
June 12 Biotech Update
The market is not happy this morning and it is not immediately clear as to the “cause.” This is taking the sector down, especially some of the recent fliers. The summer is generally not a great time for the sector and we have had a lull in M&A, so it could be time for a […]
