Are we at the pullbacks that refresh stage? The past couple of days have not been great but we are still hanging out at the top end of the range. This bouncing around at these levels is resetting any overbought conditions and makes a breakout more likely to cause a run as opposed to being […]
December 21st Biotech Update
Not the best day for the sector as trading slows down closer to the holidays. I had been thinking we pullback further but even a 1% decline basically keeps us in this sideways range and then the afternoon happened. It was not clear why the market suddenly decided to correct through price, but I was […]
September 27th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a better day. The market was weak and yet the sector outperformed. That is quite the rare occasion. It had been such a brutal month, there was bound to be a day in which the selling eased. There was some news that could have driven the outperformance but was that simply an excuse […]
September 7th Biotech Update
I do not think things are as dire as they may feel in the sector. Obviously, if the broader markets weaken (and this is traditionally a weak month), then the sector will not be able to withstand it. If you squint your eyes just right, we have actually moved higher than the previous lower high […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Well, the lower low seems to have been put into place as the sector is acting pretty heavy, which is no surprising given that the broader market appears weak as well. I think we end up get to the 52-week low area for the sector (around 72 on the XBI) before we likely get real […]
August 15th Biotech Update
The sector is not doing great nor is it really breaking down. We are perhaps in the post earnings, late summer malaise that drifts. Of course, that does not mean that we cannot have significant movements or price action in particular names but I suspect that we are going to be slow on the trading […]
July 25th Biotech Update
The sector has me worried a little as it is holding up but cannot follow the market higher. There has been real strength in the broader market but the sector has barely been able to eke out anything. What happens when we get a broader market correction? In some ways, the sector is perhaps next […]
May 5th Biotech Update
I think this week has been pretty good for the sector. Ideally we can keep it going with a nice strong close. Given the number of merger Mondays we have had recently, there should be an underling bid into the weekend but who knows what the macro is going to do to the market with […]
March 17th Biotech Update
Volatility continues as questions around banks both at home and abroad remain. The actions to support a number of banks has also been met with a lukewarm response. There were initially a positive reaction but that has seen tapered off as questions remain both on the individual banks, the banking system, the economy, and the […]
January 18th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week but to be honest, it is not surprising that we get some weakness as we were stretched to the top of the trading range. I still would not rule out of break this week but the chart probably needed to reset the overbought conditions in the near term. […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Prediction reviews)
We end the year hopefully on an up note but nothing has really changed about the sector. We are range bound and a drifting in the range. The length of time spent in this range really makes it into really strong support or resistance for the move. It makes me think that when we do […]
November 3rd Biotech Update
Guess what? The Fed speaks and the market declines (along with the sector). As I said the earnings season has been quite good for the sector but as I have also said one should not try and fight the Fed. As long as the perception is higher rates for longer, then I do not see […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
May 24th Biotech Update
It was a good start to the week but the yo-yo continues. I think if the broader market was not weak that the sector would be forming an uptrend. For the first time in a long time it feels like the sector wants to outperform the broader market. Our issue is that the broader market […]
March 9 Biotech (and Energy) Update
Has the market adjusted to the conflict in the Ukraine? Commodities are cooling off, VIX is going down and risk assets (and the market) are going higher. As I noted, I think the market decline has passed if the conflict does not expand or escalate. The situation has been simmering at the current levels for […]
January 18th Biotech Update
So it looked really bad last Friday and it was quite the comeback rally. Unfortunately it seems like the broader market is not looking very good and I cannot imagine a scenario with a broader market/risk off move and the sector somehow moves higher. I guess one can never say never but it seems exceptionally […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
November 3nd Biotech Update
The sector seems to be building some momentum (dare I say) but I guess it shows how low expectations were that two strong days in a row seems like such an accomplishment. We did get a drug price proposal in the bills in congress but it is a win for the sector. It allows […]
October 18th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week both in terms of news and trading. I think they are linked in that we had a series of bad news and that is impacting the sector. I do not think any of the news runs the risk of forcing a downside break but certainly it was not […]
