December 12th Biotech Update

I think we are clearly in the range given the news flow and the market reaction.  It is not necessarily bad but I think one has to play the range until shown otherwise.  This has been a pretty long time in the range and so the break out (up or down) should be pretty clear […]

November 8th Biotech Update

We remain range bound with some weakness to end last week and some indecision to start this week.  I still think we make a move to the upper end of this range at some point and I do not think the first attempt to breakout will be successful.  It is possible but my running assumption […]

September 5 Biotech Update

The hurricane thankfully missed us, so back in the office. The sector had a rough day yesterday but it only took us to the area that should act as new support. A quick dip under 120 or so would not be bad but it has to be quick. Honestly, we have already tested the support […]

September 4 Biotech Update

Another slow start to the week. Sometimes there are expectations for deals after long weekends but the sector continues to disappoint in terms of M&A. Given how important M&A was to many sector theses at the start of the year (and that includes me), it is impressive to see the performance. Explaining the performance is […]

August 30th Biotech Update

The range finally seems broken and pretty decisively to the upside. The sector is not just moving higher but it is outperforming the broader market on a relative basis. Given the strength of the move and the overbought conditions across the market, I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the near term. […]

August 22nd Biotech Update

Still not a ton of news and the sector moved higher with the market taking it a little further from the edge but still well within its range. I am still watching to see how the relatively performance in the sector plays out in that will we see large pharma continue to outperform followed by […]

February 22 Biotech Update

A little pick up in the news flow but clearly the sector has been tied to the broader market in the immediate term. The spike in interest rates caused by the Fed minutes took the market and the sector down. While the direct impact of raising interest rates on the sector is minimal, it does […]

February 7 Biotech Update

So it looks like we are going to be tied to the broader market for a little while. We are still in the middle of earnings (although most large caps have reported) but it seems unlikely that anything meaningful will be coming out in the near term that would drive meaningful relatively under or over […]

September 11 Biotech Update

Macro seems to be slowly fading into the background but note that I said slowly as it will likely take more time and it should remain meaningful in the short term. Of course, fading into the background does not mean all is clear for the next move higher as I read the market as simply […]

June 16 Biotech Update

The market is quite resilient. While we did not get a full reversal yesterday, the market came back and biotechs seemed to outperform. This morning is off to a good start as the late day move is getting some follow through (but was quickly squashed as we seem once again bound in a range). Of […]

June 15 Biotech Update

It is a macro world and we are just living in it. Sunday night we should have known this was going to be a bad start to the week with the two themes being Greece and the biotech bubble. Both themes are pretty trite but they are both negative headline risks. Outside of the headline […]

April 27 Biotech Update

The sector has to deal with both some negative headlines and the lack of any deals on Merger Monday but it is difficult to read too much into the action this morning as we are going to get a lot of earnings this week. So I would wait and see how we are at the […]

February 6 Biotech Update

Well, I can honestly say that on Wednesday I did not think the sector would be looking this good on Friday. The economy seems to be improving, the macro (outside of the Greek noise) seems benign, and the sector seems to be shrugging off the hep-C discounts. I am a little surprised but you also […]

January 26 Biotech Update

It has been a mixed start to the week both in terms of the macro background and also stocks within the sector. It seems like both are looking for new leadership (to the upside or downside) and I still lean towards the next move being higher but it remains a low conviction view. On the […]

October 23 Bioech Update

The rebound is continuing with large caps continuing to lead but with good participation with the small caps, which is nice to see. It really is a little amazing to see how many V-shaped moves this market makes and how little memory it has day to day. In any case, I still think the path […]

September 8 Biotech Update

A slow start to a week, which I guess should have been expected given that last week was not exceptionally news filled. Without any real catalysts, it is likely the sector will track the broader market. The one advantage is that we have a series of investor conferences in September. While these usually do not […]

July 1 Biotech Update

It was a good morning in the sector with some positive news and momentum, although we seemed to have faded a little. As I have been saying for awhile, I think the sector has a good shot to hit new all-time highs as long as the macro environment does not turn bearish. I do not […]

March 6 Biotech Update- Oh the Humanity

It is Thursday again and as usual I do not have much time to write anything in depth. In general, the broad market looked good but the sector seemed pretty heavy. I cannot shake the feeling that the sector is starting to turn in that the runs higher seem further apart and the intraday dips […]