April 17th Biotech Update

Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run.  It failed but today is certainly different.  The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level.  […]

April 12th Biotech Update

Well, it does look like we are still in this mini range.  The market could be in rally mode today with the CPI coming in cooler than expected.  While I am not convinced that the CPI looks that much cooler than expected (0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expectations), it seems to be enough for some significant […]

March 3rd Biotech Update

I am a little torn by the market and sector at this point.  Part of me sees the recent weakness and pullback as a natural consolidation and part of me sees it the start of the last major downside related to the rate hike cycle.  Expectations of rates have increased and I keep going back […]

January 18th Biotech Update

Not the best start to the week but to be honest, it is not surprising that we get some weakness as we were stretched to the top of the trading range.  I still would not rule out of break this week but the chart probably needed to reset the overbought conditions in the near term.  […]

December 14th Biotech Update

The market is doing OK with the CPI number.  You would have preferred not to have seen the fade but given the previous history with trading on CPI numbers, I still count this as a win.  It helps that the number was close to expectations and that it seems to have peaked.  In other words, […]

December 6th Biotech Update

The year seems to be winding down as we stay in this little range.  I am not convinced that this is a bad thing (as long as we end up breaking to the upside as this will be nice strong support).  I think the Fed and rates has faded to the background a little but […]

October 13th Biotech Update

We firmly remain in do not fight the Fed mode.  They have been quite clear and consistent that they will be focused on bringing down inflation through rate increases and that the job is not done.  I remain convinced that inflation has peaked and is rolling over in real time.  The problem is that in […]

March 18th Biotech Update

It has been quite the week for the sector.  We have been fooled before but I hesitate to say that this feels different.  There was bad news in terms of the interest rate increase as well as signaling for more.  There has not been really good company news this week and we still have a […]

January 10th Biotech Update

Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022.  While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference.  I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]

January 4th Biotech Update

Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]

November 29th Biotech Update

I think we are likely going to look back at Friday and see it as an Omicron overreaction given that it is still unclear if this mutation is more dangerous than delta or can outcompete delta as the dominant strain.  In addition, all the oral treatments that are on the way will still work against […]

September 9th Biotech Update

The low of yesterday got us into the $130 range on the XBI and this could be the place where the chart resets and we place that higher low.  There is nothing that can happen today to definitively put in that higher low (well, I guess if we get above $137 and set a higher […]

August 11th Biotech Update

Low key, I think the sector might be turning the corner.  I am not convinced and there is work to be done but the XBI looks like it could be setting up higher lows and, if we get above $130, higher highs.  I think at the very least the clear downtrend has become a lot […]

August 4th Biotech Update

I have to say yesterday was pretty disappointing.  We finally get some M&A and while it is not massive it is in a hot therapeutic modality and the sector trades lower.  One would have thought that would have been enough to at least get a little rally if not something more meaningful.  Perhaps it is […]

June 14th Biotech Update

Well, we do not have any buyouts but there is some partnership news.  I am not sure that will be enough to juice the sector but it is likely enough to continue the momentum to the $140/$141 level in the XBI.  Assuming we make it there, there should be some sort of pause/pullback to reset […]

April 16th Biotech Update

Today is modestly important not that we are going to break above an important range or below one but continued momentum higher is sort of key.  We have had a good week so do far but if we stall at these levels it really looks like a clear trend line lower where yesterday has the […]

March 11th Biotech (and Energy) Update

I think we are clearly in what sort of looks like a bottoming process but one that seems like it will be quite messy.  The sector continues to be unable to generate consistently strong days but at least yesterday ended up not being a disaster.  While continuation would have been great, it did not breakdown […]

January 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was interesting and today it seems to have settled down a little.  As I noted all week this was going to cause some volatility in the market and it has.  I am still not sure if the supposed rise of reddit finance (so to speak) changes the market in any way.  It could very […]

December 29th Biotech Update

So this is generally a seasonally good time of the year and the broader market is showing that but the biotech sector is now a noticeable laggard.  All time highs are being printed and the sector is deep in the red.  Is this a major signal?  Perhaps but I also can easily argue that this […]