It was not a great end of the week for the sector. Trading has not been good and earnings were fine but not exciting. As much as the sector has bounced from its recent lows, it still does not feel like sentiment has changed dramatically. It as an odd dynamic that I will talk about […]
Dave-Trading – April Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No positionPreview 2-3 […]
April 13 Biotech Update
It has been a strange sort of trading. The sector did well last week but has been underperforming for a couple days now. Ideally this is simply back testing the move from the AGN/PFE breakup but we clearly need to turn it around soon. We seem to be stuck in the sell every rally environment […]
April 11 Biotech Update
I do not think the week is starting with the news everybody wants, i.e. buyouts, but I do think we are getting closer to that point. The sector has been searching for direction at the end of last week but it had a nice run after the AGN/PFE break, so a pause is not unexpected. […]
April 7 Biotech Update
I think we can have more confidence that the bottom is in for the sector, although I am still of the belief that it will be volatile and the sector will still not be the leader of the market going forward. There certainly may be quarters of outperformance but not to the same frequency and […]
April 6 Biotech Update
The news is obviously the failed AGN and PFE deal, so I will focus on why the deal fell through and what it means for the companies and sector. I obviously underestimated both the desire and ability of treasury to kill this deal but it is now about dealing with the news and how to […]
April 4 Biotech Update
It is a pretty quiet start to the week (again) but a little less so than previous weeks. At least we have a GILD deal to think about, although not the one everyone was expecting (hoping for). While I certainly would like to see the sector rocket higher, there is something to be said for […]
April 1 Biotech Update
Yesterday was generally a good day for the sector but it is hard to feel particularly good about it. We certainly need more time to see if this is another rally that leads to additionally dumping of positions. We have been waiting for catalysts that would turn the sector but that is probably a false […]
March 24 Biotech Update
The week has not been ending how it started and this is always the risk with short covering rallies. Without real long term buyers, they are going to be susceptible to large swings. SMID biotechs that were up nicely from the lows are suddenly down 10%+ on a day on no news. While this is […]
March 22 Biotech Update
It looks like the sector did not fall off a cliff and perhaps has been finding some support. We still have the recurring question of whether this is real buying or simply short covering. As has been the case, I fall in the camp that this is short covering at least among the smaller caps. […]
March 17 Biotech Update
You are missing a lot of private interaction we are mostly using the private feed @CRGTrades to do so, the best way to be updated is to follow us through this link, please fill in all the info needed for easy confirmation! https://www.chimeraresearchgroup.com/twitter-page/ Well, I do not think we really learned anything new yesterday in […]
March 16 Biotech Update
We are again at a decision point in the sector where it seems we are close to making another leg lower. My base case has been that there is not another major leg lower but VRX combined with the proposed Medicare part B changes have really hit the sector. We still may stave off another […]
March 11 Biotech Update
The blast from the past continues as the market and sector continue to weaken. As cheap as large cap biotechs look it is hard to see a stock like CELG break below what was a trading range and not think it will re-test the previous lows in the lower $90s. While the market today started […]
March 9 Biotech Update
Yesterday was certainly a blast from the past with small caps getting crushed and large caps outperforming but only because they are down less than SMID. After the recent run it is not surprising that the run pauses and reverses at resistance. As one could imagine the bears will highlight this as the start of […]
March 7 Biotech Update
I hope everyone had a good weekend. We are off to a rather slow start with not a lot of meaningful news (again). We have a more positive sentiment background and likely the continued short covering rally, so that might be enough to move the sector higher. The trend that I want to watch this […]
March 2 Biotech Update
The market has a good rally off of the lows yesterday and despite still feeling concerned about the market it has actually had a nice rally in the second half of February. The problem is that two weeks of good price action is not nearly enough to get rid of the damage especially in the […]
February 29 Biotech Update
I would have expected more action to start the week but it has been pretty quiet. It looks like we are left to the sentiment tides once again as there is nothing I see on the news front that can make a dent in either direction. As such, I will spend today mainly talking about […]
February 22 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week as the markets open green and everything seems to be heading higher. One could argue that the trend of selling the rallies has broken but I still think we need to decisively put in a higher low and higher high before we can get any confidence in […]
Dave-Trading – PFE
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)–NYSE *** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** Options are unfairly seen as risky, and many value investors avoid options out of fear. David Sobek appears to be […]
February 5 Biotech Update
The sector did OK during the pricing hearing but it was more of a mixed bag than across the board out- or under-performance. Today everything is down, so it is hard to see if there is any other effect from the hearing or the debate last night. We are still in a macro driven market […]
