It has been a really good week. If you look at the chart, one could make a compelling case that we are breaking out of that range. I would not have predicted this was the week in which that would happen but it looks good. If I were writing the ideal script we would extend […]
June 28th Biotech Update
Not a bad week nor a great week for the sector. It would have been nice to see the sector set a new high but we did get a nice bounce from support. The XBI is going to be interesting to follow going forward because they have changed the composition to have more large caps. […]
June 10th Biotech Update
Keeping on the theme of griding we continue to work through the ASCO and other data. The sector is still going to be linked to rates and the Fed but given that we are not in a place for rates to go down, we are looking likely to grind away at these levels. I thought […]
May 28th Biotech Update
There was not a lot of interest in the sector in front of a long weekend. That is somewhat interesting as usually a long weekend sparks dreams of potential deals being finished. While M&A has been fine this year, there does not seem to be the level of excitement or interest that we have seen […]
May 13th Biotech Update
While my idea that steady rates would provide some room for the sector to recover and potentially move higher is not quite working out. Steady rates are not bad for the sector but I still think there are worries about the rate environment and perhaps we need to see a little more confidence that inflation […]
May 10th Biotech Update
Not the best of weeks but also not the worst of weeks. It would have been ideal to get some momentum to the upside but grinding volume at this level is not awful for the longer term. Of course, if the next move is significantly lower then this ends up being a level of resistance […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day). This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]
May 1st Biotech Update
I would not say that we got momentum but trading in line with the market (if not a little better in parts) is not the worst scenario. I will continue to be a broken record with my call on rates and that once they stabilize they sector will finally start to trade more on fundamentals […]
March 25th Biotech Update
While the sector certainly seems to be holding up around support, this does not feel like a good place for the sector. The market and tech sectors are at highs and we are struggling to bounce off of what should be pretty strong levels of support. The small caps are not doing as well as […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
I guess we are not done with rates quite yet. We do seem to be a little sensitive (at least more so than I would have thought). Fed day was not great but as rates fell, the sector did better. I think we are all done with being so tightly correlated with interest rates but […]
January 17th Biotech Update
A little bit of expected weakness to start the week. I am not sure how much of a pullback is coming but I still think we are due for one. As I noted yesterday, it is perfectly consistent with previous patterns and this weakness could be more than just a couple of days but weeks […]
December 1st Biotech Update
We the news that we needed to really push the sector higher with a large oncology deal. Now the move is good to see and certainly adds some nice momentum to the sector but ideally we would want that to last a couple of days. One day spike higher and then giving it back over […]
November 20th Biotech Update
It was a good end to the week and let us see how we start. I do not know how to really read the moves this week as I suspect it is going to be pretty slow on the news and the volume front. This morning is probably pretty indicative as to what we would […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector. It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher. I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]
October 20th Biotech Update
When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal. That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green. Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]
October 18th Biotech Update
I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad. There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce. I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]
October 10th Biotech Update
Not an awful start to the week all things considered. I still worry that this is simply reset the chart for the next move lower but I still definitely prefer being wrong on that ultimate move and that we find a way put in a bottom at this level. In order to have any confidence […]
October 2nd Biotech Update
Not a great end to the week but we are finally done with September. Everyone seemed to think that September was going to be a seasonally weak month (it certainly was true) and that we have the potential for a stronger end to the year. Of course, how much is that strength going to matter […]
September 29th Biotech Update
We ended down yesterday but I actually find the trading encouraging. There was a big move down early in the day and we spent the rest of the trading day grinding higher. We still ended lower but we had one hour of selling and the rest of the day was buying. If we can continue […]
September 22nd, Biotech Update
I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it. This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62. The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]
