October 16 Biotech Update

Some good news today and most was unexpected. Some needs more discussion than other but I want to touch on all of them. Ideally this will be the catalysts needed to continue the move higher especially given the lack of a macro catalyst. ALXN is buying ACHN for just under $1B. This requires the least […]

October 9th Biotech Update

We are potentially setting up well for the sector. Yesterday was a down day but was that the pullback to consolidate the bounce and start a trend higher? Maybe. We need to get over recent highs around $78 on the XBI and while we do not need that today we probably need to at least […]

October 8 Biotech Update

This is going to be an interesting couple of days for the sector. This is either the pullback to consolidate before another leg higher or the end of the dead cat bounce. Sentiment in the sector is awful. Sell side notes are talking about conversations with money managers with most simply seeing the sector as […]

October 7 Biotech Update

Not a lot of news to start the week. Some interesting odds and ends but nothing to really be a sector mover, so I suspect it continues with the trend that it ended last week. We had a nice little bounce late last week and it could become more meaningful if we get a continuation […]

October 2 Biotech Update

Today seems like a reversal day. The sector has been down for 11 straight trading sessions and is at a support level. I would have thought that $74 on the XBI would have been stronger support but it busted right through even after the brutal selling. I am not huge into short term trading but […]

October 1 Biotech Update

We are probably due for a bounce in the sector as it has almost been straight down for a little bit. I think the $84 level on the XBI looks to be some support but that is still a couple points lower. Do we get to those levels before a bounce or has the selling […]

September 30 Biotech Update

The sector continued to underperform. I suspect part of this is a continuation of the overall underperformance and part is increasing fear around Warren’s rise in the polls. That is not going away anytime soon. Warren is not going to suddenly fall off a cliff and it is not as if she is the only […]

September 25th Biotech Update

I sound like a repeating record but the news have been pretty slow. I thought it was possible that the sector would break out higher but clearly that was not the case. It will be interesting to see how we respond today as we are now closer to some support. The market honestly seems a […]

September 24 Biotech Update

News remains slow but the macro remains in the background. There is a chance that China trade tensions ease (only before rising again) and Iran is fading into the memory (but this is not over yet). Unfortunately, the market is rallying a little but the sector seems stuck in the mud. It is a little […]

September 23 Biotech Update

Again another slow start to a week. We did survive the weekend without the macro getting worse. I am still not convinced we are out of the woods on the Middle East yet but for now it seems to have faded into the background. It is hard to predict when it will come to the […]

September 18 Biotech Update

Not much happening in the sector or markets outside of the ongoing issues in the Middle East. We will likely get a press conference today that blames Iran for the attacks but that does not help answer the critical questions, which is the response. There really seem to be few good responses as a kinetic […]

September 17 Biotech Update

So I was thinking that any response to the attacks on Saudi Arabia would happen sooner rather than later but I am no longer convinced that remains the case.  Clearly Saudi Arabia was taken by surprise and so it needs to tighten its defenses before escalating the situation (if they choose to escalate).  A kinetic […]

September 11th Biotech Update

(Sorry for the delay.  The site worked but we had an issue with posting new articles.  It is now fixed) The resilience of the sector is a little surprising and could pay off.  It had been looking like a breakdown candidate but never followed through on that potential.  Now it is looking like a breakout […]

September 10 Biotech Update

Surprise.  The sector is weak.  I am a little surprised that we are not see a faster sell off as clearly there is no momentum and we have broken support.  This really seems like a nice and orderly sell off and this is not necessarily good.  The selling does not end when there is no […]

September 9th Biotech Update

We have some interesting news to start the week and of course it leads to a flat sector with the broader market green.  It seems like the sector is underperforming and again I think that is odd given how well the earnings came through last quarter.  Perhaps we are close enough to the election that […]

September 3 Biotech Update

We remain in the summer doldrums but more than that we are stuck in the macro issues. Between a potential recession to the China trade war, it is virtually impossible to get through a week without something whipping the sector and market. Today we might actually be getting to a point where China starts to […]

August 29th Biotech Update

I will keep this short and sweet as there is little news to talk about. On the positive side, the sector seems to be doing better and while I would not call it a false breakdown yet, the possibility remains. Clearly we need a continuation rally but we got exactly what we needed yesterday. Today […]

August 28 Biotech Update

I think today is the day. The sector is at a very precarious positon. It has dropped below what was support but I still think it has a chance to make that into a false breakdown. A rally above that previous support level and one that strengthens as the day continues is crucial. The worst […]

August 23 Biotech Update

So the sector feels a lot worse than the chart indicates. We are right around support at $80 and that seems to have been holding. We are approaching, however, a decision point. We can break below what is support for a leg down or break out of the downward trending making that look like a […]

August 21 Biotech Update

Broadly speaking the sector and market are doing well. Sentiment has been pretty negative and there were some macro concerns. This seems to be easing a bit, so a rally might be in the offing but how many times have we been burning at the start of rallies with some new macro concern jumping to […]