Unfortunately, not much has changed since I noted that the sector is back in the interest rate slump. We were negative for the year and that was completely predicable once the interest rate specter raised its head once again. There is no chance that we get a sustained rally as long as we are in […]
December 11th Biotech Update
The sector has had a great run. Positive news and increasing confidence that rates have topped were a nice combination. I do think there is likely going to be a short-term pause to the move higher as the sector looks a bit overbought. I would not be stunned to see a pullback to the $73-$75 […]
November 16th Biotech Update
It looks like we are breaking above the recent high and are setting up the potential of an actual uptrend. I would be cautious as we have been disappointed before, but this is about as good the sector has looked in a while. The gap between the sector performance and the broader market is very […]
November 9th Biotech Update
Is this a week of consolidation or the new high to be followed by a lower low? We have broken the clear trend lower that had been operating for the past 6 months but only marginally so. One could look at the chart and still see a basic downtrend as we made our way to […]
September 7th Biotech Update
I do not think things are as dire as they may feel in the sector. Obviously, if the broader markets weaken (and this is traditionally a weak month), then the sector will not be able to withstand it. If you squint your eyes just right, we have actually moved higher than the previous lower high […]
August 11th Biotech Update
Have we hit a bottom? There seems to have been a clear bounce from a level that looks like it could be support but there also seems to be a clear downtrend with lower lows and lower highs. So this little bounce is good but it needs to get above $85 before we can relax […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
Incremental. That would be the word I use to describe the action in the sector outside of the big down day earlier in the week. I do not read this as necessarily bad as there has been ample opportunity to accelerate the move lower given we are hanging out at these levels but that follow […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
Certainly, a good start to the week. We basically got to the upper end of a range around $83 and I would not be surprised to see that act as a little bit of resistance, although if we are in a bull market it should not last too long. I would like to see us […]
April 27th Biotech Update
Are we breaking down? It has certainly not been a good couple of days but even though we are under the $80 level on the XBI, it looks like we are still at the bottom of a range. This is certainly a precarious position and not one where I think we want to linger. There […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
A nice little continuation and it is nice to see the XBI above $75 but there is a lot of work to do. To put it in perspective, the 50 day MA is $82.43 and the 200 day MA is $82.22. On the positive, even after the nice little run the RSI is still under […]
February 8th Biotech Update
It remains a slow week in terms of news and the sector has pulled back a little. Given the Fed talk the other day, I can live with the little pullback and if take a larger view then yesterday could be another higher low. Obviously we need to stay above it moving forward but there […]
January 17th Biotech Update
Is this the moment of truth for the sector? Do we finally break out of the range and do so to the upside? We are at the upper end of the range with some good momentum and so this is probably the best chance we have had in awhile. To be clear I am not […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
October 28th Biotech Update
We were hitting the upper end of the range and so it is not completely surprising that we were a little weak. The tech earnings have not been great and that could hit the broader market, which would not great for the sector. That being said, The sector has been holding its own and the […]
May 9th Biotech Update
The sector continues to be a complete mess along with the broader market. We are at multi-year lows and this move lower has been relentless. I am sounding like a broken record but this has to see a dead cat bounce at some point. Of course, the one thing the sector has not done is […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
The sector and market continue to do poorly. We are getting close to at least a short term bottom as the move lower has been pretty quick and relentless. Obviously the pattern is for these to be pauses before another move lower but the first thing we need is to at least stop the bleeding. […]
April 7th Biotech Update
It has been an up and down week and while some of the moves felt trend like, i.e. that they would be part of a more sustained move to the upside or downside, it seems like the week is one of sideways. There are still two trading days to make the week one of green […]
March 31st Biotech Update
The sector looked like it was going to have a nice continuation day yesterday but the afternoon ended up being a mess. It is nice to see that it is not continued into this morning but we really do not want to start the pattern of green in the morning only to reverse later in […]
March 25th Biotech Update
Still not a lot of news in the sector. I am encouraged that we continue to maintain this range and consolidate at these levels. The key next will be to break out of this range to the upside and ideally it is done on the back of some positive fundamental news (M&A or positive data […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
