All three SMIDs this week had positive news although only AMRN really took off on it. Of course, AMRN had the smallest positive move into the week and probably had the highest amount of doubts over the catalyst, so it sort of makes sense. I want to spend today going back over the other two […]
November 12th Biotech Update
I know the actual AdCom is in a couple of days but the briefing docs release today gave us the final move for this weekly trifecta. This could also be a good day for the sector if we can break above the recent highs, which should trigger another leg higher in the trend. The fundamentals […]
November 11 Biotech Update
This is not necessarily a big week for the sector (the trend still seems in intact) but certainly some big SMID catalyst for stocks that I follow. In fact, there will be a trifecta of news (two of which already happened) that could be meaningful. So let us dive into what had happened. 1. PIRS […]
November 6 Biotech Update
We remain in what seems like the trend. Day three of the pullbacks tends to be when we restart the move higher but yesterday ended marginally green instead of red so it is not completely predictable. In any case, we are getting close to what should be the higher low and expect a reversal today […]
November 5th Biotech Update
Let us see if the trend is our friend. We hit what should be some resistance and have stalled. Previously, this led to a day or two of a shallow pullback followed by a push to new highs. We are in the second day of a potential pullback so we should be setting up for […]
November 4 Biotech Update
Of course we get some meaningful news when I am unable to write but at least it was good news. And of course the sector does well when I am not here (but at least it did well). Looking at the chart there really seems like a nice little uptrend has developed with clear higher […]
October 29 Biotech Update
There is nothing that should stop the sector from running higher. Fundamentals look good and it has perhaps the best set of earnings among all sector this quarter. Of course, what it should do and what it does do not always correlate. Sentiment is still negative and could hold it down but fundamentals look good. […]
October 22 Biotech Update
I believe it is safe to say that we have some news today. I strongly suspect the news will be viewed as positive and should drive the sector higher. Let us dive into this news. Aducanumab work! Sort of. Perhaps. I cannot think of a drug that failed futility only to come back later and […]
October 16 Biotech Update
Some good news today and most was unexpected. Some needs more discussion than other but I want to touch on all of them. Ideally this will be the catalysts needed to continue the move higher especially given the lack of a macro catalyst. ALXN is buying ACHN for just under $1B. This requires the least […]
October 9th Biotech Update
We are potentially setting up well for the sector. Yesterday was a down day but was that the pullback to consolidate the bounce and start a trend higher? Maybe. We need to get over recent highs around $78 on the XBI and while we do not need that today we probably need to at least […]
October 8 Biotech Update
This is going to be an interesting couple of days for the sector. This is either the pullback to consolidate before another leg higher or the end of the dead cat bounce. Sentiment in the sector is awful. Sell side notes are talking about conversations with money managers with most simply seeing the sector as […]
October 7 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to start the week. Some interesting odds and ends but nothing to really be a sector mover, so I suspect it continues with the trend that it ended last week. We had a nice little bounce late last week and it could become more meaningful if we get a continuation […]
October 2 Biotech Update
Today seems like a reversal day. The sector has been down for 11 straight trading sessions and is at a support level. I would have thought that $74 on the XBI would have been stronger support but it busted right through even after the brutal selling. I am not huge into short term trading but […]
October 1 Biotech Update
We are probably due for a bounce in the sector as it has almost been straight down for a little bit. I think the $84 level on the XBI looks to be some support but that is still a couple points lower. Do we get to those levels before a bounce or has the selling […]
September 30 Biotech Update
The sector continued to underperform. I suspect part of this is a continuation of the overall underperformance and part is increasing fear around Warren’s rise in the polls. That is not going away anytime soon. Warren is not going to suddenly fall off a cliff and it is not as if she is the only […]
September 25th Biotech Update
I sound like a repeating record but the news have been pretty slow. I thought it was possible that the sector would break out higher but clearly that was not the case. It will be interesting to see how we respond today as we are now closer to some support. The market honestly seems a […]
September 24 Biotech Update
News remains slow but the macro remains in the background. There is a chance that China trade tensions ease (only before rising again) and Iran is fading into the memory (but this is not over yet). Unfortunately, the market is rallying a little but the sector seems stuck in the mud. It is a little […]
September 23 Biotech Update
Again another slow start to a week. We did survive the weekend without the macro getting worse. I am still not convinced we are out of the woods on the Middle East yet but for now it seems to have faded into the background. It is hard to predict when it will come to the […]
September 18 Biotech Update
Not much happening in the sector or markets outside of the ongoing issues in the Middle East. We will likely get a press conference today that blames Iran for the attacks but that does not help answer the critical questions, which is the response. There really seem to be few good responses as a kinetic […]
September 17 Biotech Update
So I was thinking that any response to the attacks on Saudi Arabia would happen sooner rather than later but I am no longer convinced that remains the case. Clearly Saudi Arabia was taken by surprise and so it needs to tighten its defenses before escalating the situation (if they choose to escalate). A kinetic […]
