Well, we have seen this show way too many times. The sector is absolutely bidless and while there does not seem to be panic per se there is an absolute indifference to the selling. To me it just looks like no interest whatsoever to buy the sector and no one remains in size that can […]
January 21st Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
Not a lot to write at this point as we are past JPM and coming up to earnings season. The market is just relentless at this point and while we bounced off the opening low, the rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday. There have been so many strange aspects of […]
January 20th Biotech Update
Not much new is going on at this point. The sector does not look good and one should think there is more downside but it is already stretched to the downside. The selling just seems relentless so far and at some point one has to ask where the marginal sellers are coming from. The generalists […]
January 19th Biotech Update
Do you have whiplash yet? Yesterday was and I fully expected a bloodbath to open the market today and I was thinking that could setup a nice tradable low (the old gap lower to really push an extremely oversold market to ludicrously oversold) but opening a little higher today makes it less clear. I am […]
January 18th Biotech Update
So it looked really bad last Friday and it was quite the comeback rally. Unfortunately it seems like the broader market is not looking very good and I cannot imagine a scenario with a broader market/risk off move and the sector somehow moves higher. I guess one can never say never but it seems exceptionally […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update
The sector cannot help itself and stress investors. We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside. My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise). Given the lack of really positive news or […]
January 12th Biotech Update
I think the big news that was going to drop this week has dropped. There are still a lot of companies I am going to be following up with so there is still plenty to write about but I do not big new news coming. Given the lack of M&A and some negative news the […]
January 11th Biotech Update
I am a little surprised with the reversal yesterday. The lack of M&A and the news not being that great was setting the sector up to break to new lows. The fact that we were able to reverse is quite encouraging. Of course, we have all seen this picture before and we have routinely been […]
January 10th Biotech Update
Well, if you thought JPM 2021 was a disappointment you had not seen JPM 2022. While there can still be individual stock news I think the lack of any significant deals means that M&A is not going to be a theme in this conference. I guess the one advantage we have this year is that […]
January 7th Biotech Update
We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today. If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week. Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]
January 6th Biotech Update
The sector is not having a good start to the year. I saw someone post a chart that compared the performance of the XBI pre-JPM to how it perform during and after JPM. It was really not a strong relationship but in the years where the XBI was red pre-JPM it tended to do poorly […]
January 5th Biotech Update
Well, the New Year started off so well but it feels a lot like last year. To be fair that is not completely surprising as simply changing the calendar does not alter the fundamentals of the sector. Yesterday (and the early morning today) feels like rotation in the belief that Omicron will not crash the […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
December 21st Biotech Update
The sector is really trying to confuse me. I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market. It seemed to me that they […]
December 20th Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week but we are really just bouncing around at the recent lows. I suspect we are going to be moving with the market in that if the market rallies the sector moves higher and perhaps outperforms but if the market breaks down we break the lows and likely […]
December 16th Biotech Update
Is it really as simple as interest rates? All of the thinking through the sector and fundamental analysis and the sector rallied hard on a somewhat more dovish (or less aggressive) Fed. It looks like the trading yesterday also sets up the potential for a double bottom assuming that we can continue this rally and […]
December 15th Biotech Update
It really seems like we are at the point of the bear market that nothing really matters. Typically we talk about M&A or data or launches as being catalysts that could bring interest back into the sector. Nothing seems to work at this point. There is no big push for drug price reform. We have […]
December 13th Biotech Update
We finally got a merger Monday and this should boost the sector. So far the sector is doing well in a generally bad market environment and hope this continues. There are certainly some non-sector related risks to the market that would hit biotech but as long as they remain muted, we should be able to […]
