We finally had our bounce start but yesterday has to be the start. If we end up giving it back today that is not a good sign. Starting the morning red is OK but we need to close green and build on the momentum that was started yesterday. There is no reason that the bounce […]
December 7th Biotech Update
So we did not have a bad day yesterday, although that only really is true if you look at the absolute performance and not the relative performance. That being said it was still better than what we have seen recently. We are set for a green start to the day and have some positive news […]
December 6th Biotech Update
We started lower this morning which is not that bad. I think if we rallied off the start then we likely give it up but a dip to flush out the frustrated traders (and let us be honest that is all of us at this point) might clear the deck for a really rally later […]
December 3 Biotech Update
The sector remains the most painful of all sectors. We got a little rally yesterday only to be crushed this morning. This sort of trading is very frustrating especially because the sector is so oversold that there should be some dead cat bounce rally coming at the very least. One can see the move today […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector is good at one thing and that is creating despair and frustration. The selloff has just been relentless and this is very much sentiment related. You can have relentless selling when fundamentals change, i.e. the energy sector at the start of the pandemic when the economy was shut down. There is nothing happening […]
December 1st Biotech Update
It is hard to be optimistic with the sector. We are well overdue for a bounce and if we assume that we are in a bear market these rallies can be significant. I have been looking at the sector as being in a large range and now that has been clearly broken. Is there a […]
November 29th Biotech Update
I think we are likely going to look back at Friday and see it as an Omicron overreaction given that it is still unclear if this mutation is more dangerous than delta or can outcompete delta as the dominant strain. In addition, all the oral treatments that are on the way will still work against […]
November 24th Biotech Update
There is little doubt now that the sector has to rally. It does not matter if the broader markets are weak or whatever, we have broken (at least temporally) the low end of the range. We closed above it yesterday and ended green but there is not a lot of room lower and to have […]
November 22nd Biotech Update
The sector looks absolutely sick at this point but we are now down 12 of the last 13 days and are at the bottom end of the range. That is screaming reversal in that the sector is clearly oversold and is at a level that has been consistent support. It is possible that we become […]
November 19th Biotech Update
Guess what? We are stuck in a range and no one cares really about anything that happens in the sector. I grant that the news coming out of the sector this year has been pretty bad. The regulatory setbacks and clinical setbacks have been pretty non-stop. Add in the lack of a compelling drug launch […]
Nov 18th Biotech Update
Today should be a good day. We were near the bottom end of the range where support should exist and the sector was oversold. As such, we were probably likely to bounce and today we got some M&A. While the deal was itself not a massive deal the timing works out for the sector to […]
November 17th Biotech Update
The sector is doing what it does. It is remaining in the range and aggravating investors with it continued under performance. This should be a seasonally strong period but we remain stuck in the range. Perhaps investors still have some lingering concerns about drug pricing reforms and the details that are being worked out. Or […]
November 15th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Guess what? The sector remains in its range and remains very frustrating for investors in the sector. Nothing particularly interesting this Monday to start the week. I sort of wonder if the range is narrowing a little as we did not really make a run at what was the upper end of the range and […]
November 12th Biotech Update
More of the same for the sector and nothing that compelling is coming out of SITC to spark interest. Without anything that could really change broad sentiment I expect continued grinding in the range. Obviously the range will not last forever but as long as we remain in the range we should assume that will […]
November 11th Biotech Update
I do not want to sound like a broken record but the sector remains in its range bouncing around. The breakout (or breakdown) will occur at some point but I do not think there is a predicable catalyst that we can point to as triggering the range break. The longer we go in this range […]
November 10th Biotech Update
Guess what, the sector remains range bound. We approached the upper end of the range and it was a pretty quick move to the upper end of the range but now we are pulling back. I thought there was a chance that the sector would get closer to the upper end of the range before […]
November 5th Biotech Update
We have an interesting setup for the sector. It looked for a bit like the momentum was going to take it to the upper end of the end where it would stall. It stalled yesterday fairly short of the upper end of the range. The selloff yesterday and this morning are sort of resetting the […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The sector has certainly strung a couple of good days together and it is probably in overbought territory as we approach the upper end of this long term range. The top of the range has been around the $137-$142 level and that seems like a pretty large ran for a top. Ideally we would want […]
November 3nd Biotech Update
The sector seems to be building some momentum (dare I say) but I guess it shows how low expectations were that two strong days in a row seems like such an accomplishment. We did get a drug price proposal in the bills in congress but it is a win for the sector. It allows […]
November 1st Biotech Update
A good start to the week but it is early in many ways. We would want to see this momentum build throughout the day and more importantly build across the days. The sector has had the occasional positive day but it has been a real struggle to string positive days together. Hopefully this is […]
