July 15th Biotech Update

I think it is clear now that it was COVID that worried the market earlier this week.  The reaction to the vaccine news has been pretty clear and positive.  While it is possible that the market would have had a similar reaction if the selloff was China driven, it seems more likely that worries about […]

July 13th Biotech Update

It seems as if the news is really starting to dry up as we get closer to earnings seasons (plus the usual summer doldrums is probably also having an effect).  I expected at least some news to start the week but there really is not much which likely means the sector will follow any macro […]

July 1st Biotech Update

The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point.  We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side.  At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher.  […]

June 24th Biotech Update

Clearly we have a breakout in the sector.  The next phase will be the retest of the breakout and the old resistance should act as new support.  How far do we run until the retest?  I would think that we are probably closer to the start of that retest than continued moves higher but we […]

June 16th Biotech Update

Interesting market.  It seemed clear that the sell off was COVID related as we saw the vaccine names as well as the PPE names outperform (and remain green) during the recent selling.  In my mind that added some support to the idea that the support levels in the market might not hold.  Yesterday we saw […]

June 11th Biotech Update

Still not a lot to talk about but the market is starting to feel heavy.  That being said we remain rangebound in the sector.  Sure we are getting these swings and significant red days but we still are basically trading sideways.  This is not true for the broader market that seems more like a top […]

June 2 Biotech Update

The market held up well yesterday and so far this morning.  Perhaps I am alone in finding this an odd strength given all the issues and it leads to the question of who is buying the market at these level and fundamental context?  Long term value investors?  Unlikely as we know Buffet is not buying.  […]

June 1st Biotech Update

With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat.  Riots.  COVID.  China tensions.  Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient.  Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

May 15th Biotech Update

It seems a fight/indecision in the sector right now.  It remains right at the breakout level unable to move higher to confirm the breakout or move lower to reinforce the level as resistance.  It still seems to be doing modestly better than the broader markets but there seems clear indecision at this level and at […]

April 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking).  Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher.  The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB.  The IBB had made new […]

April 13th Biotech Update

A mixed start to the week, which seems fitting given the technical analysis that Joe published last night. I highly recommend that you read it as it lays out the next move in the market and I agree that we seem to be at a decision point.  Perhaps we do not get the decision this […]

January 28 Biotech Update

The sector bounced right where you would expect, which is a positive sign. I am still not convinced that it is setting up well for the near term but you have to respect that it bounced right where support should have existed. This actually sets up for some clarity going forward. If those lows are […]

October 30 Biotech Update

The price action has not been great the past couple of days despite continued positive fundamentals. This could simply be a consolidation of the recent move higher and setting up a higher low for the sector. I would lean towards the sector setting up a higher low at this point as the macro is fine […]

October 7 Biotech Update

Not a lot of news to start the week. Some interesting odds and ends but nothing to really be a sector mover, so I suspect it continues with the trend that it ended last week. We had a nice little bounce late last week and it could become more meaningful if we get a continuation […]

September 24 Biotech Update

News remains slow but the macro remains in the background. There is a chance that China trade tensions ease (only before rising again) and Iran is fading into the memory (but this is not over yet). Unfortunately, the market is rallying a little but the sector seems stuck in the mud. It is a little […]

August 12th Biotech Update

Another week with another set of macro concerns. I was waiting to see if there would be any interesting biotech news but I guess not. There was some late last week but this morning seems driven by macro (your choice between Argentina and/or Hong Kong and/or China trade). I see little on the horizon that […]

August 6 Biotech Update

We tried to get a bounce this morning but it is tepid at best. On the positive side we did get a CNBC “Market in Turmoil” segment, which usually marks a bottom. On the negative, the move has been so fast it does not seem like panic or despair has had time to set into […]

July 30 Biotech Update

Tell me if you heard this before. Good news in the sector that moves individual stocks and yet little effect on the broader sector. We have yet another day with good news (clinical and earnings) and yet the sector is barely green. Granted the broader market is red but this has become a trend. I […]

July 29th Biotech Update

We sort of have another merger Monday but again not what SMID investors were hoping for and another one that might have limited read through to the broader sector. That being said I am a little surprised to see such a negative reaction in the sector, although it could also be a function of more […]