June 16th Biotech Update

Interesting market.  It seemed clear that the sell off was COVID related as we saw the vaccine names as well as the PPE names outperform (and remain green) during the recent selling.  In my mind that added some support to the idea that the support levels in the market might not hold.  Yesterday we saw […]

June 15th Biotech Update

The sector is right at a point of decision. The XBI is below the $100 level but if you look back it peaked at the $99 level late December and again in mid-February.  A close below $99 signals a breaking of the recent range and I would become more bearish.  We have not quite done […]

June 11th Biotech Update

Still not a lot to talk about but the market is starting to feel heavy.  That being said we remain rangebound in the sector.  Sure we are getting these swings and significant red days but we still are basically trading sideways.  This is not true for the broader market that seems more like a top […]

June 9th Biotech (and MLP) Update

Not much to talk about today after yesterday relative flood of news.  The sector remains in its range and despite the negative start, the sector did make a move higher towards the upper end of its range.  The market in general appears disconnected from the economic fundamentals (at least that is the twitter consensus) but […]

June 8th Biotech Update

An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least.  The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising.  My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]

June 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update

I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat.  It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back.  First, MRNA […]

June 2 Biotech Update

The market held up well yesterday and so far this morning.  Perhaps I am alone in finding this an odd strength given all the issues and it leads to the question of who is buying the market at these level and fundamental context?  Long term value investors?  Unlikely as we know Buffet is not buying.  […]

June 1st Biotech Update

With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat.  Riots.  COVID.  China tensions.  Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient.  Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]

May 29th Biotech Update

We got a lot of ASCO data to sort through as well as stock reactions.  It is going to take awhile just to look through all the data and probably weeks for the sector to digest all the news.  I doubt we will see the data move the sector out of its range but sometimes […]

May 27th Biotech Update

The sector sells off as later in the morning yesterday and on the open today.  This remains consistent with my contention that we could be in for a range bound market.  It is going to take a couple more round trips between the highs and lows of the range to really convince me (and likely […]

May 22nd Biotech Update

The ups and downs continue as we remain in what could be the developing range.  I could be wrong but I think a range bound market would be the most frustrating and money losing market for the largest number of people and hence is the likely outcome.  Money might just rotate between sectors moving them […]

May 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update

The past two weeks or so has seen some large moves on a daily basis and yet there has basically been very little movement in the sector (or market writ large).  There seems to be a continued bull versus bear debate ongoing in the market and the basic outlines (if you have seen these articles) […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

May 15th Biotech Update

I figured the sector was hoping for a merger Monday to really continue the push from Friday.  Instead we got a Moderna Monday that is pushing not just the sector but the market.  There is really not much more news that I can tell but the ultimately it looks like the old resistance level on […]

May 14th Biotech Update

So we are in the pullback to the breakout levels and the sector has some decision making to do.  Either this level holds and we confirm the breakout or we make our way lower and the “breakout” looks like a blow off top.  A breakdown would not be a great signal (obviously) but this would […]

May 13th Biotech Update

Are we heading to the pullback that confirms the breakout?  Perhaps but we could also be in the frustrating the bears phase of the move.  Remember that the most common outcome of a market that makes a new all time high is to have another day that makes a marginal new high.  In other words, […]

May 12th Biotech Update

We had our breakout and run yesterday and while there is little follow through today, I suspect that we get a continuation.  It appears that the breakout is happening but the confirmation still needs to occur.  The final signal would be to test the old resistance level with a selloff and to rally off the […]

May 8th Biotech Update

We keep smacking our heads against the resistance above and the more times we hit it the better the chance it breaks.   The sector news has been positive and the broader market is still grinding higher, so the broader fundamentals appear supportive of a break.  The flip side is that if we cannot breakout within […]

May 7th Biotech Update

Earnings continue and the themes are basically the same.  They are generally good if not better than expectations but they remain cautious for the rest of the year. The sector is certainly rebounding from the selling late last week but there seems to be this odd late day selling despite strength during most of the […]

May 5th Biotech Update

So it is looking like the late last week selling was a pause that refreshes and the demand for the sector continues.  We still likely have a wall of resistance at $100 on the XBI, so it is not stunning that we paused when we reached that level.  A sustained move above that level would […]