Quite the start to the week and it would be quite disappointing if all the news does not get at least a snap back rally in the sector but there are a lot of moving parts. We have both major macro news as well as sector (and portfolio) news and I will cover them on […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
January 17th Biotech Update
Is this the moment of truth for the sector? Do we finally break out of the range and do so to the upside? We are at the upper end of the range with some good momentum and so this is probably the best chance we have had in awhile. To be clear I am not […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 1st Biotech Update
Not surprised by the positive day given the news. Positive clinical data. M&A interests. Add in seasonality and it was a nice constellation of events. I wonder what happens later in the month as we get closer to tax loss selling. This is a sector that certainly has its share of tax loss selling potential […]
October 17th Biotech Update
Another week and another set of worries but the macro environment is about the same. We have the Fed and interest rates (and tied into that are the inflation numbers and potential recession caused by the rising rates). We also have the international political risks and this includes the war in Ukraine and do not […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Well, that was not a great day. Interest rates and risk off are not kind to the sector. As long as we can hold support I think we will be fine. I am not convinced that this is going to be a large and sustained sell off as opposed to a quick adjustment. I get […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 8th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and it should continue the momentum for the sector. While I think we still can move on the news, it is also the case that the sector has had a nice run recently. Nothing goes up (or down forever) and the longer the run, the better the news has […]
July 21st Biotech Update
A slow week but a good week for the sector. We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector. They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]
July 14th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing ok as we inch closer to earnings season. It will be interesting to see how the sector moves on earnings as there is nothing that should really surprise anyone. There are still some issues outside the companies that could impact trading. There is some drug pricing reforms being discussed […]
July 12th Biotech Update
No real news to start the week the juice the sector and so far we have simply followed the broader market lower. This could/should be the pullback that refreshes as we have had a nice run higher and a pullback to the $78 level makes sense. Of course that needs to hold and we need […]
July 8th Biotech Update
I am not sure if we end up green today or not but I think we are finally in a decent position for the sector. There is a virtuous position where a sector has outperformed but investor are underweighted it and so they are underperforming the market. They need to get into the sector to […]
July 7th Biotech Update
Are we going to get the deal? It looks like it and it looks like the sector is responding well. To be fair the sector was already doing well before the report, so this looks like a continuation of that move. I think it is relatively safe to say that the sector finally has created […]
July 5th Biotech Update
Not the ideal return from vacation for me or the end of a holiday extended weekend for everyone else. It would have been really nice to have started this week with a buyout but there really is not a ton of news to start the week. Ideally we can reverse this early weakness and build […]
June 21st Biotech Update
Are we finally getting some love in the sector? The market and sector were very oversold and we were due for a bounce in both. We seem to be getting some nice momentum in both (and I would add cryptocurrency which adds to my belief that it really might be a proxy now for risk […]
May 24th Biotech Update
It was a good start to the week but the yo-yo continues. I think if the broader market was not weak that the sector would be forming an uptrend. For the first time in a long time it feels like the sector wants to outperform the broader market. Our issue is that the broader market […]
May 10th Biotech Update
This should be it. The sector has been oversold and very stretched to the downside and was due for a bounce. Today we finally see some significant M&A and this should trigger a nice multi-day rally. If this deal cannot move the sector in a meaningful way when it is oversold then I do not […]
