Are we finally getting some love in the sector? The market and sector were very oversold and we were due for a bounce in both. We seem to be getting some nice momentum in both (and I would add cryptocurrency which adds to my belief that it really might be a proxy now for risk […]
May 24th Biotech Update
It was a good start to the week but the yo-yo continues. I think if the broader market was not weak that the sector would be forming an uptrend. For the first time in a long time it feels like the sector wants to outperform the broader market. Our issue is that the broader market […]
May 10th Biotech Update
This should be it. The sector has been oversold and very stretched to the downside and was due for a bounce. Today we finally see some significant M&A and this should trigger a nice multi-day rally. If this deal cannot move the sector in a meaningful way when it is oversold then I do not […]
April 29th Biotech Update
We remain stuck in that I think the sector is gong to move with the broader market and the broader market is not good at this point. I would think both the sector and broader market were oversold in the short term and due for at least a dead cat bounce and yesterday looked to […]
April 13th Biotech Update
We had a chance to build some nice momentum and yet we failed once again. To be fair the broader markets have not been that conducive so it is not as if this is a sector specific move but it is yet another disappointment in a long line of disappointments. The sector can still save […]
April 8th Biotech Update
While it looked like today was going to be a flat week of consolidation, the last couple of days have been a disappointment and this is more of a pullback sort of week. Pullbacks are not bad per se as long as it stays above support and I think if we stay above $90 and […]
March 17th Biotech Update
The stalemate in Ukraine likely remains good for the market. I am not convinced that the stalemate can last for months but it is more likely a week or two hiatus. As long as it looks like escalation is not happening or at risk of happening then the market looks the other way. Of course, […]
March 14th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Not much has changed in the Ukraine. This is probably a positive for the market but this stalemate cannot last indefinitely. If the Ukrainians are successfully hitting the Russian supply lines (as it appears) then the Russian forces will soon (another week or so) have very little supplies left that they will be unable to […]
February 10th Biotech Update
The sector had been doing well but the inflation data this morning was worse than expected both year on year and month on month. This increases rate increase expectations and higher rates has been lowering the sector. At some point, however, one has to think that rate increases would be priced into the market. How […]
January 19th Biotech Update
Do you have whiplash yet? Yesterday was and I fully expected a bloodbath to open the market today and I was thinking that could setup a nice tradable low (the old gap lower to really push an extremely oversold market to ludicrously oversold) but opening a little higher today makes it less clear. I am […]
January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update
The sector cannot help itself and stress investors. We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside. My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise). Given the lack of really positive news or […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]
September 22nd Biotech Update
With all the drama in the markets this week, I have to say that looking at the sector there does not seem to be a ton of damage done to the chart. It looks like we have create a little downtrend in September but a breakout of that mini-downtrend could trigger a run to higher […]
August 27th Biotech Update
Still not a lot of news in the sector. The XBI basically pushed up to the upper end of the range and is now pausing/retracing. The question is what happens after the pause? Is it a pause that refreshes and allows for a breakout or is it the start of the retracement to the lower […]
August 13th Biotech Update
Today could be a day of decision in terms of the sector (and some stocks). The XBI seems to have a little pennant forming and it would be nice to see a breakout over the $130 level where that should lead to a continuation next week. Of course, there is still some room for indecision […]
July 30th Biotech Update
Unfortunately we were unable to string together some momentum for the sector. It could have be worse but ideally we would have built on some of our earlier strength this week as opposed to bounce around with some weakness mixed with the strength. It is not surprising given the downtrend we have established but there […]
May 17th Biotech Update
Guess what no deals in the sector. We have a big deal outside of biotech but noting much going on in biotech. I still think this reverses at some point as these companies still need to boost their pipelines and bankers need deals to get their bonuses. Of course, it is possible that the dearth […]
March 31st Biotech Update
We are in an interesting spot. Yesterday started bad but we reversed higher and that continued today. It feels better with this bounce having a nice follow through. What is interesting is that we made a lower low despite the reversal., so in reality we seem to have established a downtrend even though we had […]
February 12th Biotech Update
The sector certainly seems in pullpack mode. There is nothing to think that the broader trend higher is broken but obviously that is something we want to keep an eye on. There will be a broader and more significant move lower but global equities saw the largest inflow of funds ever last week. There is […]
February 11th Biotech Update
I guess it is escalator up and elevator down sort of market. It was a little strange to see the drop midday on what I could not see as any news. Obviously most see the market as extended and overvalued and do not want to be the last one holding when the correction occurs. I […]
