February 2nd Biotech Update

I guess we are not done with rates quite yet.  We do seem to be a little sensitive (at least more so than I would have thought).  Fed day was not great but as rates fell, the sector did better.  I think we are all done with being so tightly correlated with interest rates but […]

January 17th Biotech Update

A little bit of expected weakness to start the week.  I am not sure how much of a pullback is coming but I still think we are due for one.  As I noted yesterday, it is perfectly consistent with previous patterns and this weakness could be more than just a couple of days but weeks […]

December 1st Biotech Update

We the news that we needed to really push the sector higher with a large oncology deal.  Now the move is good to see and certainly adds some nice momentum to the sector but ideally we would want that to last a couple of days.  One day spike higher and then giving it back over […]

November 20th Biotech Update

It was a good end to the week and let us see how we start.  I do not know how to really read the moves this week as I suspect it is going to be pretty slow on the news and the volume front.  This morning is probably pretty indicative as to what we would […]

October 23rd Biotech Update

The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector.  It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher.  I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]

October 20th Biotech Update

When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal.  That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green.  Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]

October 18th Biotech Update

I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad.  There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce.  I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]

October 10th Biotech Update

Not an awful start to the week all things considered.  I still worry that this is simply reset the chart for the next move lower but I still definitely prefer being wrong on that ultimate move and that we find a way put in a bottom at this level.  In order to have any confidence […]

October 2nd Biotech Update

Not a great end to the week but we are finally done with September.  Everyone seemed to think that September was going to be a seasonally weak month (it certainly was true) and that we have the potential for a stronger end to the year.  Of course, how much is that strength going to matter […]

September 29th Biotech Update

We ended down yesterday but I actually find the trading encouraging.  There was a big move down early in the day and we spent the rest of the trading day grinding higher.  We still ended lower but we had one hour of selling and the rest of the day was buying.  If we can continue […]

September 22nd, Biotech Update

I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it.  This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62.   The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]

September 19th Biotech Update

The sector is not looking that great.  We are at the level that could have been the support for a range bound market but we are marginally below it.  It makes me think that we are heading down to the $72.5 area but the move has been more or less straight down and so are […]

September 18th Biotech Update

So we stopped the clear downtrend when we made the move to $81 but all that did was stop us from having a lower high (we basically made it to the previous high of the downtrend).  I think it is pretty clear that we are not able to start an uptrend and we are going […]

September 11th Biotech Update

Not a ton has changed.  We are setting up the potential to establish a higher low but that probably needs to be done this week and I still think there is a potential to revisit the lows as opposed to stay well above them.  As I noted last week, I sort of lean towards more […]

July 18th Biotech Update

So far so good this week.  We definitely need to continue the strength.  I would have ideally preferred to finish closer to the highs but a nice strong green to start the week is good.  We are above the $85 level and not messing around this level and moving higher adds to the initial strength. […]

July 17th Biotech Update

Last week was a weird week.  It looked good but there was one strong day and a lot of days that could not build on it.  To be fair, those days did not look bad as the sector held up to some selling pressure as well but I would not look at them as positive […]

July 11th Biotech Update

It was a very nice start to the week, but I sort of feel like we are in a strange spot.  I am not convinced that the sector is now clear of breaking down.  I can easily see a couple days of weakness that puts us under the lows of yesterday.  I can also see […]

June 27th Biotech Update

This is it.  We either bounce from these levels or we are setup for a much larger selloff as we set a lower low.  I strongly suspect that we rally as we have basically gone straight down.  Even if this level ultimately fails in the next week or so, I think the selling has been […]

June 26th Biotech Update

We are running out of chances. We desperately need to find a higher low and cannot fall below $82.5 area as that would look like a lower low.  On the positive, we are looking oversold after last week and so I think it would be difficult to continue the selloff and break below that level […]

June 21st Biotech Update

The trading did not start well but it ended up fine.  That is quite important.  We are at an area that should act as support (at least somewhere around these levels) and so not falling any further is not more important that moving higher, but it certainly is up there.  It was good that we […]